Excellent news! The Crowds Capybara (aka “Bay Lake Beatrice”) noticed her shadow, predicting six or so weeks of low wait occasions at Walt Disney World. With Spring Break within the rearview mirror and summer season continues to be one other month-plus away, this can be a good forecast by the rodent–as we’re coming into “Shoulder Season.”
This crowd report shares wait occasions information, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and contours. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges subsequent month and all through Summer time 2025, in addition to how the opening week and months of Epic Universe at Common Orlando may influence Walt Disney World.
We’ll begin by having a look again on the final month-plus of Spring Break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll have a look at what our Spring Break 2025 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World obtained proper and mistaken with its predictions, and simply how dangerous Easter ended up being.
The excellent news is that the broad contours of the forecast ended up being correct. Our prediction was twin peaks of heavy crowds the week of Orange County’s recess and one other virtually a month later main as much as Easter, with considerably of a valley in early April. We had been overly aggressive predicting the beginning of Spring Break, however crowds had been heavy beginning March 17-29 and once more April 12-19. In each circumstances, peak crowds began a pair days after our forecast window and ended 1-2 earlier.
Equally notable had been the decrease factors. March 30 by way of April 11 noticed low to reasonable crowds, fairly much like what we’d count on through the upcoming Shoulder Season. That’s what a late Easter causes–a later second spike in Spring Break crowds, and in addition quasi-Shoulder Season in between.
Save for some Spring Break stragglers, ‘Shoulder Season’ has kind of already arrived at this level. We don’t count on one other excessive crowds week till October 2025, and even above-average weeks are going to be few and much between for the following a number of months.
As all the time, what’s coated in these “crowd” stories is definitely posted wait time information that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Lots will be gleaned from posted wait occasions, however it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
If you wish to perceive extra about these stories and crowd calendars, their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds, see our checklist of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Mistaken About Crowds. That’s price studying if you’d like a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, looks like crowds vs. wait occasions, and some pretty simple methods to “beat” the crowds.
Briefly, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
Because the lows of final September and October, Walt Disney World has gotten progressively. That may look like excellent news for the parks themselves, till you distinction the numbers with the identical months on a year-over-year foundation. December 2023 by way of March 2024 had been extremely sturdy, main us to query whether or not we had been seeing a reverberation of revenge journey at Walt Disney World.
That didn’t final. Crowds fell every month beginning in April, bottoming out through the fall low season (October was one thing of an anomaly on account of hurricanes). Crowds have risen since, however to nowhere close to the identical diploma because the earlier vacation season and winter. Spring Break is a really comparable story–wait occasions are down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation for the final two months.
Final yr, the typical for March was a 40 minute wait time or 7/10 crowd degree. March 2025 noticed a 36 minute common for five/10 crowds. April was truly similar each years: 34 minute waits for 4/10 crowd ranges. These comparisons aren’t apples to apples since Easter was in March final yr, that means we’d count on April 2025 to be busier. Additionally, the month isn’t over but, and the slowest days are nonetheless forward. That means that even with Easter, April 2025 may find yourself being slower than final yr.
Talking of which, above is a have a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 6 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be . The final bar is the present week (by way of April 27, 2025) and exhibits the Shoulder Season slowdown already in progress. Previous to that’s Easter, which is all the time the height week of Spring Break.
The earlier two weeks are the aforementioned ‘valley’ in early April 2025 after Southern college districts went on recess however previous to Easter week crowds heating up. As you’ll see within the day by day numbers, these yellow bars considerably overstate crowd ranges throughout these weeks.
The 2 bars earlier than that had been when Orange County and different college districts in Florida (to not point out the remainder of the US) went on break. Notice that none of those weeks had been 10/10 crowd ranges. The primary two weeks, in mid-to-late March, had been 6/10 ranges. Easter was “solely” 8/10, which can appear heavy–however that was the slowest Easter week we’ve seen since 2021.
Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide day by day numbers for Walt Disney World.
The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No big shock there, as crowds heading house earlier than the weekend has more and more change into the development. That is pushed by numerous components, however principally greater costs.
We additionally need to draw your consideration to the few inexperienced bars between the height weeks of Spring Break. These are 1/10 to three/10 crowd ranges the final two days of March and first week of April 2025. That was a good time to go to (I communicate from expertise!) and is price remembering for the following time Easter is so late. So file that data away till 2028, I suppose.
For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait occasions examine to Common Orlando, the development is about the identical, simply from a decrease baseline. As Comcast has reported on numerous earnings calls during the last yr, they’ve seen a pointy slowdown within the publish pent-up demand period–worse than Walt Disney World.
