Over the previous couple of years, we’ve heard extra complaints from followers about Genie+ and Lightning Lanes than the rest at Walt Disney World–even the tip of Magical Specific. Numerous adjustments have already been made to handle the issues and shortcomings of the system, with extra on the horizon. This gives our checklist of predictions for 2024 in regards to the good & unhealthy methods paid FastPass will proceed to evolve.
We most likely can all agree that paid FastPass has its share of issues. Before everything, because the moniker suggests, it prices cash. Paying for what was once free stinks. Not solely that, however there have been points with consumer interface and so many coverage quirks and adjustments that it’s robust to remain on high of all the things. Even setting all of that apart, Genie+ would nonetheless be a step backwards as in comparison with FastPass+ for a lot of WDW trip planners even when it have been nonetheless free. (However once more, it isn’t.)
The excellent news is that Genie+ has already improved, and nearly all the things on our checklist of predictions under is optimistic. Extra steps in the proper course, each massive and small. The unhealthy information is that many followers received’t view these adjustments as such–as a consequence of preconceived notions, aversion to alter, or the comprehensible hostility in the direction of paying for what was as soon as free. (Sadly, there’s no placing the genie again within the bottle on that, no less than not anytime quickly.) Anyway, on with the checklist of predicted adjustments to Genie+ and Lightning Lanes later in 2024…
Advance Reserving Arrives Late – We beforehand mentioned the timing of advance reserving in When Will Pre-Arrival Lightning Lanes Begin at Walt Disney World? That supplied a few totally different predictions for debut dates, one in March and one other no ahead of mid-April. Mainly, both with ample time earlier than Spring Break season to ensure issues are going easily or throughout the shoulder season when the parks are slower (which means earlier than summer time trip).
Nevertheless, my different prediction was that the announcement providing specifics and a launch date would happens roughly 30 days upfront–most likely not muchless. They should give ample time for planners with journeys on the horizon to make their experience reservations; in any case, this technique entails advance reserving.
It’s now mid-February and the beginning of Spring Break is one month away. Even when the announcement got here tomorrow, it might be implausible for rollout to happen throughout a slower season. On condition that, it appears extremely seemingly that pre-arrival Lightning Lane reservations aren’t taking place till someday earlier than the beginning of the summer time vacationer season in June 2024.
Frankly, we view this as a good factor. One of many greatest issues with Genie+ was that it was rushed to market and never correctly developed or examined previous to launch, necessitating a gradual trickle of tweaks and options being applied for 2 years after launch. Walt Disney World taking a slower and extra methodical method to this–even when it means the launch is delayed–is totally the proper name. Get it proper so followers hate it much less. (Many are nonetheless going to hate something that isn’t free, but it surely’ll have the next ‘approval score’ if it’s no less than consumer pleasant!)
7 a.m. Wakeup Name Ends – One of many greatest complaints about Walt Disney World that we’ve heard from readers issues the stress of getting to get up early to e-book experience reservations whereas on trip. With the arrival of advance reserving of Lightning Lanes, this is able to seemingly finish. Nicely, besides for many who nonetheless purchase same-day, which can undoubtedly proceed…however these friends most likely aren’t getting up at 7 a.m. anyway.
So that is seemingly a secure prediction, no less than because it pertains to Lightning Lanes. Nevertheless, we nonetheless don’t have a full image of how the advance reserving system will work, which implies it may additionally entail a same-day element for everybody that by some means begins at 7 a.m. My guess is that it received’t, given the complaints. However by no means wager towards Disney!
There’s additionally the difficulty of digital queues, that are separate from Lightning Lanes however interconnected. In spite of everything, you may not need to purchase an Particular person Lightning Lane till discovering out whether or not you’ve received the VQ lottery. Otherwise you may really feel the necessity to modify Lightning Lane alternatives based mostly upon your success or failure with boarding teams. So even with pre-arrival Lightning Lanes, there’ll nonetheless be the “want” to get up early on Magic Kingdom and EPCOT days.
This isn’t essentially a prediction that the digital queue system will change alongside Lightning Lane pre-booking, as VQs developed loads between late 2019 and mid-2020, with the present system being the most effective compromise to reduce complaints (in need of retiring VQs utterly). However I wouldn’t be shocked to see one other adjustment made below the guise of ‘visitor expertise enhancements.’
