Walt Disney World resort availability is restricted for sure dates in 2024, prompting reader questions and issues about crowds. This put up addresses what’s occurring with the offered out resorts, regardless of the rise in discounting and exhaustion of pent-up demand, and commentary about potential causes for this.
If this seems like deja vu once more, it ought to. We’ve lined this very same subject two years in the past through the coronary heart of Walt Disney World’s fiftieth Anniversary celebration. Again then, “revenge journey” was all the fad, not each resort had reopened, and even those that have been operational had all of their buildings open as a consequence of staffing shortages.
Rather a lot has modified since then. Revenge journey has largely flamed out, and Walt Disney World truly has seen year-over-year decreases in each attendance and resort occupancy. (This isn’t merely hypothesis–that hyperlink goes to an earnings name the place Disney executives themselves acknowledged this.)
Equally as vital, the Port Orleans and All Star Resorts reopened, as did Animal Kingdom Lodge. And though there are nonetheless nagging staffing shortages, these have been largely addressed. Common housekeeping is again, with buildings and rooms all again on-line.
The top result’s that provide is now not constrained in any significant method, and demand shouldn’t be artificially heighted as a consequence of individuals making up for misplaced time. Provided that there are actually extra obtainable rooms within the stock and fewer individuals competing for mentioned lodging…what provides? Why are resorts nonetheless promoting out at Walt Disney World?
Truthfully, I don’t assume that is some big drawback. The one cause I’m addressing this in any respect is as a result of it has turn out to be a standard reader query in the previous few months, often pertaining extra to crowd ranges than issue in scoring a resort reservation. Which means planners who’ve already booked lodging proceed checking for availability as a result of they’re utilizing that as a sign for attendance or crowds. (We’ll circle again to this angle in a bit.)
Lots of longtime Walt Disney World followers aren’t used to resorts promoting out as a result of, traditionally, that didn’t occur a ton in 2019 or earlier. (This solely pertains to the motels and not Disney Trip Membership. By its very nature, DVC is designed to function at near 100% occupancy. For a wide range of causes past the scope of this put up, sure DVC resorts have absolutely booked up months upfront for a very long time–and that’s solely worsened since Aulani and the Poly bungalows.)
To make certain, some motels did promote out as did sure dates. Regardless of astronomical charges, the week between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve has all the time been a preferred time, and reservations could possibly be aggressive for some resorts or room classes. In the event you go method again, we’ve heard tales of followers reserving New Yr’s Eve 1999 as far upfront as potential out of fears about Y2K, and pondering that if wherever can be ‘protected,’ it’d be Disney. It in all probability would’ve been an analogous story for the precise day of Walt Disney World’s fiftieth Anniversary had that been throughout a standard time.
Setting apart these extremes, the underside line is that the resorts didn’t function wherever close to 100% occupancy pre-closure. The overwhelming majority of the time, there have been ample lodging choices obtainable–and never simply expensive suites or multi-bedroom villas. Chances are you’ll not be capable of rating the resorts at a reduction (Free Eating did ebook up, even throughout low season journey dates when the parks weren’t busy), however there was virtually all the time one thing to ebook.
Regardless that pent-up demand has largely exhausted itself now, Walt Disney World continues to be working from the next baseline. Some followers have (mis)interpreted these year-over-year declines as which means that the parks are lifeless or doing poorly. That isn’t even remotely the case–they’re simply down (barely!) from the record-setting numbers of 2022.
In different phrases, Walt Disney World overperformed in 2022, and now it’s underperforming relative to these file numbers as pent-up demand dies down…nevertheless it’s nonetheless overperforming relative to 2019 or earlier! CEO Bob Iger additionally has addressed this in the identical earnings calls when discussing decrease attendance and occupancy, stating that “Walt Disney World continues to be performing nicely above pre-COVID ranges: 21% larger in income and 29% larger in working revenue in comparison with FY2019.”
