Throughout an earnings name, CEO Bob Iger gave a surprisingly candid response when requested about new Disney theme parks in numerous international locations, saying “there’s an inevitability to us constructing parks in different international locations, however it doesn’t essentially imply that we’re going to construct one thing anytime very quickly.” (Up to date Might 5, 2025.)
Iger additionally remarked that Disney believes there’s “alternative to develop in China, and there can also be alternatives in different elements of the world.” He additionally indicated that Disney often engages in conversations with representatives from completely different markets who would like to put Disneyland of their market.
Given attendance developments, the chatter about additional improvement ought to come as no shock. It looks as if practically each quarter, we hear experiences of attendance and different development. Notably since 2011, the U.S. Disney Parks have seen fairly constant annual attendance development.
Might 5, 2025 Replace: The above quotes got here in the course of the Q2 earnings name with buyers and Wall Avenue Analysts on Might 8, 2018. That’s a very long time in the past! Nonetheless, there’s a brand new rumor that just about 7 years to the day later, Disney will make a bombshell announcement a few new theme park previous to its Q2 earnings name for 2025.
Screamscape is reporting a rumor that Disney shall be making a serious announcement on Wednesday, Might 7, 2025, involving some form of venture within the United Arab Emirates. Search for this to get launched very first thing Wednesday morning on the East Coast, which additionally occurs to be the day that Disney will launch their Q2 2025 incomes outcomes that very same morning.
Abu Dhabi is dwelling to a number of excessive profile initiatives, similar to Ferrari World, Warner Bros World, SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, and extra. The rumor suggests it may be time for a Disney theme park or attraction within the United Arab Emirates capital.
For individuals who are newer to the scene, Screamscape is what I’d describe as a ‘legacy’ theme parks rumor mill. Through the years, they’ve had some massive swings leading to main misses–but in addition enormous hits. They’ve first reported rumors nobody else noticed coming, but in addition shared some utter nonsense. My guess could be that they’ve (or had) good sources but in addition terrible ones, and don’t assess credibility or veracity earlier than reporting to filter out the rubbish.
I’m inclined to imagine this falls into the rubbish bucket. However to not such a level that I’m simply dismissing it out of hand (therefore this text replace). It’s attainable that the UAE has made Disney a proposal the corporate can not refuse; they don’t have any scarcity of money and repute laundering is a excessive precedence.
What higher technique to accomplish that than with the Disney model? There’s a flip aspect of that, although–would even a sweetheart deal be sufficient to get Disney to simply accept the model tarnishment it’d entail? I’ve little question that the UAE has made overtures to Disney prior to now. What modified? Why settle for now? This doesn’t fairly go the scent take a look at for a lot of causes alongside these strains.
The opposite purpose I discover this doubtful is solely the reporting itself. This implies that “sources” (plural) inside Disney have shared this. This isn’t a brand new piece of leisure or experience reimagining–a brand new theme park announcement in all probability wouldn’t have a number of sources. The restricted individuals within the know wouldn’t be unlikely to speak about this, because it’s the kind of information that would transfer markets and value them extremely profitable jobs.
If that is true, it in all probability wouldn’t even be mentioned exterior of the Eisner constructing in Burbank. Even Imagineering would doubtless study this the identical day as everybody else. It’s beneath the pay grade of just about everybody exterior the c-suite. (I’ll eat my phrases right here if this will get introduced with detailed aerial idea artwork–however it received’t.)
Realistically, a rumor like this in all probability wouldn’t come from sources inside Disney (until it had been a visitor eating in The Rotunda and overhearing executives). It will be extra prone to come from somebody within the UAE SWFs, and even then, it may not be indicative of the place negotiations stand. It could possibly be a matter of leaking one thing to strengthen their place or for different ulterior motives. I haven’t the slightest clue–I simply know this isn’t the kind of factor that’s usually topic to rumors or leaks from Disney.
