Spring break is generally within the rearview mirror and summer time continues to be one other month-plus away, which means Walt Disney World is now now getting into “Shoulder Season.” This crowd report shares wait occasions knowledge, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and contours. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges in Might and June 2024, and past.
We’ll begin by looking again on the final month-plus of spring break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll have a look at what our Spring Break 2024 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World bought proper and mistaken with its predictions (apart from Orange County’s week off, which ended up being shockingly uncrowded), and simply how unhealthy Easter ended up being.
The excellent news is that the broad contours of the predictions–apart from that one badly bungled week–ended up being correct. Spring break season did unofficially start on March 8 and it began to fizzle out by the weekend after Easter because the Northerners began heading dwelling. Save for some spring break stragglers, ‘shoulder season’ arrived in full by Tax Day.
As at all times, what’s coated in these “crowd” studies is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Quite a bit will be gleaned from posted wait occasions, nevertheless it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds. Nevertheless, wait occasions are usually not the identical as “appears like” crowds or congestion.
There are a number of different variables that may influence “appears like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to experience breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week to percentages of company shopping for Genie+ or utilizing DAS. Past that laundry record, wait occasions are sometimes inflated, inaccurate, or in any other case manipulated by Walt Disney World. Phew.
Briefly, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million individuals over the course of the final decade-plus. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
It’s truly been a surprisingly busy begin to 2024 at Walt Disney World, with the common wait time in January being 40 minutes and the common in February being 41 minutes, which is barely down barely as in comparison with December, which averaged 42 minutes (due principally to the madness of the final two weeks). Previous to that, no month had a 40 minute common since final April.
On account of the primary two months being busier than anticipated, we began discussing Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. We’ve theorized there’s a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand that might lead to a year-over-year improve in crowds after each month final 12 months after January was down as in comparison with 2022.
In the long run, final month ended up being on par with January and April 2024 is well-below pattern with a 36 minute common versus 41 minutes final April. That’s the month-to-date quantity, which is falling. April 2024 will nearly definitely find yourself with a median of 35 minutes or decrease. After all, this isn’t an apples to apples comparability–Easter was early (in March) this 12 months.
Talking of which, above is a have a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 7 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be taking a look at. The yellow bar on the very finish will be disregarded–that “week” is simply at the moment (April 22, 2024), and Monday is at all times the busiest day of the week–so it’s meaningless for the week as an entire.
The earlier two weeks are inexperienced bars, with 1/10 crowd ranges and averages of 30-31 minutes. These measure the post-spring break drop-off. The 2 weeks earlier than which might be dates bookending Easter, which is nearly at all times the busiest stretch of spring break. As predicted, that was true once more in 2024. The inexperienced bar previous to that was the surprisingly uncrowded week of Central Florida’s spring break.
Orange earlier than that was the kickoff of spring break, which was busy for causes beforehand mentioned–primarily the ‘final hurrah’ of the Florida resident ticket deal, conventions, youth sports activities, blockouts, and early spring breaks in Canada and elsewhere. That first week was busier than anticipated, however the huge shock was the sharp distinction and dropoff the next week.
Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide day by day numbers for Walt Disney World.
The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No big shock there given blockouts and a scarcity of ticket offers. That is exactly what we’ve come to anticipate in such circumstances.
Extra stunning is that the next weekdays picked up proper the place the prior week left off, with Thursday, April 4 being the busiest day of spring break season. (Magic Kingdom was busier than any date throughout Christmas and New 12 months’s on April 4!) It’s not an enormous shock that this week was (nearly) on par with Easter; by advantage of the vacation falling earlier, extra faculties had the week after off.
What’s stunning is that following Thursday being so busy, and wait occasions sharply plummeting over the weekend. In a single day, crowd ranges went from 9/10 on Friday to 2/10 on Saturday. That steep drop possible is because of weekend pricing and vacationers heading dwelling from trip earlier–a pattern we’ve seen time and time once more during the last year-plus.
Your complete week thereafter was much less busy, with crowd ranges selecting up for the next weekend. This possible comes right down to locals, blockouts, and climate. Nonetheless, these crowds are fairly insignificant as in comparison with spring break.
For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait occasions evaluate to Common Orlando, the pattern is about the identical for the whole lot of spring break season. That features the slower Central Florida recess, busier early break and Easter, in addition to the spike on April 4. Common has additionally seen a slight rise in wait occasions during the last week or so.
The similarities between the 2 are literally a bit eerie. Usually, one or the opposite not having AP or ticket deal blockouts this time of 12 months may end up in dramatic variations. Not so for spring break season. There are a couple of days which might be markedly totally different, however the total tendencies for the final month-plus are extremely comparable.
Basically, Common has seen a extra pronounced slowdown on off-peak dates than Walt Disney World, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if there’s extra of a divergence for the upcoming shoulder season. Sooner or later, we’re additionally anticipating a point of ‘calm earlier than the storm’ at Common as locals and followers take “breaks” earlier than the opening of Epic Universe subsequent summer time. However that may very well be fairly effectively masked by total vacationer tendencies.
As talked about in What Went Proper on Child Bricker’s First Disney World Journey, we spent the primary week of shoulder season (1/10 crowds; 30 minute common) within the parks and may verify that each wait occasions and congestion or appears like crowds had been down dramatically. It was an evening and day distinction as in comparison with my prior solo journeys to Walt Disney World this 12 months or late final 12 months, for that matter. Simply the bottom crowds I’ve noticed since final August and September, with the shortage of depressing climate being the important thing distinguishing issue.