This isn’t only a Walt Disney World phenomenon. Vacationer improvement tax collections for Orange County, Florida fell year-over-year all through 2023, with November (the newest month for which there’s knowledge) marking the seventh lower in income within the final eight months, based on the county comptroller. (Vacationer improvement taxes are collected through a 6% tax on resort bookings.)
Between April and November 2023, each month noticed a lower in vacationer tax collections in comparison with 2022 besides September, which was solely up by 0.8%. Orlando resort occupancy was additionally down in comparison with 2022, at 69.8%, a drop of over 10% year-over-year. The typical each day price for motels was $180.44, down 4.2% year-over-year.
Nevertheless, the Orange County comptroller additionally indicated that 2022 was an “extraordinary” yr for Central Florida tourism after the pandemic, and that after that record-setting yr, it was not stunning that there can be a decline in Orange County tourism. Like Walt Disney World, the county as a complete continues to be up significantly as in comparison with 2019 and earlier.
Furthermore, Go to Orlando has reported that resort bookings for 2024 are already outpacing final yr by over 5%, and advance airline ticket gross sales into Orlando have been additionally up within the first quarter of 2024 by roughly 10%. Increased wait instances and our anecdotal perceptions of ‘looks like’ crowds to date in 2024 at Walt Disney World recommend that this pattern is taking part in out on the parks, too. (See Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World.)
That is itself noteworthy, as we had been anticipating an additional exhaustion of pent-up demand over the course of 2024. What if, as an alternative, this yr marks a rebound? That 2023 was the ‘off’ yr for households that go to semi-frequently, and so they’re returning to Central Florida in 2024. Kind of just like the accordion impact in visitors, however for pent-up demand. That coupled with diminishing fears of a recession and bettering shopper confidence, might end in a bounce-back yr for journey to the Orlando space.
For its half, Walt Disney World could possibly be doing what’s essential to incentivize followers to return, pulling the proper “levers,” and so on. We suspect that is the case with resort reductions, which have gotten extra aggressive within the final year-plus. Walt Disney World went from providing virtually no common public promos in 2022 to having its full slate of 2019 gives obtainable once more (e.g. Free Eating, bouncebacks, PIN codes), some with the most effective financial savings since 2018.
Whereas we anticipated offers like Free Eating to return for the late summer season and early fall low season, we have been truthfully a bit shocked by how aggressive Walt Disney World was at discounting common journey instances–like Spring Break and Easter. In an effort to keep away from an additional drop in occupancy, it’s potential Disney obtained too “beneficiant” with its particular gives, past what what was essential to hit reserving targets.
There’s additionally the truth that lots is going on in Central Florida and at Walt Disney World specifically. The Professional Bowl is developing. Conventions are slowly-but-surely returning. RunDisney has hit the bottom operating with its return. There are a number of occasions on the ESPN Large World of Sports activities on lengthy weekends all through the winter and spring months, and it wouldn’t shock us within the least if these are all larger than final yr.
These occasions can have a significant influence on resort room availability, as there are tons of attendees and so they take up big blocks of particular motels. That, in flip, reduces stock there and pushes different individuals to completely different motels. Actual world occasions just like the NFL Professional Bowl and WWE Monday Night time RAW have a equally oblique influence. Attendees ebook up motels round Orlando and flights into town, however seldom go to the theme parks.
Suffice to say, there’s a ripple impact felt all through motels within the area, together with WDW. That is true even with regards to occasions that aren’t occurring at Walt Disney World and may have minimal influence on crowd ranges.
To that time, on-site motels promoting out utterly may cause planners to freak out that the parks are going to be chaotic and crowded. Which could be true…typically. However there are a few issues to bear in mind.
The primary is that almost all of visitors within the parks at any given second come from off-site. This contains these staying in third celebration motels round Orlando, nevertheless it additionally contains the rising inhabitants in Central Florida and past inside driving distance. Locals may merely come out for the day when the climate is good, as a result of there’s a ticket deal, or to benefit from the present taste of EPCOT’s competition.
