One of many busiest instances of the yr at Walt Disney World is fall break. Federal holidays and college recesses trigger crowd ranges to spike, which catches many guests without warning. October 2024 shall be a bit totally different than regular, however we’re nonetheless anticipating weeks with excessive wait instances in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–the busiest dates since Easter!
Technically, fall break “season” has already began. Some college districts do a number of ‘pupil holidays’ or ‘skilled improvement days’ for lecturers in late September and October. Different schools, universities, and Ok-12 college programs take longer breaks deeper into the month of October.
It’s not simply fall breaks that contribute to congestion, both; as coated in our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are a selection of explanation why the subsequent few months include a few of the busiest dates of the whole yr. With that mentioned, this yr is certainly going to be totally different–as emphasised within the opening–making the already unpredictable fall break crowds even much less predictable than regular…
The large wildcard this yr is the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. This submit was initially slated to be revealed in late September, however the arrival of Helene prompted us to postpone, eager to see the potential affect it had. Sadly, it was a major one. Not for Central Florida, however that isn’t the one–and even main–consideration since Walt Disney World is a vacationer vacation spot fueled by out-of-state guests.
It was once more slated to be posted over the weekend, however then Hurricane Milton entered the chat. This storm system did undergo Orlando and even resulted within the closure of Walt Disney World. Fortunately, Milton was not as catastrophic as anticipated. However once more, that’s not the one related consideration in how this storm has or will affect crowds. In each instances, it’s the cascading results.
Usually, the weekend of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day is among the many worst of the autumn break season. That won’t be the case this yr, resulting from households from out-of-state cancelling their holidays and on account of restricted park reservations for Annual Passholders as Walt Disney World works to cut back up and recuperate post-storm.
It’s our expectation that this weekend shall be very busy by post-storm requirements (that are usually fairly sluggish), however attendance shall be down dramatically by vacation weekend requirements. There’ll possible be an enormous year-over-year lower in wait instances on account of cancelled journeys, journey disruptions, and potential attendance constraints for Annual Passholders.
There’s additionally the fact that college students all through Florida and the remainder of the South have now handled two storms in below a month. The regular post-storm dynamic is that locals are desirous to get out of the home and Walt Disney World sees a spike in visitation amongst Annual Passholders and different Floridians. And that would occur this weekend to some extent–nevertheless it received’t be sufficient to offset the cancellations.
Equally vital is the cumulative impact of college closures in some main districts for successive storms. Our fall break crowd forecasts are usually pushed by a mix of college calendars from Southern states in addition to “feeder” districts within the Midwest and Northeast. Sadly, many households from the latter may have cancelled their journeys and others from the previous might lose their fall breaks resulting from storm make-up days. So the revealed district calendars are virtually ineffective for forecasting October 2024 crowds.
The excellent news is that we do have kernels of data to make semi-informed (albeit typically outdated) predictions. For starters, Walt Disney World has prolonged park hours all through October 2024. These extensions sign that the interior attendance forecast is elevated for a minimum of a part of the month, and this follow of extending hours occurs with consistency at any time when crowd ranges are anticipated to be above-average to heavy.
On dates which are forecast to be busiest, Magic Kingdom is closing at 11 pm on nights when it’s not internet hosting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Social gathering and is opening at 8 am on most days–get together or not. Animal Kingdom is opening at 8 am and staying open till 7 pm on many nights. Sadly, each EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are retaining their 9 am to 9 pm hours for now.
In trying solely on the persistently longest park hours extensions, Walt Disney World expects October 11 to October 21, 2024 to be the height of fall break season within the parks. Remember the fact that these prolonged hours first began hitting the calendar a number of weeks in the past–this weekend was prolonged in late September, earlier than even Hurricane Helene was forecast. And in the case of including hours, Walt Disney World typically has a “no takebacks” philosophy, which means that when hours are prolonged, they aren’t undone–even when not “wanted.”
Walt Disney World’s park hours extensions are per our predictions, additionally made lengthy earlier than the hurricanes. We had flagged October 11-19, 2024 as being one of many the ten worst ‘weeks’ of the yr. Actually–see our checklist of the 10 Finest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2026.
Within the commentary to that checklist, we famous that final yr’s fall break was “solely” the #9 worst week of the yr and there was a good likelihood it might fall of the checklist fully in 2024. We famous that some potential guests could be spooked away by storm season or still-hot climate. Because it seems, that was correct–though “spooked by storm season” has turned out to be a light understatement!
