Walt Disney World has laid the inspiration to construct a fifth theme park. Effectively, the figurative basis–not the literal one. That’s nonetheless a minimum of a decade away–maybe 20 years or extra. This publish covers the 2045 Complete Plan that was permitted by the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District, and why we nonetheless are satisfied a fifth gate continues to be a legendary creature that’s unlikely to occur. Ever.
Followers have renewed hopes for a fifth gate final 12 months primarily based on this 2045 Complete Plan, which arises out of the settlement of a lawsuit over the previous Reedy Creek Enchancment District. In consequence, a joint growth settlement was to be reached between the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD) and Walt Disney World. This meant that the 2032 Complete Plan was deemed null and void, and that the prior 2020 Complete Plan would stay in impact till a brand new plan had been permitted.
Additionally as a part of that settlement, the CFTOD agreed to seek the advice of with Walt Disney World whereas reviewing and amending the present plan and creating a brand new complete plan. In different phrases, the brand new 2045 Complete Plan is the results of a joint collaboration between Disney and CFTOD, not simply randomly arrived-at judgments of the latter.
It’s price noting that this identical settlement commited the corporate to take a position $17 billion in Walt Disney World over the following 10 to twenty years. Underneath the phrases of the deal, Disney is required to take a position a minimum of $8 billion inside the first 10 years of the settlement. So anybody who’s skeptical that Disney’s enlargement plans could be quietly cancelled…that’s unlikely.
In any case, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Complete Plan has lastly been permitted, revealing particular particulars in regards to the district’s plans for land use. In case you’d like, you’ll be able to learn the total ~400 web page doc for your self right here (it begins on web page 201). I don’t know why you’d need to, although.
By way of fundamental background, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Complete Plan is meant to supply the premise for future choices relating to land use, growth, conservation and infrastructure. It serves because the District’s official coverage for using each non-public and public lands, in addition to the Complete Plan for the Cities of Bay Lake and Lake Buena Vista. The Plan gives a framework for enlargement of the distinctive makes use of within the District, whereas managing development, defending the surroundings, making certain well being and security, and enhancing the standard of growth.
The CFTOD’s 2045 Complete Plan continues the excessive customary of planning already undertaken and extends its purview ten years into the longer term. The Plan’s three total features are: 1) to control the situation and depth of land use and growth by offering the inspiration for regulating proposed new tasks; 2) to convey advance course to the non-public sector by stating clearly the District’s expectations for development and conservation; and three) to information public funding in new amenities, akin to roads, water programs, and water high quality amenities.
The district (first Reedy Creek and now CFTOD) has been doing trendy variations of those plans since 1991. It started the method throughout the building of the Disney-MGM Studios, realizing extra cohesive grasp plans for complete land use planning have been wanted. The 2045 Complete Plan builds on the interim 2020 Plan, and displays adjustments to the prior 2010 Complete Plan. Suffice to say, it’s probably the most consequential everlasting plan shortly.
Clearly, there’s quite a lot of floor lined in ~400 pages, and far of it issues what Walt Disney World can construct. This consists of main expansions in workplace area–by over 1 million sq. toes, 1.7 million sq. toes of restaurant/retail area, and 53,076 resort rooms (the adjustments to room key will increase is probably probably the most fascinating side of the replace, in that these limits would possibly really current a significant ceiling on development).
Within the 2045 Complete Plan, the CFTOD has additionally permitted a fifth main theme park at Walt Disney World. This is a rise within the allowed most from a 2010 plan, formalizing what was penciled into the 2020 plan. This fifth gate is permitted starting in 2035, and working by means of the conclusion of the plan in 2045.
The 2045 Complete Plan views a significant theme park as being on the dimensions of Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom, with an estimated measurement of roughly 445 acres. There are at the moment 4 main theme parks at Walt Disney World (those listed above).
The technical definition of a significant theme park per the plan is: “A theme park that’s designed for multiple-day visits. The exhibitions and rides are intensive and usually require greater than in the future to expertise.” (Unsure how Animal Kingdom meets this!) A brand new main theme park would have a each day inhabitants of fifty,000 individuals (friends plus workers and others), which might put it above DHS or DAK.
Along with a single main theme park allotted within the complete plan, the plan permits for 2 extra minor theme parks. A minor theme park could be smaller or extra area of interest expertise, with a projected land space of round 147 acres. There are at the moment 3 minor theme parks at Walt Disney World: Hurricane Lagoon, Blizzard Seaside, and ESPN Extensive World of Sports activities.
