It’s been a season of curler coaster crowds at Walt Disney World–excessive highs adopted by low lows–a pattern that’ll proceed with the arrival of extra vacation weekends and college breaks this winter. This wait occasions report shares knowledge for the final month and year-over-year comparisons, plus our theories as to what’s occurring with attendance & strains–and why wait occasions are getting worse at portray a whole image of crowds.
One factor these crowd experiences now not have to do is supply an extended preface to assist clarify their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal listing of the “Prime” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Fallacious About Crowds. That’s value studying in order for you a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait occasions, and some pretty straightforward methods to “beat” the crowds.
Which means we are able to dig proper in and rapidly recap the vacation season. Christmas is now formally within the books, with Magic Kingdom taking down its decor and turning off the music as of yesterday (January 15). That makes it a superb time to do a autopsy on crowds. Wait occasions for Walt Disney World as an entire have been down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation from mid-November by way of mid-January. This doesn’t imply there weren’t 9/10 or 10/10 crowd stage days–there completely have been–so let’s break down what it does imply…
Jersey Week by way of Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to reasonable territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. I used to be within the parks for many of this time, and my anecdotal notion was that it wasn’t too unhealthy. Even the busiest stretch wasn’t unhealthy, particularly when it got here to Lightning Lane or technique testing. That little lower than per week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. However even at its top, Thanksgiving week was not actually busy. Crowd ranges, no less than as measured by wait occasions, ended up being reasonable. (As at all times, congestion is a special story.)
That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges. Throughout the first 3 weeks of December, common wait occasions throughout the whole lot of Walt Disney World ranged from 26 to 29 minutes. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final 12 months (which was decrease than the earlier 12 months, too).
Most surprisingly, wait occasions dropped every week, making our favourite week of the whole 12 months at Walt Disney World the “busiest” of the bunch. We’re nonetheless speaking low ranges, however often every week of December will get progressively busier.
My finest guess is that larger costs are having a deterrent impact on attendance outdoors of vacation home windows (that means company who aren’t beholden to high school breaks are extra inclined to comparability store dates based mostly on worth), and that’s one thing value conserving in thoughts. With revenge journey firmly within the rearview mirror, many customers have gotten extra cost-conscious and fewer free spending. (This might clarify a whole lot of different developments we’ve noticed currently.)
What got here subsequent confirmed the limitation of upper costs having a deterrent impact on attendance throughout faculty breaks. The week of Christmas had a 46 minute common wait time–20 minutes larger than the week instantly earlier than it–for a 9/10 crowd stage that was sufficient to make it the busiest week since Easter.
The week encompassing New Yr’s Eve had a 50 minute common for 10/10 crowd ranges, making it, as soon as once more, the busiest of the 12 months at Walt Disney World. Hardly a shock, because the week of NYE is constantly the worst of the 12 months. (Word that each holidays fell on Wednesdays, so these weeks really included days earlier than and after every.)
Additionally unsurprising is that crowds have dropped since then. Final week had a 33 minute common for 4/10 crowds, and this week-to-date is sitting at 25 minutes for 1/10 crowd ranges. These developments are roughly what you’d anticipate, however that also doesn’t even start to inform the total story. We’ll cowl what this implies and, maybe extra importantly, what it doesn’t imply, beneath.
First, right here’s a take a look at weekly wait time developments courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:
This reveals weekly wait time knowledge courting again to 2019. The left peak is that Christmas and New Yr’s Eve, from earlier than the world went sideways (therefore the hole for a pair months in 2020). Then there’s a bunch of ineffective knowledge from mid-2020 and 2021, adopted by related peaks on the opposite half for the final three years.
The week within the lead-up to New Yr’s Eve in late 2023 is the tallest line on that graph (barely), with a mean wait time of 61 minutes. That’s 11 minutes busier than the comparable week in 2024. However once more, there isn’t actually a very comparable week. December 31, 2023 was a Sunday, that means that was a full week for the needs of those timeframes. So it’s not an apples to apples comparability.
Nonetheless, 2023’s week main as much as New Yr’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World because the similar week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is notably notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower 12 months than 2022. We’ve been speaking in regards to the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, but it surely really began final 12 months with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New Yr’s Eve was the uncommon–and vital–exception to that.
Even with out apples to apples comparisons, you may plainly see this gradual weekly downtrend from 2022 highs to 2023 and 2024. It’s most likely harder to discern, however 2019 wait occasions sit just under 2022. It bears emphasizing that wait occasions are not a proxy for park attendance. There are such a lot of issues that affect posted wait occasions knowledge and make annual comparisons from 2019 to now pointless (free FastPass+ vs. paid Lightning Lanes, and the utilization of every being one biggie). However we’re getting forward of ourselves–extra alongside these strains beneath.
Right here’s a take a look at each day wait occasions over the course of the final 12 months:
The far left begins with mid-January 2024, and the far proper is mid-January 2025. Clearly, all the times in between are in between.
Have a look at the far left facet. The primary large spike there’s Presidents’ Day, then early Spring Break, adopted by Easter. What’s most noticeable, I feel, is how largely elevated these days are as in comparison with the post-Easter drop-off in early April. That is exactly what prompted us to put in writing Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World final 12 months. After virtually a full 12 months of declining wait occasions (versus the identical months within the prior 12 months), January by way of March 2024 noticed wait occasions improve.
It didn’t final. Those that observe crowd patterns want no reminder, however final summer time’s “efficiency” revived commentary that Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World, with different websites even claiming it’s now low season. It isn’t, as must be apparent by the prolonged sea of inexperienced beginning in late August.
