Walt Disney World wait occasions are normally inflated. The precise versus posted wait occasions disparity for rides at Walt Disney World has been a identified subject for years and subject we’ve lined previously. For the explanations mentioned there, it’s normally a optimistic for company that improves satisfaction. (Up to date December 4, 2024.)
Nonetheless, we’ve obtained complaints about wildly inaccurate wait occasions and traces which are longer with worse waits than what the posted time steered. Many followers have reported this messing up their days in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom–and puzzled why this occurs.
This publish solutions that, explaining the primary causes of underestimated wait occasions as a basic matter. We additionally record a number of of probably the most infamous and high-profile offenders which are extra prone to have considerably inaccurate wait occasions, and share the primary causes for the discrepancies.
Let’s begin with some background into precise versus posted wait occasions at Walt Disney World. For starters, that is completely nothing new. Walt Disney World has been doing this for so long as I can bear in mind, which is at the very least the final couple of a long time. Anybody who has ever visited the parks and used standby traces to a major diploma for a couple of days can inform you that posted wait occasions are larger than precise ones as a rule.
Though it’s nothing new, this has been on the radar of extra followers in the previous few years, as Walt Disney World now has a monetary incentive to inflate wait occasions now that line-skipping is monetized through Lightning Lanes. That’s past the scope of this publish, and a subject we’ve mentioned earlier than.
As for the topic at hand, let’s clarify why wait occasions can typically be worse than what’s posted and the way typically this truly occurs…
It’s Getting Higher – This text was initially revealed final 12 months at a time when precise wait occasions had been everywhere as in contrast with posted ones. It was turning into extra frequent to attend longer than a posted wait time, which had been a rarity previously–posted wait occasions had been nearly all the time inflated.
Whereas this will nonetheless be an issue as of December 2024 for the explanations mentioned beneath, the final 6 months have been a lot better. It is a subject we just lately mentioned at size in Shorter Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World?!, which explains how–typically talking–utilization of Lightning Lanes is decrease. Fewer individuals within the quick lane signifies that each that and the gradual lane (standby line) transfer extra fluidly.
It additionally has cascading results. If an attraction does break down, there’s much less of a backlog of Lightning Lane company to “course of.” Disney issuing fewer Lightning Lanes within the first place signifies that the system gained’t all of the sudden be inundated by these company, inflicting the ratio of company to be pushed larger. (Talking of which, there’s no approach it’s at the moment 80:20, as mentioned beneath. It’s in all probability nearer to 50:50, if not barely in favor of standby!)
Posted wait occasions are nonetheless completely inflated the overwhelming majority of the time, however they’re as soon as once more inflated by constant and predictable percentages for probably the most half. And it nonetheless is feasible to attend longer than the posted time for the explanations mentioned right here. It’s only a lot much less frequent than on the similar time final 12 months, as traces are typically flowing as they need to.
Overstated vs. Underestimated Waits – This may seem to be an odd subject for a publish, since “everybody” is aware of that Walt Disney World notoriously inflates wait occasions. And we’re not suggesting in any other case. There’s actually no debating whether or not that is taking place, and is customary working process. In reality, I doubt there’s a single attraction at Walt Disney World that doesn’t have an inflated wait time, on common. Precise waits being shorter than posted waits is the rule, not the exception.
There are a number of the explanation why Walt Disney World intentionally inflates wait occasions. It’s helpful for crowd management and it’s good for visitor satisfaction–an extension of the ole “underpromise and overdeliver” mantra. It’s surprisingly easy: company shall be comfortable in the event that they wait much less time than is marketed, however sad in the event that they wait longer. Because it’s robust to make predictions which are 100% correct, it’s higher to err on the facet of inflation.
Over the course of the previous few years, our expertise throughout all of Walt Disney World has been that precise wait occasions common about two-thirds to 75% of posted wait occasions a lot of the day. That drops to round 50% at night time, if not decrease. These are averages. We’ve waited considerably much less and, on uncommon event, greater than the posted wait occasions. This publish is admittedly about these uncommon events, and explaining why that occurs, versus the traditional underpromise and overdeliver method.
Experience Breakdowns, Delays & Lightning Lanes – In the event you’re questioning why, as a basic matter, sights typically have longer precise wait occasions than what’s posted, downtime is the main clarification. Breakdowns or delayed openings are the apparent angle of this.
If an attraction usually operates for 10 hours per day however that drops to eight hours, it has successfully misplaced 20% of its capability whereas shedding some quantity of its demand that’s, extra possible than not, lower than 20%. Which means that just about as many individuals as earlier than the breakdown nonetheless need to experience it. Not all of them will be capable of, although, as a result of that’s not how numbers works.