The window for the primary minor park opens in 2030, with a second minor park being on the desk beginning in 2040. Each choices lengthen by means of the length of the plan. Minor theme park is outlined as: “A theme park that’s designed for single-day or partial-day visits. Guests are anticipated to spend shorter quantities of time than they’d at a significant theme park.” Curiously, a brand new minor theme park would have a inhabitants of 1,780 individuals, which is about half the inhabitants of the water parks (when open).
Maybe what’s extra fascinating about these new main and minor parks is the redlines from a previous draft of the plan. Earlier variations of the minor and main park have been each smaller. Furthermore, this expands what might be construed as a minor or main park to “enlargement,” that means an enormous enlargement plan might seemingly qualify as a brand new gate beneath the phrases of the plan. Maybe that’s how Walt Disney World will market Villains Land: “it’s mainly a fifth gate inside our 1st gate, should you don’t give it some thought too laborious.”
These new minor and main theme parks are usually not official tasks–this shouldn’t be construed as a “leak” or “sneak peek” of what’s to return. On the contrary, the 2045 Complete Plan particularly states that no plans for future theme parks are beneath evaluation.
Basically, what the 2045 Complete Plan is conducting is laying the groundwork for brand spanking new minor or main theme parks in its land use plan. Though Disney will not be contemplating such plans at this time, if the enterprise surroundings adjustments sooner or later such that new parks are deemed obligatory, they are often constructed with out spending one other half-decade on rewriting the rulebook (e.g. this plan).
A technique or one other, although, the CFTOD does anticipate Walt Disney World’s daytime customer depend to extend dramatically. Based mostly on present attendance and occupancy numbers, the district estimates that the “useful” daytime inhabitants of Walt Disney World is between 205,000 and 307,000, whereas that quantity is predicted to balloon to 335,000 to 475,000 by 2045–and the majority of that development will happen within the remaining 10 years of the plan (the 2035 vary is 243,000 to 366,000). So somebody believes that one thing large is on the horizon!
Once more, we can’t underscore sufficient that Walt Disney World at the moment has no plans to assemble a fifth main theme park or any minor theme parks, for that matter. None. Nada. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Needless to say that is the operation that wasn’t even opening the 2 current water parks in its portfolio for five years! And the plan was to maintain the seasonal rotation in 2025 till overwhelming demand throughout spring break compelled Disney’s hand.
Followers are nonetheless excited, as a result of absolutely this language was included purposefully as a result of Walt Disney World is laying the groundwork to construct a fifth gate within the subsequent decade, proper? We extremely doubt it.
The settlement merely offers Disney the autonomy to construct a fifth park–maintaining its choices open–with out having to revisit the event settlement. Significantly, don’t learn an excessive amount of into this. It’s like how the land on your house could be zoned or conditionally permitted for an ADU, even in case you have no plans of constructing one.
So why do that if there’s no urge for food to construct a fifth theme park? Most likely as a result of Disney has discovered its lesson from its dealings with the federal government in each Florida, with the dismantling of the previous Reedy Creek Enchancment District, and in California with the Metropolis of Anaheim.
Truly, that is considerably just like the “pitch” for DisneylandForward, which showcased a ton of prospects on giant swaths of land past the present theme park boundaries. Disney touted Fantasy Springs from Tokyo DisneySea and different envelope-pushing points of interest they might construct subsequent to Pixar Place Resort and on the Toy Story Car parking zone.
As an alternative, we’re getting expansions and redevelopment which are largely inside the current footprint of the mixed parks. The entire purpose with DisneylandForward was to open the door in order that Disney might do what they wished with out interference from Anaheim. The pitch was large and daring. The truth seems to be good, however doesn’t fairly match that!
There are over a half-dozen compelling the reason why the corporate received’t construct a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World. We’ve lined these in excruciating element in Why a fifth Theme Park Will NOT Be Constructed at Disney World within the Subsequent Decade. I assume we will now lengthen that to the following two a long time, as this plan runs by means of 2045.
The one cause the title doesn’t finish with “In My Lifetime” is as a result of I plan on residing an obscenely very long time–we’re speaking mid triple digits–and it’s not possible to foresee what might occur as soon as we hit Walt Disney World’s one hundredth Anniversary.
Not a lot has modified on that entrance, so somewhat than rehashing all of that, I’ll share some fast bullet factors earlier than including new ideas:
- Effectivity & Ease: Disney’s present focus is essentially rising utilization of the present parks by means of redevelopment, not true enlargement.
- Iger and D’Amaro Statements: The present and future CEO by no means tease a fifth gate, and all the time particularly say they need to increase the present home parks.
- Too Costly: Common spent $7 Billion on Epic Universe with a lot of that pre-inflation. A fifth gate in 2035 on par with that may simply exceed $10 billion (adjusted for actual and Imagineering inflation). Maybe nearer to $15 billion.