Personally, I feel the optimum method that balances competing pursuits and complaints can be having the rides that’ll in any other case use VQs open every day with standby traces after which open the digital queue at 10 or 11 a.m., and probably once more at 2 p.m. That eliminates the early wake-up name and offers friends alternative, whereas additionally retaining VQs as a type of queue management.
Tiana’s Bayou Journey is ILL – This may look like a foregone conclusion, as each experience that has opened since Genie+ debuted has no less than began out as promoting an Particular person Lightning Lane. And it wouldn’t shock me if there’s an inner mandate that each new attraction must be instantly monetizable through Particular person Lightning Lanes so as to get funded.
Nevertheless, there are additionally counterpoints to this. The primary is that Tiana’s Bayou Journey was greenlit pre-Genie+ and likewise not primarily as a marketable draw. The second is that Splash Mountain didn’t provide an Particular person Lightning Lane. Third, there have been most likely ‘operational realities’ for that, which may even apply to Tiana’s Bayou Journey, resembling the need of winter refurbishments in some unspecified time in the future and the truth that water rides merely usually are not as well-liked at night time or when the climate is colder. Lastly, if Tiana’s Bayou Journey opens with an Particular person Lightning Lane and nothing else adjustments, Magic Kingdom would be the solely park with greater than a single ILL attraction. It’ll haven’t 2, however 3.
No matter all that, I nonetheless assume that Tiana’s Bayou Journey is elevated to Particular person Lightning Lane. It will be a marketable draw and much more well-liked than Splash Mountain for no less than a few years–until one thing goes terribly unsuitable with the execution of the reimagining, and there’s no motive to anticipate that after seeing the wowing Tiana Audio Animatronics. It additionally most likely wouldn’t be nice optics to have the brand new experience be relegated to Genie+ standing.
The underside line is that the percentages are excessive that Tiana’s Bayou Journey will get Particular person Lightning Lane standing, but it surely’s removed from a certain factor–not like Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run. These have been very apparent ILL candidates, whereas TBA is extra TBD with compelling arguments for it going both means.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare is Not – Nowhere is it written in stone that Magic Kingdom can’t have 3 Particular person Lightning Lane points of interest. At solely a yr previous and nonetheless insanely well-liked, TRON Lightcycle Run will clearly maintain its ILL standing. I wouldn’t be in the slightest degree shocked if it isn’t relegated till the Past Large Thunder stuff opens, no matter and at any time when that’s.
Then there’s Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare. This curler coaster is now a few decade previous, however stays very talked-about and its Particular person Lightning Lanes promote out with regularity. I don’t see circumstances altering between now and Past Large Thunder to materially affect its recognition. It’s additionally extra of a identified amount; much less refurbishment-intensive and climate dependent. Which means Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare may proceed to promote out ILLs indefinitely on a extra constant foundation than Tiana’s Bayou Journey over the course of the subsequent decade, not simply the subsequent few years.
Given all of that, will Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare stay an ILL? There’s a powerful case for it, however I don’t assume so. Once more, there’s a little bit of optics at play right here. If one park has 3 ILLs however the remainder have only one, which of these parks is residence to a lot of the “greatest” rides? Not solely that, but when there are 3 ILLs, does that disincentivize shopping for the Genie+ bundle?
Though ILLs would proceed to promote, the identical may very well be stated for the newer Slinky Canine Sprint at DHS, and but, that’s a Genie+ attraction. It’s additionally simply not a superb have a look at a time when Walt Disney World is consistently accused of being grasping. All issues thought-about, the secure and guest-friendly transfer is downgrading Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare.
Onsite Benefit Returns – Throughout the previous couple of earnings calls, the home Parks & Resorts have had decrease outcomes as a consequence of decreased income at Walt Disney World, with the next rationalization: “decrease volumes as a consequence of decreases in attendance and occupied room nights, each of which mirrored the comparability to the fiftieth anniversary celebration within the prior-year quarter.”