However, we identified that these dates would usher in the long run of the low season, and begin of a 3-month stretch of elevated crowds–minus a number of main lulls. That half is correct, even after the hurricanes. Walt Disney World is coming off its slowest 8-week stretch (quickly to be 9-week stretch due to Milton), and the arrival of fall break will completely change that. This weekend and coming week is not going to be among the many worst 10 of the yr–and doubtless not even the worst 20–resulting from hurricane disruptions. It’ll nonetheless be busy sufficient to finish low season–it is a turning level for Walt Disney World crowds.
As for which week of fall break will possible be the busiest, it’s tough to say. Much more main college districts have earlier pupil recesses than have later ones. Even with Milton-induced cancellations, there’s nonetheless a robust chance that October 11-19, 2024 finally ends up being worse than October 20-27, 2024.
Actually, I’d be inclined to wager that’s the case. The distinction is that, beforehand, our expectation was that fall break crowds would peak throughout the earlier half of that Oct. 11-19 vary, and begin dying down by the second weekend. Publish-Milton, our prediction is that attendance climbs all through these dates.
The rationale for that is easy: every day faraway from Milton, its impacts shall be much less pronounced. Out of state vacationers arriving on Saturday shall be much less more likely to cancel than these scheduled to reach Friday, these arriving Sunday much less more likely to cancel than these coming Saturday, and so forth.
Vacationers with journeys scheduled beginning October 15 in all probability is not going to be cancelling in any significant numbers–crowds will play out as predicted weeks or months in the past. Given this, our revised prediction is that the worst fall break crowds happen October 14-21, 2024 at Walt Disney World. That’s a reasonably protected wager post-storm, and it additionally encompasses two lengthy weekends and two Mondays–usually the busiest day of the week at Walt Disney World.
For reference, let’s check out final yr’s crowd ranges (courtesy of thrill-data.com). Common wait instances peaked on October 16, leaping to 50 minutes for a 9/10 crowd degree. Notably, that was the Monday after Columbus Day, which fell earlier final yr. Simply two weeks prior was nonetheless the low season.
Crowd ranges steadily fell all through the week, and by October 22, there was as soon as once more one other lull. Regardless of October 16 being the busiest single day, the height full week was truly October 9-15, 2023 (crowd degree 8/10 and common of 42 minutes). In contrast, October 16-22 had a crowd degree of 6/10 for a median of 38 minutes. Each of those weeks had been significantly slower than 2022, however that was the peak of pent-up demand.
In each of the final two years, crowd ranges drop by the final full week of October and keep low-to-moderate till Veterans Day. Opposite to standard perception, there’s not a spike for Halloween. There’s a little bit of a bump–albeit extra in “appears like” crowds than wait instances–for the runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon, although.
If annual patterns proceed to play out, Fall Break 2024 could be slower than final yr–that’s the overarching pattern. That just about definitely would’ve been true even earlier than Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Now it’s a finished deal. Simply remember the fact that “slower than final yr” is a relative time period and never an absolute one. Relative to the final two months, the subsequent couple of weeks will completely be busy–even within the aftermath of the storms.
It’s extremely unlikely that this yr’s fall break peak crowd ranges surpass Easter. That was extremely unlikely even earlier than the hurricanes, and was/is just a matter of developments noticed during the last couple of years. We don’t like utilizing the phrase “inconceivable,” nevertheless it’s a lot nearer to that than simply “extremely unlikely” at this level. The hurricanes sealed the deal on that.
However, one of many subsequent two weeks in all probability would be the busiest week since Spring Break. Once more, the affect of the hurricanes is an actual wildcard. However just about each single week since Easter has underperformed in 2024. The months of Might via September have all been down year-over-year, as has virtually each single week inside that stretch.
For fall break to be the busiest week since spring break, all it might have to do is have a median wait time of 36 minutes or greater. That’s solely a 5/10 crowd degree. Solely a few weeks since April have averaged 35-minute crowds; most have struggled simply to hit the 30-minute mark. The comps are fairly favorable and simple for fall break to beat–all of it comes right down to the extent of hurricane cancellations.
Subsequent, let’s speak wildcards. As mentioned in Finest & Worst Days to Do All Parks at Walt Disney World in 2024 (and numerous different posts), day of week developments actually matter this time of yr. Select the “right” parks on the very best days of the week, and also you’re more likely to have a pleasing expertise even in reasonable to above common crowds.
