November is over, December has arrived, and Walt Disney World is kind of midway by way of the vacation season. Two large weeks have handed, and two extra are on the horizon. This Christmas crowds report covers the lows & highs of wait instances information for November 2023 at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom, a glance again at Thanksgiving and predictions for what to anticipate subsequent.
As might be apparent from the title…or our final crowd report…crowd ranges are going to alter over the course of the vacation season. Quite a bit. And these aren’t gradual modifications, both, with Walt Disney World progressively shifting from one ‘season’ of crowds to a different. They’re abrupt, they’re in a single day.
Throughout Thanksgiving week, Walt Disney World actually went from peak attendance and astronomical wait instances someday to crowd ranges of two/10 the very subsequent day. That’s a reasonably sharp distinction and we’re not anticipating something fairly on that stage for the remainder of the vacation season (truthfully, we didn’t even count on that diploma of a day-to-day distinction), however it however underscores the curler coaster nature of crowd ranges. Suffice to say, you shouldn’t have a look at social media photographs or posted wait instances someday, and assume the following day shall be about the identical. There are large variations this time of the 12 months.
There’s much more of this to return. There’s a purpose they named it the vacation season–as a result of it’s a season of holidays. Between the beginning of November and early January, there aren’t any fewer than a half-dozen holidays and breaks which have large impacts on crowd ranges. A few of these are apparent–the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Eve. Others, like Jersey Week, are decidedly much less so. I’m positive Hallmark celebrates a number of extra that even I’m unaware of.
The excellent information is that in between these holidays, there are lulls in crowds. The breaks act as crowd magnets, of kinds, for Walt Disney World. Individuals are much less prone to take off of labor or pull their children out of faculty when a built-in break is simply across the nook. This makes the downtime much more pronounced, excluding locals and diehard Disney followers who know in regards to the higher instances and are in a position to go to throughout them. (That second half is vital. Lots of people have the information–far fewer can act upon it!)
Level being, the following month-plus goes to be a curler coaster of crowds at Walt Disney World.
Let’s flip to the wait instances information–beginning with the same old asterisks. As at all times, this information just isn’t conclusive of attendance or in-park congestion. Moreover, body of reference is a significant concern.
Walt Disney World attendance has elevated by a number of million individuals over the course of the final decade-plus by way of 2019. Then attendance plummeted for a year-plus, spiked because of pent-up demand for two years, and is now coming again to actuality. So your particular person notion of crowds could fluctuate significantly based mostly on once you final visited.
There are additionally a number of different variables that may affect “looks like” crowds, together with however not restricted to festivals at EPCOT, climate, visitor demographics, journey breakdowns, operational effectivity, wait instances manipulation, and park working hours. That is only a partial listing, and all of these are vital variables proper now.
Briefly, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds. Imperfect as they is likely to be, wait instances are nonetheless the greatest measure of crowds–and the one goal one. The choice is counting on anecdotal observations, that are way more flawed and incomplete.
It’s inconceivable for anybody to be in all places directly, and arduous to know whether or not you’re in a pocket of crowds, what effectivity points exist, and whether or not company are disproportionately doing points of interest or loitering about. Yada yada yada. See our Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars for extra disclaimers in regards to the limitations, strengths, weaknesses, and many others. of the sort of publish.
With that out of the way in which, let’s dig into the info and have a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
Even with the busy weeks of Veterans Day and Thanksgiving, November 2023 ended up having an identical crowd ranges to October, and was much less busy than June or July. It was additionally considerably slower than final November. That’s per each single month this 12 months after January.
Above is the weekly wait instances information for Walt Disney World.
Right here’s the place we see why November was “solely” as busy as October, and the reply is mainly the lulls between vacation weeks. There are 4 yellow bars on the far proper amidst a sea of inexperienced. These are fall break (x2), Jersey Week/Veterans Day, and Thanksgiving. Whereas busier than adjoining dates, these weeks additionally weren’t almost as dangerous as final 12 months when pent-up demand was operating crimson scorching.
Our listing of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2023 to 2025 named final week one of many worst weeks and this week probably the greatest. We’ve been speaking up the week after Thanksgiving for years, however nonetheless get complaints from diehard Walt Disney World followers that we’re giving freely the “secret.”
As you’ll be able to see, our suggestions don’t have any bearing by any means on crowd ranges. Possibly I ought to really feel dangerous that my recommendation is being ignored, however the easy truth is that the overwhelming majority of individuals journey after they can. On-line recommendation (not right here or wherever) doesn’t form or shift attendance to any significant diploma. So should you’re a contrarian who thinks they need to zag as a result of “everybody else is studying that they need to zig whereas others zag,” you’re overthinking it.
Subsequent is a high-level have a look at the every day numbers throughout all 4 parks at Walt Disney World.