The opposite purpose I’m extremely skeptical of it is because the corporate has seemingly settled on its technique for introducing Disney Parks & Resorts (sorry, Disney Experiences) to new markets: cruise ships. That is the very apparent pivot, to the purpose that I strongly suspect if Bob Iger had been requested the identical query once more on Wednesday, 7 years later, he’d clarify why the cruise ship mannequin is extra nimble and dynamic, and fewer dangerous than constructing bodily infrastructure on overseas land. However that’s in all probability one other subject for one more publish.
The underside line is that I’m excessive skeptical this rumor is credible and can come to fruition, however there’s a shadow of a doubt given the aforementioned repute laundering angle. It’s believable, albeit unlikely, that one of many nation’s sovereign wealth funds backed up a cash truck to Disney and CEO Bob Iger views this as one final massive legacy venture. Stranger issues have occurred.
With that mentioned, right here’s our authentic commentary from 7 years in the past on this exact same subject…
The place Disney will construct its subsequent park is a query that comes up with shocking regularity. Partly, that’s in all probability as a result of it’s enjoyable to daydream, and plenty of Disney followers wish to think about a theme park of their yard.
For those who take heed to Texans, it’s virtually a prison offense that Disney has but to construct in the middle of the universe Texas. (No offense to the Texas-centrics studying this–maybe Disney is simply apprehensive that such a focus of awesomeness could be deadly to us non-Texans?)
The opposite purpose for this ongoing dialog is as a result of it looks as if each different week there’s one other article that makes the rounds about bogus plans for a brand new Disney park about to be in-built [insert random country here]. No, for actual this time. Whereas it’s simple to dismiss these tales as dumb clickbait, my suspicion is that many of those articles are fueled by politicians with varied ulterior motives. I received’t digress into that, although.
Each time pals have despatched these to me, my response has been the identical: I doubt I’ll see one other fort park open in my lifetime. Whereas this new quote by Bob Iger would possibly forged doubt on the chance of my ‘prediction’, I feel there’s nonetheless solely a 50/50 likelihood I’ll see the opening of one other fort park. Not as a result of I feel ‘Rio DisneySky’ is subsequent or as a result of I plan on dying in an epic bear-wrasslin’ battle in 4 years, however as a result of I simply don’t see any choices for resorts in new areas within the foreseeable future.
If I had been to prognosticate the long run improvement of Disney Parks across the globe, I feel the most secure predictions are new gates in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Anaheim, and Paris (in that order). Even then, these are doubtless not within the playing cards as close to or mid-term developments, besides maybe second gates in China and Hong Kong.
As all the time, right here’s Why a fifth Theme Park Will NOT Be Constructed at Disney World within the Subsequent Decade. Realistically, I’d prolong that to within the subsequent two a long time. The one purpose the title doesn’t finish with “in My Lifetime” is as a result of I plan on dwelling an obscenely very long time–we’re speaking mid triple digits–and it’s unimaginable to foresee what might occur as soon as we hit Walt Disney World’s one hundredth Anniversary.
Within the extra instant future, increasing Walt Disney World, Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland, Shanghai Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris are all deliberate. These initiatives have been introduced, in some circumstances building has begun, and they’ll devour a big quantity of Parks & Resort’s capex for the foreseeable future.
Timelines for the introduced initiatives listed above already stretch into the subsequent decade. It’s tough to see Parks & Resorts capex being diverted to creating new websites with any of these safer bets nonetheless on the desk. As soon as these enlargement initiatives plus yet-unannounced second or third gates are accomplished, we’re already taking a look at 2040, on the earliest.
Setting that apart, and assuming arguendo that Disney has a extra instant want to construct in a brand new locale, there are fundamental conditions. First, the situation must have a excessive focus of center class residents inside shut proximity; spitballing, I’d say there should be over 50 million income-qualified potential friends inside 4 hours by public transportation.