Select the “unsuitable” parks on the worst days of the week, and also you could be stunned by how excessive wait instances are even throughout weeks with 1/10 or 2/10 crowd ranges. Bear in mind, these are averages throughout all of Walt Disney World–there’s a ton of day-to-day inconsistency on the park degree.
One other attention-grabbing wildcard that would depress crowds additional is the shortage of a Florida resident ticket deal. One simply wrapped up on the finish of September, leading to a slight spike then. The distinction is that, final yr, one other Floridian ticket deal (for weekdays solely) virtually instantly launched for October via December. That has not occurred in 2024 (but?).
One other variable is that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Social gathering is offered out for each single date. That alone is fairly unremarkable, as the identical factor has occurred for the previous couple of years. What’s extra noteworthy is that October 2024 dates offered out even sooner than final yr (or the yr earlier than) regardless of pent-up demand in any other case being exhausted and common ticket costs being greater.
Now let’s speak beating the crowds. First, bear in mind how we mentioned prolonged park hours on the high of the submit? Effectively, these added hours are extremely advantageous–particularly the sooner opening instances since most vacationers don’t need to do the early wake-up name on trip.
Selecting the optimum days to do every par, particularly DHS and Magic Kingdom–after which making the most of Early Entry at each parks–is large. Don’t underestimate Early Entry, or visiting these parks on days which are more likely to be much less crowded. It’s an identical story with Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom within the evenings.
By merely arriving early or staying late at each park, you’ll be able to beat the worst of the noon crowds. (After all, that’s “easy” in principle however harder in follow, particularly if in case you have young children. That’s a giant motive why wait instances are decrease very first thing within the morning and later within the evenings.) Past that, you’ll want to additionally try our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of assault.
It’s fully doable to beat unhealthy crowds by using Lightning Lane Multi-Cross, Early Entry, Prolonged Night Hours, rope drop, and so on. We cowl the very best & worst method for every park in Finest Time-Saving Methods for Walt Disney World. Should you’re solely going to learn one planning submit, make it that.
There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Lightning Lane Multi-Cross (LLMP) or Single Cross (LLSP). We don’t purchase line-skipping providers more often than not, and discover we’re capable of just do high quality as long as we’re up early or out late–ideally each!
Talking of which, we have now a complete Information to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for individuals who need to completely grasp the most recent technology of paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s undoubtedly possibility for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT. (We seldom suggest LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that continues to be true throughout fall break, too.)
Total, that’s about what you’ll be able to anticipate to expertise throughout Fall Break 2024 at Walt Disney World. Anticipate elevated ‘appears like’ crowds beginning just about proper now, even within the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. How issues unfold over the course of the subsequent two weeks actually relies upon upon what number of Northeast and Midwest vacationers acquired spooked into cancelling their journeys plus what number of Southern states misplaced their lengthy weekends for hurricane make-up days.
Neither of these issues we are able to predict with any diploma of confidence. My private expectation is that subsequent Monday, October 14, is the begin of busier days that continues all through the next week, with the probability of a later peak than initially anticipated. Even with Columbus Day falling later this yr, the height will even in all probability occur later.
We aren’t utterly assured that the final week-plus of October may have the identical diploma of slowdown as final yr. There are college districts with late fall breaks, and that coupled with vacationers who postponed journeys–reasonably than cancelling utterly–might transfer the needle. There are additionally a few enormous conventions within the final two weeks that would actually throw a monkey wrench into crowds. Regardless, there ought to be a short slowdown in late October and early November earlier than the vacation season kicks into excessive gear.
In the long run, we wouldn’t essentially keep away from fall break ‘season’ if in case you have a school-aged baby and don’t have any higher choices exterior of the large vacation breaks within the closing quarter of the yr. All of these (Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s) are a lot worse than fall break in a traditional yr with none hurricanes artificially miserable crowds.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about inns on our Walt Disney World Accommodations Opinions web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Opinions. To save cash on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the very best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every part you must know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World throughout fall break previously? What did you consider the crowds? Are you visiting this yr? Did you cancel your fall break journey resulting from Hurricane Milton? Should you’re in a southern college district, have you ever misplaced fall break resulting from hurricane make-up? Anything we missed that would affect crowds in October 2024? Do you agree or disagree with something in our Fall Break 2024 Crowd Forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