That is the place issues get attention-grabbing. Over Thanksgiving week, wait instances peaked on Tuesday, November 21 at 52 minutes for a crowd stage of 9/10. On Monday, Nov. 20, wait instances hit 51 minutes, additionally a 9/10 crowd stage. On each of these days, Genie+ bought out at Magic Kingdom. Crowd ranges remained within the 8/10 vary till Friday, November 24.
I wouldn’t get hung up on these numerical scores. Presently, something at or above 8/10 is peak season crowds. The dimensions has been a bit thrown off by some completely astronomical numbers throughout that red-hot pent-up demand stretch. Relaxation assured, should you go to on an 8/10 or increased day, you’re going to assume the parks are bonkers busy.
Regardless, crowds dropped off a cliff on Saturday, hitting 2/10 and staying at or beneath that stage daily since. This isn’t tremendous stunning, as weekend pricing is prohibitive and blockouts are aggressive. Which means many locals can’t go to on Saturday or Sunday and plenty of vacationers are heading dwelling. We’ve been discussing that pattern all 12 months lengthy. Nonetheless, we have now puzzled whether or not it will begin to shift over the favored vacation season. Guess not!
For our half, we predicted that Monday could be the busiest day of the week, however suggested “to not rely out Tuesday or Wednesday” as sleeper picks for the busiest day of the week relying upon how arduous ticket occasions disrupted the attendance and wait instances dynamic. So we technically bought the Monday name incorrect (by 1 minute), however the basic concept that Monday by way of Wednesday could be the worst of the crowds was correct.
Actually, although, I anticipated extra of a drop-off for Thursday and Friday and much less of a crowd crash for Saturday. Individuals at all times begin heading dwelling by Sunday–that’s nothing new–however to have the Saturday of a vacation weekend be so gradual is nuts. Walt Disney World is admittedly behind the curve in adjusting AP blockouts and room charges. (Off-site lodge and flight costs are additionally large contributing components, however there’s nothing Disney can do about these.)
Magic Kingdom had certainly one of its busiest days of your entire 12 months on the Monday of Thanksgiving week, hitting a ten/10 crowd stage.
This was completely unsurprising, as Walt Disney World made the extremely guest-unfriendly choice of scheduling Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Celebration on that Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Which means 6 p.m. closings these days, which implies company keep away from them and hunt down longer hours. The way in which the sooner park closing time impacts crowd ranges is one thing we’ve coated at size, repeatedly.
Extra social gathering days from October by way of December than in August and September is an annual incidence, however that is the primary time they’ve ever pulled that 3/4 days stunt throughout Thanksgiving. (Additionally value noting that there was a Jollywood Nights on that Monday.)
The even crazier factor is that, if Walt Disney World understood attendance developments higher, they’d’ve shifted the Wednesday social gathering to Friday (like a standard week). Their scheduling operated from a playbook that’s a number of years old-fashioned. (This isn’t in the least unusual. Walt Disney World is extremely reactive to altering attendance patterns, and normally it takes them a number of years to regulate. It actually undercuts the “argument” some followers make that Disney is nice with information and analytics. They aren’t.)
Rides with the very best common wait instances in Magic Kingdom for your entire month of November:
- Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare: 81 minutes
- Peter Pan’s Flight: 73 minutes
- Jingle Cruise: 67 minutes
- House Mountain: 53 minutes
- Haunted Mansion: 47 minutes
Subsequent up is Animal Kingdom.
Animal Kingdom wait instances just about mirror Walt Disney World as an entire, however at a decrease stage. It helps that Animal Kingdom has gotten some wholesome extensions to park hours, and people earlier openings plus late closings and the sooner sundown time (which means night in Pandora and Tree of Life Winter Awakenings!) actually helps.
High common wait time rides in Animal Kingdom for November:
- Avatar Flight of Passage: 84 minutes
- Na’vi River Journey: 66 minutes
- Adventurers Outpost Meet & Greet: 49 minutes
- Kilimanjaro Safaris: 42 minutes
- Expedition Everest: 32 minutes
As at all times, Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the busiest park at Walt Disney World as measured by common wait instances. (Be aware the completely different scales for the varied parks.)
Specifically, the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week was insanely busy–74 minute common wait time, 10/10 crowd stage, and the worst day at DHS since January 3. That is the worst day, by far, that any park has had within the post-pent-up demand “period,” if you wish to name it an period. (Interval might be the suitable time period.)
The easy and unsurprising purpose for that is that DHS is the clear #2 precedence park for individuals visiting Walt Disney World. Which means that almost all company did Magic Kingdom on Monday and Disney’s Hollywood Studios on Tuesday. That was the “logical” method by way of park hours and in addition per all the pieces we’ve seen because the begin of Celebration Season. (See Greatest & Worst Days of the Week for Every Park at Walt Disney World.) It was simply amplified because of the vacation week.