Second, the situation must be someplace that might not cannibalize a big quantity of enterprise from Disney’s present parks. That is the one which eliminates actually another location in america. (Sorry, Texas.) It additionally eliminates wherever in Europe.
Third, the situation must be someplace that has demonstrated long-term political stability. A spot that has financial or political volatility wouldn’t be a superb suitor. This would possibly get rid of Brazil (and a lot of different areas, most of which had been in all probability already eradicated, anyway), which in any other case could be an apparent candidate.
Fourth, the selection must be comparatively uncontroversial for a family-friendly, all-American model like Disney. I feel this would possibly rule out locations like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar. These international locations in any other case have governments with the sources to lure Disney (or license the identify) in the event that they so desired. China appears about as daring as Disney would get in that regard.
Talking of which, assuming what I’ve listed are Disney’s precise parameters, that mainly simply leaves enlargement at new websites in Asia. Singapore would’ve been an fascinating choice at one level, albeit unlikely. The Disney Journey cruise ship that’s coming to Singapore would appear to be the reply there, anyway, and extra of a “right-sized” and dynamic choice.
Seoul is one other fascinating choice, and there are a selection of thriving industries that would make this location sustainable. Nonetheless, let’s not overlook the instability a mere 50 miles from the town. There’s all the time the likelihood the North Korea ‘scenario’ does get resolved within the close to future, however to the extent that Disney is snug constructing there? That appears extremely unlikely anytime within the mid-term future. Not solely that, however the demographics are dire.
Beijing is fairly removed from Shanghai, and likewise has a enough inhabitants buffer. That metropolis now has a Common theme park, which isn’t essentially outcome-determinative both manner. Orlando has each Disney and Common outposts, and it’s a lot smaller than Beijing.
Guangzhou can be an enormous metropolis and a protected distance from Shanghai, however it may be too near Hong Kong. Genuinely, there are in all probability a number of different potential candidates in China, however it appears doubtless that Disney would take a wait and see method within the close to to mid-term with additional improvement in China.
(Replace for 2025: I’d wager towards new websites in China given the deteriorating political local weather and relationship between the U.S. and Chinese language governments. I’m skeptical Disney would make the identical resolution to construct Shanghai Disneyland, within the first place, if doing issues over again proper now.)
Lastly, it must be a rustic with favorable demographics. That is considerably of an outgrowth of the above factors, besides not simply with regard to earnings. Any nation chosen for a brand new park would virtually actually should hit the candy spot of a rising center class and a youthful inhabitants.
This must be vital to Disney as a hedge, particularly as all of its present parks are positioned in international locations with ageing populations. That is most evident in Japan (albeit at parks Disney doesn’t personal), however america and each different nation the place Disney Parks presently does enterprise has the identical concern with irreversibly declining fertility charges.
For its subsequent park, Disney will doubtless selecting a rustic that gives the intersection of the above, with present stability and favorable long-term prospects for a youthful inhabitants and rising center class.
From this attitude, India might be the best choice, however I feel that’s one other one the place a wait and see method may be applicable to see how center class earnings continues to develop. Nonetheless, improvement right here throughout the subsequent 30 years is not exterior the realm of potentialities. Different international locations that seemingly examine not less than among the proper bins are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil.
I feel that’s about it. Realistically, I feel it will additionally take the native authorities providing Disney a sweetheart deal or taking a stake within the enterprise (or each), which complicates this calculus even additional. As with the Olympics, being dwelling to a Disney theme park is a legitimizing issue, and I might see different rising world cities that wish to step out onto the world stage additionally vying for a brand new Disney park. The query, in the end, is whether or not Disney could be prepared to take the gamble.
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Your Ideas
The place do you suppose Disney will construct its subsequent park? Do you suppose we’ll see a brand new fort park in our lifetimes? The place is your dream location for a Disney theme park–both near dwelling or your favourite journey vacation spot? Some other hypothesis, commentary, or questions? Listening to from you is half the enjoyable, so please share your take beneath!
