It’s time for an on-the-ground report on winter and early spring crowds at Disneyland. We’ll check out January by March 2024 wait occasions, how busy the parks are proper now, and the notion that “revenge journey” is (supposedly) burning out. Plus, predictions for Spring Break season at Disney California Journey and Disneyland.
Let’s begin by bringing you on top of things on crowds at Disneyland. There was a slight slowdown final yr after the increase of pent-up demand in 2022. Common wait occasions had been down year-over-year by 5 minutes, which is very important. Nonetheless, it’s additionally missing in context.
Whereas that was the most important annual drop since we’ve been measuring crowd ranges at Disneyland, it additionally adopted the most important annual spike. Wait occasions elevated by a whopping 9 minutes from 2021 to 2022, which was extra of a median yr (common wait occasions in 2019 and 2020 pre-closure had been each 26 minutes). In different phrases, the 5 minute drop was quite a bit…however it nonetheless amounted to attend occasions that had been +3 as in comparison with 2019.
Additional context is that Walt Disney World noticed a larger exhaustion in pent-up demand final yr. Nonetheless, Walt Disney World additionally noticed revenge journey crowds arrive earlier since Florida successfully reopened earlier than California. (Bear in mind, Disneyland was closed for over a yr–Walt Disney World just for just a few months.) Due to that, Disneyland’s pent-up demand has lagged Walt Disney World by a few yr.
Due to that, Walt Disney World has seen falling attendance and lodge occupancy, and has resorted to extra aggressive reductions and extra with a view to entice individuals to go to. That is all in keeping with Disney’s personal earnings calls, and isn’t speculative. Due to that, we suspect (right here comes the speculative half) that Disney needed to get forward of the identical dynamic occurring at Disneyland in 2024.
Because of this, the corporate launched the full 2024 calendar of occasions at Disneyland and the leisure schedule for 2024 far sooner than regular in an effort to get individuals to plan and guide journeys. Much more considerably, one other “lever” Disney pulled was the discharge of the Children’ Ticket Low cost at Disneyland, which supplied $50 tickets for teenagers. We’ve heard it was extremely widespread–it ends on March 10, 2024 simply in time for the beginning of Spring Break.
Different strikes are much less noteworthy. The Southern California resident ticket deal is again, however it’s at all times supplied this time of yr. This yr’s quirk is that the tip date is later than regular, and overlaps with the return of Fantasmic–and likewise that there’s a model together with weekends. Magic Key gross sales have additionally resumed–twice–however the identical factor occurred final yr. The added wrinkle is that they went on sale once more proper earlier than Spring Break, which may counsel some softness in Disney’s projections. Or not, who even is aware of anymore!
Towards that backdrop, let’s flip to a number of the numbers thus far for 2024. Word that what’s coated right here is posted wait occasions pulled from the Disneyland app and compiled into graphs overlaying varied days, weeks, months, and years. Posted wait occasions are good for figuring out huge image tendencies, however the information just isn’t conclusive of in-park congestion or “looks like” crowds.
Posted wait occasions provide perception into how busy Disneyland is, however they’re an imperfect measure of crowds, particularly when you’re evaluating present circumstances to prior years. Disneyland attendance has elevated by a number of million individuals for the reason that overhaul of Disney California Journey, and demographics have additionally shifted. The tip result’s that almost all of days in 2024 can be extra crowded than their counterparts in 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, and so on. Mainly, any yr that isn’t 2022!
With that out of the way in which, let’s dig into the info and take a look at Disneyland Resort wait occasions. As at all times, graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:
every day numbers throughout all of Disneyland year-to-date, it’s a narrative that’s considerably much like our wait time stories from Walt Disney World–besides with larger averages throughout the board and rather more consistency. That is really a stunning quantity of consistency, and never the norm for the primary couple months of the yr.
Sometimes, there could be an enormous spike for the primary week because the parks got here down off their vacation highs. As soon as colleges went again into session, there’d be a lull apart from will increase for sure days of the week and holidays. This yr, we additionally may’ve anticipated a rise for the return of the Disneyland Half Marathon. However apart from that, a lot of ‘inexperienced days’ on the gang calendar/wait occasions report.
What we really acquired had been just a few mild inexperienced days and solely 3 really uncrowded dates. Sadly, these three days originally of February had completely nothing to do with the winter low season. These had been the return of California’s atmospheric river, mainly monsoon days at Disneyland. As soon as the climate acquired higher, there was a pointy spike and crowds have been much more elevated ever since.
A few of you would possibly say that that is unsurprising and the way Disneyland crowd ranges ought to look, given the park reservation system that’s nonetheless in place and the shortage of availability on many dates. And also you’re proper in regards to the second level–it ought to appear to be this! However you’re unsuitable in regards to the first level…
Above is identical every day graph, however for 2023 by the beginning of Spring Break season. This nonetheless isn’t regular by ~2019 requirements, however it offers us a greater approximation of what winter crowd tendencies are like. Right here you’ll be able to see all the things that’s described above–crowds beginning excessive after New Yr’s however leveling off till Ski Week/Mid-Winter Break.
