Why Summer season is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World


Why Summer season is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World

Walt Disney World is having a gradual summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait occasions are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to tug new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and supply our theories for the summer time slowdown.

The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first printed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the 12 months in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as unhealthy as up to now. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.

Final 12 months, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. If you need a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Stoop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this 12 months is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer season 2025.

You may discover that the titles of those posts have ‘developed’ over time. The primary was that summer time just isn’t peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a couple of decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with immediately makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because total Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even method its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)

Actually, Summer season 2025 has been so gradual to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. Once I first began engaged on this, there was a robust case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week forged doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the fact that August and September will probably be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?

From my perspective, the reply isn’t any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose which means. So as an alternative we’ll keep on with cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has grow to be. It’s positively not peak season, however it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.

Although June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll seemingly be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as an entire) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by greater highs to steadiness out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the way in which of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we must always name summer time the “constantly uncomfortable season,” which is obscure but 100% correct.

Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.

June 2025 Crowds

June has been the slowest month of the 12 months to this point, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of two/10. As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless signifies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile points of interest.

There have additionally been loads of days which have been busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. In contrast, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait occasions bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.

To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value mentioning that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘useless’ days. Actually, in the event you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final 12 months. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a task in September and October).

Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. This can be a development that’s a number of years working, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Celebration Season begins. As an entire, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each instances).

Should you’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may most likely anticipate one thing comparable in June 2026. Aside from that, probably not a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.

Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.

Mainly, any concept that may be contradicted by greater crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. greater costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This may increasingly appear apparent, however it’s nonetheless needed as a result of discussing attendance has grow to be a loaded subject with many followers who need to see their very own narratives bolstered. Should you consider that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s definitely your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence type of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’re going to, later this 12 months.

With that out of the way in which, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…

Epic Universe

We’d as properly begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I consider it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However fairly, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these eager to see Disney “taken down a notch.”

My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no internet influence on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some influence on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this 12 months. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando resulting from Epic Universe and in addition visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).

It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we have now information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.

On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer visitors than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait occasions usually replicate excessive attendance, they will additionally replicate low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait occasions resulting from low throughput masking low attendance (acquired all that?!).

We will additionally look to attend occasions information for Common Orlando. The resort as an entire is about on par with final 12 months’s numbers, however in the event you have a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final 12 months. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.

Worldwide Journey

Throughout the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen successful to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).

When it comes to the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for latest worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an influence” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.

What Disney expects going ahead is one thing much like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information exhibits that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting the same dynamic from Europe.

Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers should not that vital of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed house, it might be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.

It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Larger Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month whole stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.

Worldwide visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier document from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. In fact, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was almost 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!

Financial Uncertainty

Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they have to be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their latest earnings calls.)

Johnston mentioned that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase had been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate needs to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of occasions.”

All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you would get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since at the very least 2019. That’s type of loopy in the event you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. This can be a development we anticipate to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer time additional reducing in 2026 and past.

On the similar time, we’ve repeatedly cited shopper confidence, financial anxiousness, ongoing inflation, Individuals being squeezed from each path, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we hold listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American shopper is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.

It could appear that folks specific concern, anxiousness, and issues when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader financial system versus their very own funds–and has been for just a few years.) In different phrases, it is a non-factor…for now?

Starlight Delays

Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Night time Parade and/or Check Monitor opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of visitors postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.

They had been, primarily, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (one among my theories is that the complexity of accessing new points of interest has given visitors chilly toes about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.

Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 resulting from Epic Universe (visitors “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact will probably be all that significant.

Shifting Schedules

Again once we first tackled this matter in 2017, shifting schedules was provided as one rationalization–extra faculties switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden incidence that started in the previous couple of years. Faculty calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.

I’m far more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to resulting from college breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.

Nonetheless, we might posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to tug their children out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly more readers who do precisely this. We will’t again it up with onerous stats, however it passes the scent check and appears extremely believable to us.

Equally as necessary given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many Individuals have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable choice for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.

As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in a variety of locations we frequent. It was the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates had been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the very best rationalization, in our view, because it exhibits the redistribution of attendance in motion.

Excessive Warmth & Humidity

Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida just isn’t a latest improvement, so this ought to be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures constantly within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º.

Should you take Disney at its phrase, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably unhealthy climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on just a few extra events.

It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first motive for decrease attendance. Provided that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as extra believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.

Relating to climate, the massive wild card now’s consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down obstacles, and what was an abstraction within the textual content of varied books and sources is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other solely to see your favourite vlogger sweat their manner round World Showcase. The previous you is likely to be extra more likely to dismiss, questioning simply how unhealthy it may very well be. The latter is far more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.

Add to that the aforementioned willingness to tug children out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have elevated data decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip college may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.

The inducement level extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them may bear the climate if Disney provides them a motive to take action, as was the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for just a few years, although. On high of that, I’d hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants just isn’t suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning through the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).

This comfort-seeking conduct additionally explains why seems like crowds or congestion is decrease through the summer time. Whereas within the winter visitors may wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait occasions are elevated relative to attendance through the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks usually look useless from June by way of September even when the wait occasions don’t at all times replicate that.

Shorter Hours

I really feel like a damaged document about this, however again once we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours had been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Additional Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.

Having the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple option to mitigate the excessive warmth.

Fortunately, Starlight will convey again these 11 pm closings, however it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is at present open for an hour after sundown. There’s a motive why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra fashionable through the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks as if a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.

No Particular Occasions

Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the shortage of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Vast World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s seemingly that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees the same summer time slowdown.

It’s as soon as once more Food plan EPCOT through the summer time, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final 12 months, at the very least there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there may be GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of outdated, and I can’t think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a special story.)

All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Possibly we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.

Minimal Mitigation

I additionally really feel like a damaged document about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its latest expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the 12 months. There’s little shade providing a option to escape the warmth or summer time showers.

It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely performed nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The preferred and latest areas of the parks–the locations folks spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable through the summer time has seemingly contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.

There are seemingly different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components is likely to be at play, and in mixture could have a noticeable influence, however I believe these variables can be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.

Finally, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a latest improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for just a few years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait occasions we’re at present seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since at the very least 2019 might reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.

Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time out of the blue appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. Should you beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, think about the likelihood that you simply did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as at all times.

What I’ll say is that no matter “good points” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions will probably be worn out by subjectively inferior every little thing else. Should you compelled me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I’d select the latter with out hesitation. I’d take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by the entire above, it might appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.

Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study motels on our Walt Disney World Motels Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a novel have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the very best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every little thing you want to know!

Your Ideas

Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!

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