Furthermore, simply because somebody is occupying a room at Walt Disney World doesn’t imply they’re contributing to crowds. I can’t inform you what number of instances I’ve stayed at Coronado Springs when the resort has been completely slammed, however the buses to the parks have been downright lifeless. Different instances, the resort hasn’t appeared that busy, however the buses have been packed.
The discrepancy is convention-goers, who overwhelm parts of the resort infrastructure (and by infrastructure, I imply bars and sizzling tubs) however usually don’t attend the parks in the identical quantity as common ole vacationers. So the resort could possibly be at ~95% occupancy as a consequence of a conference, and it might really feel that method within the widespread areas…however not on the buses. In contrast, the resort could possibly be at ~65% occupancy and not using a conference, however really feel far worse on the buses. It’s all about demographics and the visitor combine.
It’s an analogous story with youth teams collaborating in sporting occasions on the ESPN Large World of Sports activities. To make certain, a few of these youth occasions can improve general crowd ranges within the parks. The larger ones particularly can have a cloth influence on the parks, particularly in case you go to the identical park as their whole (or massive parts of) their group attends.
Anecdotally, I’d say it’s way more widespread to see teams of cheerleaders or dancers within the parks than it’s a herd of white collar convention-goers sporting lanyards and Patagonia vests. However it’s additionally true that the youth teams are primarily there for the sporting occasions, and the park days are non-compulsory icing on the cake.
To some extent, it’s even potential that convention-goers and youth teams are occupying rooms and ‘blocking out’ visitors who would in any other case go to the parks. Whereas we are able to quibble over the extent to which this does or doesn’t happen, or this group or that contributes (or doesn’t) to crowds, the underside line is that resort availability (or lack thereof) shouldn’t be essentially a very good predictor of crowd ranges. There are too many transferring elements and added variables.
In the end, that ought to assist clarify what’s occurring with unavailable rooms at Walt Disney World…at the least to some extent. Greater than anything, I feel that is merely the “new regular.” There’s the next baseline degree of demand as in comparison with 2019 and earlier, Walt Disney World is pulling extra “levers” to maintain occupancy as shut as potential to that record-setting 2022, and there’s in all probability nonetheless “localized” pent-up demand for sure forms of journey–conventions, youth teams, worldwide visitors, and so on.
Once more, I don’t assume that is something to be involved about. I do assume it’s a captivating topic, and likewise suspect that it’ll be a pattern that lasts till the subsequent recession or financial downturn. Even when it’s now not thought of revenge journey, it’s in all probability honest to say that individuals have reevaluated their priorities and can proceed to position extra of an emphasis on in-person experiences and journey for the foreseeable future. Which means resort occupancy will stay excessive in Central Florida, at the same time as tons of recent motels proceed being constructed. Whether or not that’s sustainable indefinitely is one other subject for one more day, however it’s for now.
In the event you’re searching for key takeaways, the primary can be that–as mentioned above–motels being offered out doesn’t essentially imply heavy crowds. It’s actually a sign that could possibly be the case, nevertheless it’s hardly conclusive. Second, longtime Walt Disney World followers who used to do last-minute lengthy weekend journeys on a whim ought to begin making an attempt to plan earlier. I’ve talked about a number of instances that I’ve stayed at Coronado Springs and All Star Sports activities greater than another motels within the final two years. That has not been as a result of these are my two favourite resorts at Walt Disney World. Be taught from my errors and provides your self a bit extra lead time.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study motels on our Walt Disney World Inns Critiques web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Critiques. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys put up takes a novel take a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for all the pieces it’s essential to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever encountered plenty of offered out resorts at Walt Disney World throughout a time you didn’t anticipate to be busy in 2024? Ideas on resort stock does or doesn’t influence crowd ranges within the parks? What do you assume is driving the supply challenge at Walt Disney World? Do you assume pent-up demand is an ongoing challenge, with individuals (nonetheless) making up for misplaced time touring and never caring how a lot they’re paying? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