There have been just a few noteworthy issues that I noticed by way of crowds, and the primary is that EPCOT was wholly missing in congestion–even on weekends. Curiosity in Flower & Backyard Competition already seems to be waning (very brief strains on the cubicles and nothing actually drawing crowds), and there’s nonetheless over a month to go. This might clarify each why the occasion was shortened by over a month, and why it actually is sensible to introduce a summer time pageant.
Over at Magic Kingdom, I used to be shocked to see overflow Lightning Lane return strains. Granted, that is one thing that’s been getting progressively worse since final 12 months’s spring break, nevertheless it hasn’t been constantly unhealthy–it often corresponds with crowd ranges. This time, regardless of low crowds, there have been overflows for a lot of points of interest. This additional reinforces why Walt Disney World is cracking down on DAS abuse and misuse.
Aside from that, I’ve nothing insightful so as to add. We didn’t buy Genie+ in any respect, and nonetheless managed to do most of what we wished (admittedly a slower-paced journey with child) regardless of just one Early Entry day. A number of late nights, although, and people proved extremely fruitful!
Trying ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of spring break. In truth, as coated in the newest replace to our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are only a few ‘crimson flag’ dates.
At this level, it’s mainly simply what’s at the moment on the ESPN Large World of Sports activities calendar for April 2024: 2024 ICU Junior World & World Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds. All of these occasions happen this week or coming weekend and will trigger a slight bounce-back by way of crowds.
These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that enhance attendance on the parks and occupancy on the accommodations, often the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nevertheless, the influence on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t vital as an entire–and tends to be overblown primarily based on anecdotal experiences, which will be fairly unhealthy. (Which means that you can assume they’re a big damaging for those who’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a bunch of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you would possibly by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)
Other than these cheer and dance occasions, that are value bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s shoulder season. For these unfamiliar with the time period, “shoulder season” is the interval between two peak seasons. I suppose that’s as a result of the shoulders are beneath the “peak” of the physique, or the pinnacle. By which case, maybe we should always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by college breaks. On account of this, far fewer company in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a serious break. One main break (spring break) simply occurred, and one other (summer time trip) doesn’t begin for one more month-plus.
We see comparable eventualities different occasions of 12 months, however Walt Disney World has carried out a superb job of filling the calendar with attendance-boosting occasions or in any other case attracting various audiences throughout these home windows. The most important exception to that is mid-August via late September and, to a lesser extent, the stretch between the tip of spring break and Memorial Day.
For reference, final 12 months’s shoulder season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. As we reported on the time, that was the Slowest Six Week Stretch for Walt Disney World Crowds Since 2021. That was a very huge deal then, because it signaled the tip of pent-up demand and was a dramatic drop as in comparison with 2022 via mid-April 2023.
With the advantage of hindsight, these dates are much less exceptional. Nonetheless fairly sluggish, however extra of a sign of what was to come back as most dates till the center of the Halloween and Christmas season had been comparatively uncrowded. These weeks would find yourself being surpassed by mid-August to early October 2023, which is/was the slowest 10 week stretch since 2021.
It’s not possible to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2024 shoulder season shall be slower than final 12 months. I’m inclined to foretell that it’ll not. Final 12 months, Walt Disney World bought caught flat-footed by the tip of pent-up demand and scrambled to launch offers, a lot of which didn’t launch till later in summer time. This 12 months, these had been launched in early April. That alone is an enormous distinction, and may very well be sufficient to buoy attendance.
Between higher offers and final 12 months providing such a low baseline, it looks as if the sensible cash is predicting on increased crowd ranges for the 2024 shoulder season. With that stated, “increased” is a relative time period. The stretch between now and Memorial Day ought to nonetheless be fairly sluggish, with crowd ranges beneath 5/10 for the overwhelming majority of days.
In a nutshell, 1/10 to three/10 days are more likely than 5/10 to 7/10 days. Decrease crowds will be anticipated via mid-June, as there’s a slight spike for Memorial Day after which often one other drop thereafter. Even Memorial Day isn’t unhealthy by vacation weekend requirements–it’s not on par with holidays like Presidents’ Day, Columbus Day, or Veterans Day. These holidays are arguably “decrease profile” however find yourself being greater attendance boosters.
As an alternative, summer time trip crowds sometimes construct and decline progressively, with the height often occurring in July. Because of this even early June 2024 ought to not see the worst of summer time trip crowd ranges. In a standard 12 months, June can be increased than Might, however decrease than July. Not like final 12 months, we do not anticipate a lull for Independence Day. Walt Disney World has “fastened” its ticket deal blockouts, which ought to treatment that.
With that stated, Walt Disney World hasn’t skilled a “regular” summer time in a number of years. Each single summer time since 2019 has had some monkey wrench thrown into the combination, and that features final 12 months with the aforementioned pullback in pent-up demand catching Walt Disney World flat-footed. I’d prefer to assume that there gained’t be any surprises this 12 months…however who is aware of.
Regardless, I’m rather more assured within the crowd forecast via Might 2024 than I’m in selecting the very best & worst weeks in Summer time 2024. My hunch is that this summer time goes to be barely busier than final 12 months as a result of offers, however nonetheless not horrible (average territory, principally). Summer time is not peak season at Walt Disney World–and hasn’t been for some time. With no opening date for Tiana’s Bayou Journey and nothing main introduced but, I don’t see this being the 12 months that adjustments. We will see–it’ll be attention-grabbing to look at!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout shoulder season between spring break and Summer time 2024? Have you ever visited previously in the course of the month of Might? Have been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? What did you consider the crowds? Any parks, occasions of day, or days of the week noticeably higher or worse than the others? When you’ve visited in previous weeks following spring break, did you discover an enormous distinction in crowd ranges? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