- Cannibalization: A long time after opening, Animal Kingdom nonetheless struggles to tug its personal weight. A fifth park is prone to pull attendance away from current gates.
- Common American Trip: The typical American’s trip is between 4 and 6 days lengthy, and that common has been on the decline for the final couple of a long time; Central Florida doesn’t get sufficient worldwide guests to select up the slack.
- Labor Pool: Staffing shortages are largely resolved within the parks, but it surely’s nonetheless not good. Central Florida has a decent labor market, with almost two job openings for each unemployed individual. As new building retains taking place all through the area and America’s inhabitants ages–with out different labor sources–that is unlikely to vary (barring large productiveness beneficial properties by way of automation).
- Infrastructure Prices: Less expensive to increase (really increase) the present parks, which all have room to develop per the Complete 2045 Plan. Theme parks require new toll plazas, ticket cubicles, turnstiles, backstage amenities, roads, transportation hubs, and different infrastructure that already exists in assist of the present theme parks. Infrastructure bills are usually not insignificant, and it’s troublesome to justify their expenditures when the present parks will be built-out with out incurring all of those identical prices. Added infrastructure additionally compounds labor prices (see above).
Turning to new commentary, I’d additionally add that the jury continues to be out on the knowledge of Comcast constructing Epic Universe. Certain, followers love that Common Orlando swung for the fences and guess large with Epic Universe. It’s a terrific park with nice rides and daring concepts. It has its faults, positive, however none of that is actually the purpose. By and enormous, it’s a important success.
Somewhat, it’s a query of whether or not spending $7 billion to construct Epic Universe–plus most likely one other $2 billion to rapidly increase its capability within the subsequent a number of years–was a sensible enterprise determination? Will the park be a business success? I’m positive Common did all kinds of viability research and has inner projections pre-2019 displaying Epic Universe will generate boatloads of money, elevated occupancy and attendance, and so forth. However the factor about all of that’s it’s theoretical and topic to vary.
Truly, the jury continues to be out on whether or not Epic Universe was the correct play or whether or not Common would’ve been higher off constructing out Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida. It’s simple to level to the triple-digit wait instances and declare Epic Universe is a large hit, however as lined in Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance, that is principally a byproduct of capability constraints.
Not solely that, however simply because a 3rd gate (arguably) was the correct transfer for Common doesn’t imply the identical could be true with a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. The previous is attempting to rework itself right into a bona fide trip vacation spot that captures coveted resort stays. The latter is the mature complicated that already accomplishes that!
For the Walt Disney Firm, there’s additionally the chance value of constructing one other theme park in Central Florida. In the event that they’re going to construct one other gate, is that actually the optimum location, or ought to that cash be invested elsewhere?
One of many causes some followers are holding out hope {that a} fifth gate is for actual is as a result of Disney shocked the world with the Disneyland Abu Dhabi announcement. The distinction there’s large, although–Disney is spending $0 to construct that new park within the United Arab Emirates. That park is a cash-positive licensing deal that helps fund investments on the different parks!
So long as we’re speaking a few new theme park within the Center East, we must always take into account different rising development alternatives the place Disney might spend its personal cash to construct new parks. Places that come to thoughts embody India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil and perhaps even Beijing. I’d guess on new Disneylands in any of these locations earlier than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. I’d additionally guess on random locations with some huge cash that give Disney sweetheart offers for reputational causes, a la Abu Dhabi Disneyland.
Frankly, I’d additionally guess on a second gate at Shanghai Disneyland or third gate at Disneyland Paris taking place earlier than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. Heck, for that matter, a third gate at Disneyland Resort is considerably extra probably, and I’d put the percentages of even that taking place at beneath 50/50 in my lifetime!
The purpose is that new parks in new markets make infinitely extra sense than the corporate placing too many eggs within the Central Florida basket. Past that, the calculus additionally favors extra gates in current markets to show these into bona fide vacation spot resorts–just like the reasoning for Common constructing Epic Universe.
The truth is, if Disney goes to be “impressed” by something that Common is doing, it’s extra prone to be the regional children park in Texas or the year-round Halloween Horror Nights factor in Las Vegas. Though Disney was burned by the regional ideas earlier than and I’m skeptical they’ll construct something cost-effectively sufficient for viability, that’s nonetheless extra probably than a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. Who is aware of–perhaps if the Texas or Las Vegas ideas are smash successes (uncertain), Disney will take a tough have a look at replicating these outcomes. Regardless, the look will likely be more durable than the one at constructing a fifth theme park!