Fortunately, readers of this weblog have had this recommendation pounded into their heads repeatedly, so nobody right here was in Magic Kingdom on Monday or Disney’s Hollywood on Tuesday…proper? RIGHT?! (Kidding, after all. Following the recommendation right here isn’t at all times possible for numerous causes, which is a giant purpose why it really works!)
For November, DHS had 7 rides at or above hour-long waits. Nevertheless, neither Slinky Canine Sprint (91 minute common) nor Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance (79 minute common) had been in triple-digit territory. Clearly, that was not the case on that individual Tuesday–a day when 4 rides had been over 2 hours on common and three extra had been above 90 minutes–or Thanksgiving week as an entire!
Lastly, we have now EPCOT.
One factor you’ll discover with EPCOT is that it didn’t have the identical excessive highs for Thanksgiving week as the opposite 3 parks. We weren’t in EPCOT for Thanksgiving week, however I can say with a excessive diploma of confidence, that is meaningless. EPCOT is the native’s park and locals don’t do as many rides–and attraction wait instances are what these crowd ranges measure.
With decorations going up and Competition of the Holidays beginning, EPCOT was assuredly congested–even when that was not mirrored within the wait time for Check Observe or Frozen Ever After or no matter. It will’ve been within the strains for meals cubicles, Starbucks, DVC lounge, and just about all the pieces else.
We’ve executed EPCOT many instances throughout Thanksgiving week, and even when the wait instances didn’t sign that it was busy, I’ve by no means walked away pondering, “that was pleasantly uncrowded!” EPCOT is its personal beast, and the notion of crowds actually relies upon upon a visitor’s priorities.
As soon as once more, we wish to warn you that that is solely going to worsen beginning on December 5, 2023 with the filling in of the Big EPCOT Filth Pit and debut of Luminous: Symphony of Us. I might count on EPCOT to have a few of its worst ‘looks like’ crowds in a very long time on the weekends in December. You may just about ignore the posted wait instances as a measure of crowd ranges, until you’re solely there for rides…during which case, they’re a excellent measure of crowds! 😉
I’ve stated it earlier than, however I’m shocked that Magic Kingdom, Disney’s Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom have been getting wholesome park hours extensions…however not EPCOT. I do know this isn’t Theme Park Tycoon, but when I had been in cost, I’d take these further hours from Animal Kingdom and provides them to EPCOT. It may open an hour earlier and keep open 2 hours later–and that will most likely pay for itself in bonus meals & beverage gross sales!
Finally, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see what occurs subsequent. In a standard 12 months, subsequent week could be busier than this week, however nonetheless slower than Jersey Week or Thanksgiving. Final 12 months, crowd ranges rose to the ‘reasonable’ stage for that individual week (5/10 to six/10 vary); we had been within the parks then, they usually had been nonetheless fairly snug. The distinction then was that the baseline was increased and that was a time when pent-up demand was operating scorching.
If we alter downwards based mostly on this 12 months’s crowd developments, subsequent week will probably be within the 3/10 to 4/10 vary. It’s probably the next week shall be extra of the identical, with crowds presumably creeping up a bit extra. Nevertheless, crowd ranges may very well be even decrease…and for longer. The timing of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Eve makes this 12 months a little bit of a wildcard. Final 12 months, crowds began rising from seasonal lows on December 17, hit peak season numbers on December 19, and stayed there till January 6.
Walt Disney World is making ready for elevated crowd ranges by way of January 8, 2024. That’s why so many modifications take impact on the next day, and never when the calendar first turns over into 2024. I feel they’ve most likely overshot that by a number of days, and realistically, crowd ranges will come down on January 6, 2024. That’s to not say they’re getting this “incorrect.” They selected these modifications a number of months in the past and sure needed to play issues conservatively. Regardless, they’re completely appropriate that the winter low season will start by January 9, 2024 on the newest.
As for when the following peak of this vacation season begins, that’s trickier. If we’re following final 12 months’s developments, it’d be December 18, which is the Monday one week earlier than Christmas. It’s most likely a secure guess to foretell that day shall be busy–it’s a Monday, in any case–however I’d additionally count on crowd ranges to stage off and even drop on subsequent days that week. As a substitute, my cash is on December 22 being the following peak in crowds at Walt Disney World, and the beginning of a 2-week stretch of the worst dates since this January–which might imply it’s busier than Easter.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study resorts on our Walt Disney World Inns Evaluations web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Evaluations. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys publish takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for all the pieces you must know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on the November 2023 crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for the primary half of December and the weeks of Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve? Suppose it’ll be higher or worse than final 12 months, or about equally dangerous? Higher or worse than Easter? Ideas on our forecast, evaluation, or anything? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
