Everybody is aware of that the weeks of Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve are two of the busiest of your complete yr at Walt Disney World, with the latter being #1 by far and having 10+/10 crowd ranges. Nevertheless, they’re not #1 and #2, with the primary week really being a lot “higher” than early 2025.
This crowd report takes a glance again at wait occasions for your complete vacation season to see how unhealthy crowds have been at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. We’ll additionally take a look at wait occasions for the previous few years to place into context how a lot worse the week main as much as NYE actually is than all different weeks of the yr–and the way/why early 2025 is prone to be worse than Christmas.
One factor these crowd stories not must do is supply an extended and rambling preface to assist clarify what they do and don’t do, addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal checklist of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Fallacious About Crowds. That’s price studying in order for you a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait occasions, and some pretty simple methods to “beat” the crowds.
When it comes to crowds to date this vacation season, Walt Disney World as an entire hasn’t been too busy on a month-to-month, weekly or every day foundation. Jersey Week and Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to average territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. That little lower than every week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of your complete vacation season to date with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. That’s additionally one thing to remember for 2025, as our favourite week of the yr at Walt Disney World appears to be beginning earlier and earlier. At this level, you could possibly do a late evening flight after your loved ones feast and luxuriate in a reasonably low-crowds lengthy weekend at Walt Disney World.
As all the time, the week instantly after Thanksgiving was blissfully uncrowded. That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges, particularly as in comparison with what’s anticipated subsequent. Common wait occasions throughout everything of Walt Disney World ranged from 25 to 29 minutes throughout this 3-week stretch. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final yr (which was decrease than the earlier yr, too).
I promised that there wouldn’t be an extended preface, however there are a few essential issues to notice. An enormous one is that Walt Disney World made main modifications to its queueing insurance policies about 6 months in the past, and wait occasions haven’t been as lengthy since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this not too long ago in Right here’s Why Standby Strains and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Sooner at Walt Disney World. That’s additionally price studying, because it covers how there’s extra of a disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait occasions than anytime in the previous few years.
Throughout our Christmas-time visits to EPCOT, particularly, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. Strains for Vacation Kitchens have been prolonged. Ditto Candlelight Processional, which had the longest eating package deal line I had ever seen.
For those who have been simply strolling round having fun with the ambiance, as many company have been clearly doing, you’d’ve perceived 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait occasions, alternatively, have been completely manageable. These are the one goal measure of crowds, in order that they’re how ranges are literally assessed. And on that foundation, crowd ranges have been 4/10 to six/10 on the times we visited.
Equally, selecting the “proper” days to go to Magic Kingdom and avoiding the “unsuitable” ones makes a world of distinction throughout December. Not simply at Magic Kingdom (though undoubtedly there), but additionally each different park. For those who do MK on the best days, you’re probably avoiding the unsuitable ones…and each different park is way much less busy on these.
Past that, the vacation season is a curler coaster for crowds. Between the beginning of November and early January, there aren’t any fewer than a half-dozen holidays and breaks which have enormous impacts on crowd ranges. A few of these are apparent–the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Eve. Others, like Jersey Week, are decidedly much less so.
The superb information is that in between these holidays, there are lulls in crowds. The breaks act as crowd magnets, of types, for Walt Disney World. Individuals are much less prone to take off of labor or pull their youngsters out of college when a built-in break is simply across the nook. This makes the downtime much more pronounced, except for locals and diehard Disney followers who know in regards to the higher occasions and are in a position to go to throughout them. (That second half is vital. Lots of people have the data–far fewer can act upon it!)
That brings us to the following few weeks, that are all the time busy. Clearly, these haven’t occurred but, so all we are able to supply are predictions primarily based on previous precedent and historic wait occasions information.
Final yr, the week main as much as Christmas had a median wait time of 45 minutes, making it busier than Thanksgiving or any week of the yr since Spring Break. It’s price noting that Thanksgiving and Easter (all the time the height week of Spring Break) are not in the identical ballpark by way of crowd ranges. Thanksgiving is busy, however not Easter or Christmas busy. It’s simply that there aren’t any different really busy holidays between that lengthy stretch of the yr.
For instance, Thanksgiving week this yr peaked with a median wait time that was 18 minutes decrease than the height of Easter week (that’s an enormous unfold in averages) and the elevated crowd ranges didn’t final as lengthy. Thanksgiving “week” isn’t an precise week of heavy crowds–it’s basically 4-5 days. In contrast, the Easter spike lasts over a full week.
And this brings us to the week between Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve final yr. Final yr, that week had a median wait time of 61 minutes. Keep in mind, Christmas week was 45 minutes, which was very busy–approach worse than Thanksgiving or any week since Easter. So NYE week was 16 minutes busier than Christmas (on common), which was already a lot busier than Thanksgiving.
In the long run, final yr’s week main as much as New 12 months’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World because the identical week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is notably notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower yr than 2022. We’ve been speaking in regards to the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, nevertheless it really began final yr with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New 12 months’s Eve was the uncommon–and vital–exception to that.
Right here’s a take a look at weekly wait time developments courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:
Drilling down from weeks to particular person days, December 28-30, 2023 all set new data for the worst day of the post-reopening interval…that have been damaged by subsequent days. The averages on these days have been 68 to 70 minutes, beating the 67 minute common of December 27, 2023 that was tied on the time for the busiest day of the post-reopening interval (with December 29, 2022).
To not level out the apparent, however as of late have been all 10+/10 crowd ranges. I do know it’s stylish so as to add plusses to all the pieces as of late for no discernible motive, however there’s good motive for this one. At present, a 53 minute wait time is a 9/10 crowd stage, whereas 54 minutes is sufficient to hit the ten/10 crowd stage threshold. Nevertheless, that 70 minute common remains to be a ten/10 crowd stage, technically.