I’m not attempting to be a celebration pooper or the bearer of dangerous information with all of this, however frankly, it’s NOT dangerous information that Walt Disney World received’t get a fifth gate! Walt Disney World shouldn’t be eager about one other brand-new theme park anytime quickly. There’s loads of room to enhance, increase, repair, and so on. the present gates.
Followers love the concept of a fifth theme park as a result of it’s a clean slate, able to holding a protracted want checklist of rides and lands. As an alternative of getting 1-2 rides right here or there, we get a half-dozen new lands. A model new theme park is horny and thrilling due to the limitless theoretical alternatives it presents. It’s enjoyable to daydream about Florida DisneySea or no matter could be in your good park.
There are few emotions like stepping foot in a brand-new park for the primary time–expansions completely don’t maintain a candle to that. I used to be reminded of this once more with my first go to to Epic Universe. However I’m additionally a realist. It’s enjoyable to dream, however the sensible actuality of a brand new theme park wouldn’t be good (simply as Epic Universe presently isn’t good). At finest, it could open incomplete.
If this fictional fifth gate at Walt Disney World have been on par with Walt Disney Studios Park (Paris), Disney’s California Journey, or Hong Kong Disneyland when any of these opened, the expertise could be completely underwhelming. Constructing Shanghai Disneyland…because it exists at this time…in Florida, USA…within the 2040s would value a minimum of $15 billion as soon as all is claimed and executed. Perhaps extra. Need Tokyo DisneySea? There’s no level in even speaking about that. Not even OLC would construct one other Tokyo DisneySea in at this time’s world. There’s completely no cause to imagine Disney would.
As thrilling as a fifth gate could be, it’s troublesome to advocate for that when Animal Kingdom continues to be a half-day park and in want of near a half-dozen extra rides. When Disney’s Hollywood Studios wants extra all-ages points of interest in order that its headliners don’t common 60+ minute waits and a large-scale alternative for the lifeless mall that’s Animation Courtyard. When EPCOT, even post-overhaul, wants one other new World Showcase pavilion, 3-4 rides, and reimaginings to some rides on the entrance of the park.
Exterior of the Dinoland plot, there’s a ton of unused or underutilized area in Animal Kingdom. That park already has nice bones–now how about a few all-new (not alternative) lands–that turns it right into a full day-plus park? There’s limitless potential at EPCOT.
Backstage amenities might be relocated at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, permitting for the smallest park to develop into bigger structure. Imagineering is a lot able to dreaming up tens of billions of {dollars} of incredible concepts for the present 4 parks at Walt Disney World past all the things that’s already been introduced.
And people are simply the issues that basically must be executed on the current parks. That checklist didn’t embody enlargement at Magic Kingdom, which “wants” the least assist. There are a ton of discretionary tasks that might occur on the current gates to actually enhance them, and Villains Land is a kind of.
Oh, and as soon as Villains Land is completed, its laydown yards will flip quite a lot of the land to the northwest of Magic Kingdom from “marginally unsuitable” to “marginally appropriate” (see above). That land that might develop into future park enlargement to construct out Magic Kingdom even additional. Or, extra probably, an in-park resort–that might account for a pair thousand of the “keys” permitted within the 2045 Plan.
If you add the aforementioned infrastructure to the combo, the prices of setting up a brand new theme park would eat away a number of billions of {dollars} that might be spent on substantive additions as a substitute. Loads of followers are upset about Walt Disney World’s method to increasing inside the berm within the subsequent ~5 years, but it surely’s an extremely environment friendly use of assets that ought to supply significantly extra bang for buck.
Whereas among the selections being made as half of the present plans strike me as short-sighted, I’ll nonetheless take a maximization of the funding, and have that cash allotted in direction of increasing the present parks and reimagining rides which are at the moment underutilized or outdated.
I do know that’s not the thrilling selection and could be an unpopular opinion. However the different is the present 4 gates stagnating for many years to return–and that’s assuming a brand new gate could be correctly built-out within the first place, and wouldn’t require one other decade to repair or increase. I solely plan on residing till I’m ~150 years previous, and I’m unsure if that’s sufficient time for Animal Kingdom to be correctly built-out right into a full-day park if Disney chases this fifth gate folly.
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Your Ideas
Do you assume a fifth main theme park plus fourth & fifth minor parks are on the horizon at Walt Disney World earlier than 2045? Would you wish to see the corporate spend $10 to fifteen billion to construct a brand-new theme park, or would you favor it spent on increasing the present 4 parks (and maintaining the lights on at each water parks)? Do you agree or disagree with our causes as to why one is unlikely–or fascinating–within the foreseeable future? Another ideas or commentary so as to add? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