To that time, Comcast simply reported its earnings for the primary three months of the yr on April 24, 2025, and attendance dropped at Common’s theme parks in the US. Comcast reported that theme parks income was down 5.2% year-over-year, to $1.876 billion. The corporate attributed the decline partially on account of January’s wildfires, which compelled the momentary closure of Common Studios Hollywood. Adjusted EBITDA within the theme parks section additionally was down for the quarter by 32.1% year-over-year.
Whereas the wildfires unquestionably performed a job, there’s additionally this attention-grabbing development of each Comcast and Disney attributing decreases to externalities. The trend-line can be down at Common Orlando, so this isn’t simply a matter of the wildfires. In Common’s protection, there may be virtually definitely a ‘calm earlier than the storm’ with individuals suspending visits previous to the opening of Epic Universe.
However we’re additionally anticipating the primary few months of Epic Universe to underperform expectations, with softer bookings than initially anticipated. We’ll have a extra in-depth have a look at this quickly, however simply to be clear, it’s not trigger for long-term concern or an indication of disinterest in Epic Universe. Such a phenomenon isn’t unusual with main new openings, and Common ought to virtually definitely see a lift within the coming quarter because of Epic Universe. That’s type of a given, although, when including a brand new theme park to the combination.
It’s additionally price stating that the only greatest clarification for the year-over-year drop in wait occasions at Walt Disney World is the foremost modifications to its queueing insurance policies in late Could 2024. Wait occasions haven’t been as excessive since, even on comparably congested days. And as a reminder, the entire above measures are of posted standby wait occasions, which act as a proxy for crowds–they completely don’t congestion.
We defined why Walt Disney World is seeing decrease wait occasions throughout the board in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Shifting Quicker at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually price studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘looks like’ crowds and wait occasions.
The underside line is that the DAS modifications and, to a lesser extent, swap from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Go are having a major influence. It ought to go with out saying that there are controversies, downsides, and unlucky realities to the above. However the enchancment to the circulation of traces–standby and Lightning Lanes–in addition to decrease wait occasions can be simple.
Turning to on-the-ground observations, I’ve spent numerous time at Walt Disney World because the begin of Spring Break season. This included Orange County’s Spring Break, the height week of Easter, and the bottom degree week in between firstly of April.
As a common matter, I used to be pleasantly stunned by crowds. My most unfavourable expertise got here with making an attempt to make use of the Skyliner from Artwork of Animation to do Early Entry at EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. As regular, mornings had been fairly tough at DHS throughout busier dates (something 5/10 or above). Not precisely a brand new growth, although. Unsurprisingly, I additionally encountered excessive demand for Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind throughout complete discipline testing. (Outcomes of which can be nonetheless coming quickly!)
My most constructive experiences all got here at Magic Kingdom. (Properly, Animal Kingdom was additionally nice, however that’s to be anticipated.) There have been a number of days and nights at Magic Kingdom that had been a lot better than anticipated, and the expertise actually benefited from the 11 p.m. park hours extensions (though these had been rarer than final yr). Normally, I virtually all the time perceived decrease crowds at Magic Kingdom than the precise crowd ranges mirrored. That’s a pleasant feeling, and one that always isn’t the case at Magic Kingdom. (Granted, I prevented Fortunately Ever After, so I by no means skilled that exodus.)
Most apparently, my notion of Easter crowds was a lot better than anticipated. Truthfully, I by no means would’ve guessed that week had 8/10 crowd ranges whereas visiting the parks. I used to be totally ready to do a write-up about an unexpectedly gradual Easter week based mostly on my on-the-ground expertise, and was stunned that the degrees had been truly 8/10. A part of that was getting fortunate (or slightly, selecting accurately) my park visits every day, however crowds felt pretty reasonable.
If something, I’d’ve guessed that mid-March was worse than Easter week based mostly alone observations. Each had been unquestionably busier than final yr’s late summer season/early fall low season, however they didn’t really feel as dangerous because the worst weeks of winter. It most likely helped that the climate felt extremely comfy by spring requirements, and that may make up for lots. I’ll fortunately take a 6/10 day with nice temperatures than a 1/10 day with triple-digit “looks like” warmth and humidity.
Level being, wait occasions usually don’t inform the complete story of crowds at Walt Disney World. And conversely, anecdotal experiences of crowds and congestion are variable, which is why they’re unreliable. Others who visited throughout Easter week may ‘pontificate’ within the feedback with horror tales about simply how busy it was. That doesn’t make both of us mistaken–we simply had completely different experiences. Walt Disney World is an enormous place; it occurs.
Trying ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of Spring Break. We’ll have one other replace to our 2025 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars very quickly, however the backside line is that there are only a few ‘crimson flag’ dates within the coming months.
At this level, it’s mainly simply what’s at the moment on the ESPN Large World of Sports activities calendar. The subsequent couple of weekends, there are Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds, and the Summit occasions for a similar. All of these occasions happen the following couple of weeks and will trigger a slight bounce-back when it comes to crowds.