In plain English, because of this lodge bookings are down. That is additionally relative to 2021-2022 when the fiftieth was in full swing in pent-up demand was operating scorching and Walt Disney World was breaking information. That explains how bookings could be down, however there are nonetheless dates when resorts are offered out.
This additionally implies that Walt Disney World didn’t have to supply incentives to get friends to remain on-site on the time when Genie+ launched, which is why they largely didn’t. Additionally they didn’t do a lot in the best way of discounting on the time, whereas particular gives are again in full drive–Walt Disney World has busted out the 2019 playbook, bringing again all the things from bouncebacks to Free Eating. And that also isn’t sufficient!
An apparent “lever” to drag that will assist transfer the needle on occupancy can be bringing again the on-site benefit for advance reserving of Lightning Lanes. Beneath the prior FastPass+ system, it was a 60 day window for on-site and 30 day for off-site. Our expectation is that Lightning Lane pre-arrival reservations will probably be a a lot shorter timeframe as a complete than the previous FastPass+ system.
Our wager can be that there will probably be an on-site perk for Lightning Lane reservations, maybe 14 days vs. 7 for off-site friends, or possibly 30 days vs. 14 for off-site friends. Whatever the precise quantity, we’d anticipate reserving timelines of a month or much less, and every week or two headstart–at most–for on-site friends.
It doesn’t matter what it finally ends up being, this will probably be enormous for on-site friends. It may very well be solely a single day head-start and it’d nonetheless provide a giant aggressive benefit! If you would like Slinky Canine Sprint, Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, Frozen Ever After, and different well-liked Lightning Lanes…you’ll just about must be staying on-site! Given the necessity for greater occupancy stats and the truth that that is the way it labored below FastPass+ prior to now, I’d be shocked if there’s no on-site benefit for Lightning Lanes as soon as the brand new system launches.
It Breaks the $50 Barrier – I’m going to hedge my bets and make clear that this implies $50 after tax. It looks as if that is the trajectory, and logical pricing throughout the vacation season. In spite of everything, the price of Genie+ set a brand new document of $29 at Christmas 2022, then hit $35 the next Easter, then $39 at Christmas 2023. And the paid FastPass service offered out repeatedly at every of these document worth factors.
It thus looks as if an inevitability that Genie+ reaches $45 this Easter and $49 (~$52 after tax) round Christmas 2024. That’s a reasonably secure wager given the pattern line for the reason that system launched for $15 plus tax with no seasonal pricing and no per-park pricing.
Nevertheless, my prediction relies much less on precedent and extra on upcoming transfer to the pre-arrival reserving system for Lightning Lanes. I really wouldn’t be in the slightest degree shocked if Spring Break maxes out at $39 and Walt Disney World saves the value will increase for the brand new system. Advance reserving coming with premium pricing for the luxurious and peace of thoughts of reserving at residence appears each attainable and possible.
Alternatively, it might be savvy to jack-up the value of Genie+ earlier than rolling out the brand new system to make it look higher by comparability. If Genie+ spikes to $75 over Spring Break after which the brand new system maxes out at “solely” $50, it’ll appear to be Walt Disney World is doing us a stable and dropping costs! (I don’t assume this may really occur, but it surely’d be a slick transfer.)
Genie Vanishes – I might be shocked if Genie (the free itinerary builder) ever achieved Walt Disney World’s aim of redistributing crowds and minimizing unutilized capability. I’m not questioning whether or not it made a significant affect on congestion or capability–it undoubtedly didn’t. I’m questioning whether or not it ever did something in any respect. Most likely, I assume, as a result of some dumb blogger examined it out a number of instances and he did issues he in any other case wouldn’t have. In order that’s an no less than one fool driving the carrousel when Peter Pan’s Flight had a brief wait.
I’m skeptical any regular friends exterior of these testing it ever materially modified their park touring habits due to Genie. It was simply so aggressively unhealthy to the purpose that it defied credulity. If Walt Disney World wished to make use of Genie as a sneaky car for carrying out their aim of redistributing crowds with out actual profit to friends, it wanted to be a little bit extra plausible. As an alternative, Genie was the equal of a GPS instructing you to drive your automotive right into a lake. Until your title is Michael Scott, you simply aren’t going to pay attention as a result of the steerage is so comically unhealthy.