Now in equity, there have been two hurricanes that collectively price Walt Disney World $130 million in misplaced income. Even at Disney costs, that quantities to a whole lot of cancellations, explaining why late September by way of the primary few weeks of October have been artificially depressed. Fall break nonetheless noticed a comparative spike, however not practically to the extent as regular–or it might’ve however for the hurricanes.
Nonetheless, the decrease wait occasions persevered into elements of November and December, and there’s no climate to clarify these away. Equally as vital, this 12 months’s wait occasions fell off a cliff on January 12, 2025 to ranges far beneath the identical dates final 12 months. So the large query turns into…are there any alternative ways to clarify this away?
Sure, no less than to some extent. Frankly, there should be, as Disney hasn’t reported a steep drop off in attendance on its earnings calls. They did warn traders of attendance softness and demand moderation by way of 2025 throughout one earnings name earlier within the 12 months. Nonetheless, the newest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers to the prior-year quarter, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely.
In contrast, Walt Disney World’s wait occasions do present a steep drop, extra like 10%. This got here as quarterly income elevated, and annual income reached a brand new file, up by 5% versus the prior 12 months. That’s not simply Walt Disney World, although; it additionally contains Disneyland and the worldwide parks, in addition to (maybe most notably) Disney Cruise Line. So not a lot will be gleaned from that.
This comes on the similar time when Common reported income for its theme parks division down 5.3% on lighter attendance (to an unknown diploma). The distinction is that Common opened Tremendous Nintendo World in Hollywood in early 2023, and noticed a pointy drop-off final 12 months after that. In Orlando, followers have been suspending visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe. Not a lot we are able to surmise about Walt Disney World attendance from any of this.
In our view, the only largest rationalization for the drop in wait occasions is that Walt Disney World made main adjustments to its queueing insurance policies in mid-2024. Wait occasions haven’t been as excessive since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this in Right here’s Why Standby Strains and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Sooner at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually value studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait occasions.
Throughout our vacation season visits to EPCOT, specifically, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. In the event you have been simply strolling round having fun with the environment, as many company have been clearly doing, you’ll’ve perceived what felt like 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait occasions, however, mirrored crowd ranges of round 4/10 to six/10 on these days.
It was an analogous story in Magic Kingdom, particularly within the evenings on non-party dates. These definitely really feel like they’re getting worse, to the purpose that I’d hazard a guess that Walt Disney World’s experiment in providing free Park Hoppers–virtually definitely achieved to normalize attendance throughout get together season–backfired and made Magic Kingdom busier on dates it was open later.
We’ve mentioned all of this a number of occasions over the past couple of months, but it surely all bears reiterating as Winter 2025 heats up. EPCOT’s Competition of the Arts begins tomorrow (January 17, 2025), and this annual occasion has develop into a fan-favorite that’s a giant draw for locals and vacationers alike.
This weekend is a vacation weekend, so it’d possible see a spike in attendance regardless, however we’re anticipating that will likely be sustained. Simply as we wrote final 12 months, winter nonetheless isn’t low season–and that’s nonetheless (nonetheless nonetheless) the case even when attraction wait occasions recommend in any other case.
Finally, this does current us with one thing of a dilemma in the way to talk about wait occasions and crowds going ahead.
Wait occasions are used as a proxy for crowd ranges as a result of they’re the one goal measure for that. There’s actually no different–even when somebody had infinite assets and will make use of 8 researchers to be within the parks each single day from opening till shut, that will nonetheless be too anecdotal to be of worth. And on the finish of the day, wait occasions nonetheless are what’s vital to most planners, even when congestion can go away an outsized impression.
It however bears strongly underscoring this rising disconnect between wait occasions and congestion or appears like crowds. We will solely assume that wait occasions will proceed to be down considerably year-over-year as a result of aforementioned queueing coverage adjustments and postponed visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe (and Disney Starlight Evening Parade), however solely the latter impacts attendance. These coverage adjustments will proceed to make for tough year-over-year wait time comparisons till round Summer time 2025, which is true across the time attendance may additionally see a lift as a result of new additions. Which may make for a double-whammy the place the numbers go from showing down considerably year-over-year to up by related margins.
All of that is my means of claiming to not take wait occasions and crowd stage reporting too critically proper now, no less than in relation to year-over-year comparisons. This web site and others are going to proceed sharing the the info is trending downwards. That’s true. Nevertheless it’s at all times been the case that wait occasions offered an incomplete image of crowds. Now it’s actually true, to the purpose that you just could be disenchanted or shocked if you happen to simply take a look at the stats and expect the parks to be ghost cities throughout your go to. Attendance could be down barely, but it surely gained’t be to almost that diploma.
On the contrary, all it takes for even heavier appears like crowds year-over-year is extra locals and followers within the parks versus first-timers. The previous teams usually tend to wander round and do issues aside from sights, whereas the latter focus extra on rides. And this may very properly occur if extra APs are in circulation, ticket offers show well-liked, or first-timers balk at the price of Disney holidays. That’s to say nothing of diminished capability because of refurbishments, closures and building. The underside line is that there are a whole lot of variables that contribute to congestion or appears like crowds, and wait occasions are just one piece of the puzzle.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider wait time and crowd developments over the course of the final 6-7 months, however particularly throughout the latest vacation season and Winter 2025? Count on ‘appears like’ crowds to be heavy over the following couple of months, even when the wait occasions recommend a slowdown? Another crowd concerns we did not take into consideration or particulars we missed/bought improper? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