That half is a math downside, but it surely’s not essentially apparent why wait occasions can be understated at this level. The straightforward reply is as a result of they’ve turn into much less predictable. Whereas Walt Disney World has a reasonably good thought of wait time developments over the course of a standard working day, that confidence drops as quickly as unintended circumstances happen.
It’s extra than simply that, although. Additional complicating issues is the Lightning Lane. You may suppose that since this all the time exists, it must be static and in addition a non-factor. However Walt Disney World has a number of ‘phases’ for Lightning Lanes primarily based on the circumstances.
Throughout regular operations, customary process requires a roughly 4:1 or 80:20 ratio of Lightning Lane to standby company on the the attraction’s merge level. Which means that for each one individual admitted into the load space (or wherever merge happens) via the common queue, 4 individuals are pulled from the Lightning Lane line. That is the baseline–the ratio solely will get much less favorable for the standby line!
Within the remaining part, the ratio might be as a lot as roughly 10:1. That is the unofficial-official inner steering for Solid Members, however operates alongside an off-the-cuff mandate: preserve the Lightning Lane line manageable. Which means that if there’s an enormous overflow queue of Lightning Lane company spilling out the attraction entrance entrance–and never simply due to a logjam on the touchpoints–Solid Members will use their discretion to deliver that down.
From this, it shouldn’t be tough to discern why a posted wait time may very well be understated. It’s nonetheless uncommon. Normally, when an attraction comes again up from downtime, Disney will massively inflate the wait with the intention to discourage individuals from leaping into the standby line. This helps with processing the backlog of Lightning Lane company, and in addition retaining expectations in examine because the standby line progress involves an absolute crawl. (Severely, a 30 minute precise wait on a 60 minute posted time doesn’t really feel like a win if you solely have a dozen or so company in entrance of you in line and also you’re shifting at a glacial tempo.)
Once more, the component of unpredictability is vital. Relying upon the length of the downtime, there is perhaps a backlog of a number of hours’ value of Lightning Lane company…and it’s tough to know after they’ll arrive. Additional complicating issues is the Multi-Expertise Lightning Lane, which might imply that an attraction or two breaking down can have outsized impacts on the accuracy of posted wait occasions just about park-wide.
As for the why of this…it additionally must be fairly apparent. Lightning Lanes value cash and Walt Disney World doesn’t need to be doling out refunds and restoration when these company. So naturally, they’re going to prioritize accommodating those that dropped the large bucks on Lightning Lanes over the commoners who “solely” spent hundreds of {dollars} on lodging and common ole park tickets. Hey, we’re not saying it’s a fantastic and truthful system–we’re simply telling you the way it works!
With that in thoughts, let’s undergo a couple of sights the place there could be a disconnect between the posted and precise wait occasions…
Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice – Normally, the extra in style the attraction, the upper the quantity of wait time inflation. Prime examples listed below are Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice, Peter Pan’s Flight, Frozen Ever After, Rock ‘n’ Curler Coaster, Slinky Canine Sprint, Millennium Falcon Smugglers Run, Avatar Flight of Passage, and Na’vi River Journey. This isn’t an exhaustive record.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice is so generally inflated following the fireworks that our Experience Information for Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice extremely recommends doing that attraction after the fireworks and ignoring the posted wait time. That is persistently and predictably overstated, and that’s completely by design. It’s to discourage company from leaping in line on the finish of the night time so Magic Kingdom might be cleared faster.
With all of that stated, there are uncommon events when the posted wait time truly underestimates the the precise wait. That is normally because of the dreaded delayed opening, which has an accordion impact since so many individuals attempt to do the ‘SDMT Shuffle’ with the intention to experience Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice throughout Early Entry or at common rope drop.
Slinky Canine Sprint – Fairly comparable state of affairs right here. More often than not, Slinky Canine Sprint has exaggerated wait occasions.
My idea, and I’ve no approach of proving this, is that wait occasions are all the time tougher to foretell with Slinky Canine Sprint even within the absence of breakdowns. That’s as a result of that is the preferred Lightning Lane attraction in all of Walt Disney World, and because of this, company are sometimes “compelled” into later return occasions. You probably have younger children, it is perhaps overly optimistic to suppose you’ll nonetheless be in DHS at 7 pm, but when that’s your solely possibility for this robust Lightning Lane…you’re in all probability going to take it!
Moreover, company can hit a wall (exhausting!) at Disney’s Hollywood Studios in contrast to another park at Walt Disney World. Between these two components, I’d be prepared to wager that the “abandonment price” of Slinky Canine Sprint Lightning Lanes is fairly excessive. That’s one other wildcard that makes its wait occasions much less constant and predictable.
Rock ‘n’ Curler Coaster – It is a little bit of an artifact, as Rock ‘n’ Curler Coaster has had fewer wait time woes within the second half of this 12 months. Within the first half and final 12 months, it was a standard supply of frustration as a result of multi-hour and even multi-day downtime.