I think Walt Disney World lastly “will get” this. Genie continues to be terrible, which implies in addition they don’t need to throw good cash after unhealthy in making the system not-worthless. Given all of that and now that sufficient time has handed, I additionally suspect that they’ll use the launch of advance Lightning Lanes to make a clear break and get rid of Genie.
However what in regards to the Genie+ title? Can there be a plussed model of one thing with out the common? It’s a considerably related story there, however much less of a certain factor. Regardless, Genie+ is a poisonous title on par with Monsanto, Philip Morris, Comcast, or Robert Chapek. Whereas it’s definitely attainable that the advance reserving of Lightning Lanes will merely slot into the present Genie+ system that will, frankly, be an terrible concept. There’s a lot badwill related to Genie, that it simply is sensible to rebrand completely (once more).
So why not flip the web page backwards, and go along with what’s previous is new once more (however now paid). Actually, I’d name it FastPass Max or one thing like that and use Powerline because the character above the emblem. I think Disney was (and possibly nonetheless is) reluctant to carry again the FastPass title due to the free versus paid stigma, however Genie+ was generally referred to as “paid FastPass” by everybody however Disney anyway. Why throw away the nice FastPass branding for no actual motive?!
It Will get A Lot Higher – There are a number of causes for this prediction. One is kind of merely what Walt Disney World has realized from Genie+ and FastPass+, and can have the ability to cherry decide the weather of every that individuals preferred most, whereas discarding the facets that have been most hated.
That makes it sound easy, which isn’t even remotely the case. Totally different demographics want totally different techniques, and queueing is finally a zero-sum recreation that creates winners and losers in equal elements. However it’s attainable for an final result that feels extra honest and doesn’t benefit or drawback anybody an excessive amount of. From what we’ve heard, that is the needle they’re making an attempt to string with the brand new system, and we’re hoping for fulfillment.
Past that, I’m anticipating decrease utilization for a wide range of causes that can have optimistic second order results for friends in each the Lightning Lanes and the standby traces. In fact, this may have its prices (actually and figuratively) since queueing is (once more) a zero-sum recreation, however the finish consequence needs to be one thing that feels extra honest and fewer exploitable.
As we’ve been saying for the previous couple of months, a part of this may seemingly be as a consequence of Walt Disney World overhauling DAS once more. The DAS Abuse Crackdown that began final fall with tour teams was merely a gap salvo and never the endgame. It’s attainable that this received’t come to fruition given issues about litigation, however that needs to be seen as the price of doing enterprise. If DAS adjustments do occur, that most likely must happen earlier than the Lightning Lane adjustments.
All in all, we’re trying ahead to extra huge adjustments to Lightning Lanes. Regardless that Genie+ has grow to be rather more usable since launch and is definitely higher than it was 2 years in the past (effectively, minus the upper worth…however that half isn’t going to alter!), there are nonetheless a lot of shortcomings with the system.
No matter comes subsequent must strike a greater steadiness between pre-panning and spontaneity, leveling the taking part in area to the best extent attainable whereas (clearly) giving those that pay further an choice to skip the road. From what we’ve heard, it appears like these are Walt Disney World’s objectives with the subsequent iteration of paid FastPass. Now let’s simply see if they’ll really stick the touchdown and execute on this!
For now, you probably have questions in regards to the fundamentals of utilizing–or not utilizing–the paid FastPass service, see our Information to Genie+ at Walt Disney World & Lightning Lane FAQ for the entire foundational need-to-know information. This entire system is complicated and convoluted, so that you may need a query or two-dozen. That solutions the entire commonest ones we’ve been receiving from readers.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about accommodations on our Walt Disney World Lodges Critiques web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Critiques. To economize on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys put up takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to begin is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for all the things you could know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider these predictions for Genie+ at Walt Disney World? Do you assume any of those adjustments can be unhealthy, or may have unintended unfavourable consequence? Are you optimistic that advance reserving of Lightning Lanes will enhance the visitor expertise? Assume that Walt Disney World will have the ability to thread the needle and steadiness the preferences of planners with spontaneous or lower-knowledge single day guests? Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