There’s a bit an excessive amount of day-to-day volatility (as in comparison with the norm), which was most likely attributable to Disneyland not having fairly sufficient finesse with the park reservation system. In any case, there have been quite a lot of dates the place reservation availability for everybody besides Magic Key APs was ample. Precisely what you’d anticipate to see through the winter months, although.
It’s additionally value noting that this encompassed the beginning of Disney100 at Disneyland, which included the opening of Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway and debuts of each Wondrous Journeys and World of Colour – ONE. Magic Occurs additionally returned after a virtually three-year hiatus and was mainly brand-new. Level being: though some “stuff” has occurred in early 2024, much more occurred in early 2023.
This year-over-year enhance in constant crowds for 2024 as in comparison with 2023 is attention-grabbing as a result of it’s the other of what we’d’ve anticipated to happen. As mentioned within the preface, Disneyland is lagging Walt Disney World by a few yr by way of pent-up demand. So all else being equal, we’d’ve anticipated an extra downtrend this yr at Disneyland.
That’s particularly the case when evaluating the seasonal or particular choices between the 2 years. The beginning of Disney100 and stuff opening then was an enormous deal, as was the return of Magic Occurs after an extended absence. This yr introduced with it Mickey’s Combine Magic, plus choices that had been additionally accessible final yr, minus Fantasmic. It was an objectively weaker slate, and given how a lot of Disneyland’s demand is pushed by locals, ought to have meant decrease attendance.
And that’s what would’ve occurred, if it weren’t for these meddling Disney executives! They pulled a few of their “levers” to entice extra demand, and voila, it labored. The end result-determinative “lever” just about needed to have been the children ticket deal, since that was not supplied final yr.
It’s additionally attainable that the rebound is due partly or totally to externalities. That is one thing we mentioned lately in Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. In a nutshell, attainable elements for the bounceback are that fears of a recession are diminishing, inflation is easing, actual wages are growing, and client confidence is enhancing.
One other chance is that this is likely to be a slight ‘reverberation’ after the pent-up demand of 2022. That 2023 was the ‘break’ yr for households that go to Disneyland semi-frequently, and so they’re returning in 2024. For those who’re a Disneyland fan, you’re most likely acquainted with Southern California site visitors–consider it just like the accordion impact there. Or maybe the ripple talked about in World of Colour – ONE.
A last extra unique-to-California chance is the rebound of worldwide tourism. This isn’t totally distinctive, it’s occurring in Florida, too. The distinction is demographics. Southern California is drawing extra from Asia, and lots of nations there had far slower reopenings. Yr-over-year in January, Los Angeles Worldwide Airport noticed a 19% enhance in inbound worldwide passenger quantity (versus a 2% lower in home). In the meantime, Common Studios Hollywood simply introduced again Mandarin on the Studio Tram Tour.
In different phrases, the children tickets could possibly be one driver of the rise–however there are additionally quite a lot of actual world elements at play that would additionally clarify Disneyland’s resilient attendance within the winter (air quotes) “low season.”
With the wait occasions information out of the way in which, let’s flip to our on-the-ground observations. We pop into the parks frequently, however truthfully, haven’t had any prolonged park time this yr till the previous couple of weeks. Having a child had restricted our visits to 4-5 hours at a time, however she’s beginning to actually reply to and benefit from the visits, so we’ve been going longer.
Our experiences roughly match the info. Yep, it’s busy at Disneyland! Very insightful, proper? Taking {that a} step additional, there have been a few issues that I seen. The primary is that there appear to be extra households with babies. Frankly, this could possibly be affirmation bias. My concept for the elevated crowds has been the children ticket deal, so perhaps I used to be on the lookout for indicators of it.
There’s additionally the kinda bizarre incontrovertible fact that I now discover myself “testing” strollers and different kid-related merchandise to see what different dad and mom are utilizing and attempting to determine if we want one thing we don’t but have. This isn’t the primary time I’ve been troubled with GAS (it doesn’t imply what you suppose it means). It’s a identified situation within the pictures group, and stands for Gear Acquisition Syndrome. I used to seek out myself testing others’ cameras and lenses, now I’m doing the identical factor with strollers and equipment. Now I do know what “historical past doesn’t repeat itself, however it typically rhymes” means.
Anyway, I’m fairly positive there have been extra strollers at Disneyland than regular. That or I’m noticing extra of them. However I’m fairly positive it’s each, which might make sense given the children ticket deal.
The opposite development of which I’m completely constructive is that Lightning Lane return traces are longer. That is one thing that’s gotten progressively worse on each coasts over the course of the final year-plus, so it’s not in the slightest degree stunning, however it’s undoubtedly taking place. For a lot of sights, there are actually devoted Lightning Lane switchbacks outdoors the doorway.
Some Disneyland diehards have seen this and drawn precisely the unsuitable conclusion, which is that individuals are suckers to pay for Genie+ as a result of now the standby line is shorter. I’ve even seen some movies exhibiting lengthy Lightning Lane returns and brief standby traces.