The coaster nonetheless does expertise closures that may throw a monkey wrench into issues, however they’re far much less frequent. If we had been making this record primarily based on the final 3 months alone, I doubt RnRC would make the minimize.
Kilimanjaro Safaris – That is truly a kind of enjoyable one which isn’t instantly obvious, however when you hear the reason, it makes good sense and appears apparent in hindsight.
It’s the animals. All it takes is one cussed rhino–jealous of the hippopotamus who was pet by Bob Chapek, and in search of a present govt to name their pal–to get within the street and block the automobile path for ~10 minutes to throw a severe monkey wrench into operations.
In speaking to former safari drivers, regardless of this being a reasonably frequent incidence, even a few temporary delays can have outsized impacts on each the standby and Lightning Lanes. It truly caught me abruptly simply how a lot of a ripple impact the critter visitors jams could cause.
Jungle Cruise – Considerably akin to Kilimanjaro Safaris, besides plot twist, the animals inflicting the difficulty listed below are people. The pretend wildlife don’t have any bearing on operational effectivity.
The large variable right here is inconsistency within the variety of boats in circulation, which is down throughout the board in the previous few years. Therefore Jungle Cruise climbing up the wait occasions chart–it’s not all concerning the monkey insanity from the reimagining or the film a couple of years in the past.
Though I don’t have something to again this up past my anecdotal observations, however I additionally suppose wait occasions are extra inconsistent with Jingle Cruise. I’ve seen wait occasions shoot up for that overlay, particularly across the begin of the MVMCP mix-in or round sundown.
Tower of Terror – It has been an up-and-down 12 months for the Twilight Zone Tower of Terror. Its common wait time shot up final spring, then plummeted in direction of the top of summer time earlier than rapidly rising once more within the winter. This dynamic was as a result of a prolonged “stealth” refurbishment that took every elevator shaft down, with a spot in between the downtimes. That meant that the attraction was successfully working at half-capacity for about 4 months on two completely different events.
On the plus facet, that was constant and predictable inside these timeframes–the downtime was a identified amount and constructed into posted wait occasions. On the draw back, it’s not unusual for an elevator shaft to go down unexpectedly. When that unplanned downtime happens after Lightning Lanes have already been distributed, don’t be shocked should you get caught in a longer-than-quoted line. (The multiphase nature of Tower of Terror additionally doesn’t assist with wait time accuracy. We measure the wait to the primary pre-show, however you may really feel in a different way about that!)
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance – Saving the most effective for final, Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance was the inspiration (nicely, together with Kilimanjaro Safaris) for this publish within the first place. That’s doubly true throughout occasions like proper now.
Throughout peak vacation weeks, this attraction typically has standby wait occasions of 2-3 hours. When the road is that lengthy, the chances of a breakdown occurring when you’re in line are fairly excessive. (There was some extent when Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance was nearly assured downtime at the very least each 3 hours. Fortunately, its reliability has gotten much better.)
A breakdown of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance typically requires a full experience reset, which suggests roughly an hour of downtime. Including insult to harm, when the attraction returns from being damaged down and has a backlog of Lightning Lane company, guess who it’s going to prioritize? In the event you picked those that have been patiently ready, caught within the standby line over the individuals paying further, boy do I’ve some unhealthy information for you.
At its worst, this will imply {that a} posted 180 minute wait time for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance truly finally ends up being extra 240 minutes. That’s “solely” 60 minutes further as a result of that 180 minute time was nearly definitely inflated to start with. Walt Disney World nonetheless builds a large buffer into Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance as a result of the attraction is liable to breakdowns and delays.
Much less excessive examples contain it having been an up-and-down day for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance however you’re not in line throughout a breakdown. In that situation, there’s nonetheless a backlog of Lightning Lane company, however that is normally mirrored within the posted wait time. Not all the time, although, and that ~100 minute posted wait time might flip into 120 minutes.
The flip facet to that is that the 75 minute posted wait time at 7:45 pm is perhaps an precise wait time of 20 minutes or much less. Once more, Disney builds a buffer into the wait time for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance as a result of its reliability woes. It’s one of many least-accurate wait occasions at Walt Disney World because of this, each over and underneath. As its downtime has decreased, its posted wait time is way more typically an overestimate lately. I’ve misplaced depend of what number of occasions we’ve executed it on the finish of the night time as a close to walk-on when the posted wait time was over 60 minutes. An enormous win to finish the day…and this publish!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever encountered precise wait occasions that had been worse than posted occasions at Walt Disney World? If that’s the case, at which sights? What has been your expertise with precise vs. posted wait occasions at Walt Disney World? What about with experience downtime and breakdowns? Do you suppose most to be inflated, correct, or understated? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