These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that enhance attendance on the parks and occupancy on the accommodations, often the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nonetheless, the influence on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t vital as an entire–and tends to be overblown based mostly on anecdotal experiences, which will be fairly dangerous. (That means that you possibly can suppose they’re a big unfavourable in case you’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a bunch of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you may by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)
Except for these cheer and dance occasions, that are price bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s Shoulder Season. That is the interval between two heavier seasons. I suppose that’s as a result of the shoulders are beneath the “peak” of the physique, or the pinnacle. During which case, maybe we should always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by college breaks. On account of this, far fewer friends in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a serious break. One main break simply occurred, and one other doesn’t begin for one more month-plus.
Final yr’s Shoulder Season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. Each single week in Could of final yr noticed beneath common crowds (together with these coinciding with cheer and dance occasions), with the three weeks main as much as Memorial Day being the slowest and having 2/10 to three/10 crowd ranges. Crowds rebounded the final week however had been nonetheless barely beneath common.
It’s not possible to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2025 Shoulder Season will probably be slower than final yr. I’m inclined to foretell that it’ll. Final yr, Walt Disney World obtained aggressive in releasing offers to forestall a collapse in crowds (as occurred in Could 2023). For every of the final two years, reductions have been launched alongside an identical timeframe, and with comparable high quality/amount for this time of yr.
On condition that, and the truth that crowd ranges have been down just about throughout the board as soon as adjusted for Easter, it appears protected to foretell a slower Shoulder Season than final yr. There’s additionally the fact that completely nothing that counts as a serious draw to Walt Disney World is debuting between now and Memorial Day.
Accordingly, we’d most likely count on to see extra 1/10 to three/10 days than final yr, and fewer 4/10 and 5/10 days. It most likely gained’t be a dramatic distinction, however it may be sufficient that we will name Could 2025 the low season versus Shoulder Season.
Trying ahead, the opening of Epic Universe is Could 22, 2025. Usually, the Thursday earlier than Memorial Day is usually when crowds begin to decide up, which is why Common Orlando selected to open Epic Universe on that day. So far as how the opening of Epic Universe will influence crowds at Walt Disney World, it’s tough to say–there’s not precisely a ton of precedent for the way new competing theme parks alter attendance at Walt Disney World.
One factor to notice is that paid previews of Epic Universe have been underway for a couple of week, and have up to now had zero influence on Walt Disney World attendance. Granted, they had been introduced final minute and the eligibility pool is proscribed (for now), however up to now, these haven’t even been a blip on the radar for EPCOT and Animal Kingdom (the 2 parks more than likely to be impacted).
Our greatest guess is that opening weekend of Epic Universe will probably be slower than a standard Memorial Day weekend at Walt Disney World, as Common sucks up all of the oxygen within the room. Many locals have bought tickets and booked lodge stays for Epic Universe that weekend, and vacationers are unsurprisingly doing likewise. This dynamic will exist all through the summer season, however it’ll be most pronounced by way of Monday, Could 26, 2025.
Opposite to standard knowledge, we don’t anticipate a lot of a noticeable influence on Walt Disney World attendance or wait occasions all through Summer time 2025 on account of Epic Universe, save for at EPCOT and Animal Kingdom. We do count on decrease crowds than final yr–and it’s not like Summer time 2024 was busy within the first place–however that principally has to do with financial uncertainty and plummeting worldwide journey.
The worst influence of that can coincide with the opening of Epic Universe, however correlation doesn’t equal causation. (It gained’t cease many followers eager to see Disney “fail” from drawing the conclusion.) It additionally doesn’t assist that Walt Disney World doesn’t have any blockbuster new additions opening in Summer time 2025. The one large factor is Starlight Evening Parade, and there’s no opening date for that but, that means it’s trying more and more like a July debut. That’ll enhance nighttime crowds in Magic Kingdom, however is unlikely to maneuver the needle on posted wait occasions at sights or non-local attendance.
We will see, although. Maybe Bay Lake Beatrice is mistaken and crowds will decide up in mid-Could and keep elevated all summer season lengthy. Or perhaps it’s not simply six slower weeks, however extra like 6 slower months. Crowd Capybaras are about as dependable as crowd calendars today, so it may go both approach. It’ll be an attention-grabbing saga to look at unfold, and our greatest guess based mostly on the elevated sense of urgency with reductions is that that is going to be a protracted interval of low to reasonable attendance.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about accommodations on our Walt Disney World Motels Evaluations web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Evaluations. To save cash on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a singular have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, one of the best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every part that you must know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout Shoulder Season between Spring Break and Summer time 2025? Have you ever visited prior to now through the month of Could? Have been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? When you visited throughout Easter week, what was your notion of crowds? Pleasantly stunned or did you discover it to be extremely busy? Ideas on the influence of Epic Universe? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