What these movies don’t present is the merge level, the place standby involves a standstill because the ratio of friends skews strongly in favor of the Lightning Lane. After all, the purpose isn’t accuracy–it’s shock worth. However who cares in regards to the bodily size of a line? By this identical customary, the ~15 minute wait occasions through the bodily distanced period that had lengthy traces attributable to spacing had been additionally unhealthy. It’s the wait time that issues, and people are far worse for standby than Lightning Lane customers.
To be clear, this isn’t a protection or endorsement of Genie+ or Lightning Lanes. I’m merely mentioning what’s significant versus what’s meaningless. Lightning Lane return traces have gotten longer, that half is true. The service isn’t fairly as environment friendly because it was in 2022. The proportion of friends utilizing Lightning Lanes–both on account of Genie+ or DAS–has additionally seemingly gone up. However that doesn’t make the standby line extra environment friendly–that half is most undoubtedly unfaithful. Standby is even worse on most sights!
The excellent news is that crowd ranges should not static all through the day. Throughout a traditional vacationer season, Disneyland sees a rise in earlier arrivals, as guests on trip are extra inclined to reach for or nearer to rope drop. In contrast, locals usually tend to roll up late, having to take care of SoCal site visitors and parking.
I’ve finished just a few Early Entry and twine drop days at each Disneyland and DCA, and located the gang ranges to be very manageable till round 11 am. It’s nonetheless attainable to beat the crowds and get a ton finished very first thing. Early Entry continues to be glorious, even with the decreased schedule. It’s an analogous situation on the finish of the night, particularly on college nights.
Suffice to say, you’ll be able to accomplish quite a bit within the first few hours of the day or final couple hours at Disneyland and Disney California Journey. You possibly can nonetheless rope drop Peter Pan’s Flight and knock out everything of Fantasyland with minimal wait. You too can hit Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance at rope drop for a forty five minute or much less standby wait.
For that matter, you are able to do Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance even after that preliminary wave and nonetheless not have too lengthy of a wait. Identical goes with Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, House Mountain, and Indiana Jones Journey. All of those rides can have longer wait occasions later within the day–and contours that transfer at a snail’s tempo because of the Lightning Lanes–however they’re are blissful early on. They’re additionally, sadly, all in several corners of the park, which makes strategizing tough except you don’t thoughts quite a lot of backtracking.
It will most likely change with the arrival of Spring Break season, and return once more through the shoulder season earlier than the scales tip considerably in favor of vacationers from June by mid-August. However the primary level is that Genie+ just isn’t a must-buy. You’ll get extra finished with it through the coronary heart of the day (and we advocate at the least at some point with paid FastPass–see our Information to Genie+ and Lightning Lanes at Disneyland & DCA for extra on that), however when you can’t or don’t need to splurge, getting up and out the door early nonetheless works!
Trying ahead, the subsequent few weeks are Spring Break season at Disneyland. Objectively talking, common wait occasions ought to spike. Subjectively, we’d anticipate much more congestion–particularly for leisure. Wondrous Journeys returns March 22 for a quick 3-week run, and Foremost Avenue is bound to be packed hours upfront of that fan-favorite fireworks present.
Though the beginning of Spring Break season is upon us, it shouldn’t kick into excessive gear till March 15, 2024. In perusing native college calendars, the second most-common week is March 18-22, 2024. Far and away the most typical is March 25-29, 2024; that features the large Los Angeles Unified College District.
Surrounding states (particularly Utah and Nevada) additionally issue into the combo, that means that Disneyland can be seeing important Spring Break crowds from roughly March 15 till April 8, 2024. The excellent news is that that is really shorter than the window for Walt Disney World Spring Break season, owing to districts within the Midwest and Northeast which have a lot later recesses probably not factoring into California crowds.
The unhealthy information is just about already mentioned above–that crowds have been constantly unhealthy up to now in 2024. Whereas it’s attainable that there can be a spike and a lower, it’s additionally attainable that Disneyland stays constantly busy. Except it rains. Or except the children ticket deal really was the large driver of crowds up to now in 2024. I assume we will see!
Planning a Southern California trip? For park admission offers, learn Ideas for Saving Cash on Disneyland Tickets. Study on-site and off-site motels in our Anaheim Lodge Critiques & Rankings. For the place to eat, take a look at our Disneyland Restaurant Critiques. For distinctive concepts of issues that’ll enhance your journey, take a look at What to Pack for Disney. For complete recommendation, seek the advice of our Disneyland Trip Planning Information. Lastly, for guides past Disney, take a look at our Southern California Itineraries for day journeys to Los Angeles, Laguna Seaside, and lots of different SoCal cities!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on the crowds in 2024 up to now at Disneyland? Do you suppose the large driver of upper attendance and wait occasions has been the children ticket deal or the actual world externalities…or a little bit of each? Predictions on crowds for Spring Break 2024? Suppose there’ll lastly be a slowdown for shoulder season? For those who’ve visited final two months, what did you consider crowds and wait occasions? Ideas on Lightning Lane return traces? Any days or occasions appear noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