That’s a 16 minute unfold–which is totally huge–however the very same crowd stage. Nowhere else on the dimensions (besides, I assume, 1/10 because it may theoretically begin at 0 minutes–however that by no means occurs in apply) has that vary. Normally a crowd stage has a variety of some minutes earlier than it strikes up or down. Not 10/10. It may be 54 minutes, 67 minutes, 80 minutes, 330 minutes, and so on. Therefore the ten+/10 crowd stage.
The salient level is that there are various levels of ‘unhealthy’ crowds and that 10/10 isn’t a static stage of awfulness. That is additionally why followers saying it’s “apparent” that crowd ranges can be 10/10 between Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve are lacking the purpose.
Sure, it’s apparent that crowds will hit 54 minutes. However how a lot increased will they go? That is what will not be apparent, and people additional minutes could make a really massive distinction. It’s one thing you’ll be able to’t absolutely recognize except you’re there and experiencing these wait occasions.
Level being, that stretch main as much as New 12 months’s Eve final yr noticed the worst common wait occasions since at the least December 2019. That’s proper–there wasn’t a single day in 2020, 2021, or 2022 that surpassed December 27-30, 2023. That’s the 4 busiest days in 4 years! Not simply the worst 4-day stretch, both. Every of these particular person dates have been the busiest single days since 2019. It was not “apparent” that this may occur–on the contrary, pattern traces steered it wouldn’t, even amidst sure-thing 10/10 crowd ranges.
Right here’s how every day December 2023 crowds appeared so as to add a bit extra context:
Notably, lots of the dates within the first half of the month have common wait occasions of lower than half the 68-70 minute averages of the times main as much as New 12 months’s Eve. Christmas week was no slouch, however these wait occasions are downright average relative to the week that adopted.
It is a sample that performs out fairly persistently from yr to yr, and can virtually actually repeat itself in 2024, 2025, 2026, and so on. The precise numbers will change; the developments won’t. You’ll be able to all the time count on Christmas week to be busier than the few weeks earlier than it, and the week after that–and main as much as New 12 months’s Eve–to be even busier than Christmas.
Nevertheless, as steered by the title, the loopy crowds don’t finish as soon as the clock strikes midnight on New 12 months’s Eve. Right here’s a take a look at year-to-date wait occasions for 2024:
Take a look at the far left facet. The busiest 5-day stretch of 2024 stays, to this date, the primary 5 days of the yr. The times that adopted dropped off a bit, however that whole week stays tied with Easter because the #1 worst week of the year-to-date. Fall Break, Veterans Day, Jersey Week, Thanksgiving, and so on. didn’t even come near beating it.
The primary week of 2024 will probably find yourself tied for the second-worst week of the yr. Christmas most likely won’t surpass it–it hasn’t for years. New 12 months’s Eve undoubtedly will, since that’s additionally the long-running pattern.
If we’re speaking about issues which are “apparent” to Walt Disney World followers and misconceptions, right here’s one other. There’s nonetheless a reasonably widespread perception that crowd ranges plummet on New 12 months’s Day, which is believed to be “lifeless” as everyone seems to be hungover or heading house. Many followers additionally consider the times that comply with are likewise sluggish. Some followers additionally suppose there’s then a spike brought on by the Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend.
That is virtually completely unsuitable.
I assume it’s true that New 12 months’s Day begins out sluggish…for like an hour or two, and solely relative to the last few days which are completely off the charts. It is a pattern we’ve undoubtedly noticed in watching real-time posted waits. I’ve additionally performed a number of early morning New 12 months’s Days for the sake of pictures, as I used to have the ability to run on like zero sleep. The sluggish begin is a factor, nevertheless it’s a short-lived one. By noon, January 1 is busy.
Nevertheless, everybody going house and crowds letting up for a number of days is certainly not a factor. A minimum of, not anymore. Longtime Walt Disney World followers little doubt bear in mind crowd ranges plummeting in a single day from New 12 months’s Eve to Day, and the parks being ‘sleepy’ from then till the lead-up to Marathon Weekend (which was typically over a full week away). It was downright blissful, particularly in case your journey began earlier than NYE and also you have been subjected to these crowds on the entrance finish, and refreshingly empty parks through the second half.
Followers bear in mind this phenomenon as a result of a lot of them nonetheless attribute crowds in early January to the runDisney race. To make certain, that’s actually a contributing issue, however it’s not the primary driver of crowds. In the previous few years, runDisney races–throughout the board–have had a way more noticeable influence on resort occupancy than attendance or crowd ranges.
Extra considerably, this pattern has occurred with out a lot regard for Marathon Weekend. The actual drivers for heavy crowds through the first week of January are ongoing winter breaks, lifting of Annual Move blockouts, and considerably decrease costs than the earlier weeks. Even because the week main as much as NYE is off-the-charts busy, we’re listening to anecdotal stories of budget-conscious vacationers shifting their visits to the next week.
Our robust suspicion is that the largest drivers are Central Florida’s rising inhabitants and extra locals with Annual Passes which are topic to blockout dates across the peak weeks of Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve. Though there’s nonetheless a giant hole, Walt Disney World’s visitor demographics are resembling Disneyland extra with every passing yr.
Floridians now have an outsized influence on crowds, which wasn’t all the time the case. Once we first began doing this, it was higher to observe college calendars from main districts within the Midwest and Northeast. Now, the timing of the largest and closest districts in Florida is a greater predictor of crowds than different states. (That’s not as seen right here, as most districts across the nation all have this day off–nevertheless it’s apparent when you’re taking a look at Spring Breaks, which will be very totally different.)
Trying ahead to early 2025, most native college districts–together with Orange County–don’t return into session till January 7, 2025. Because of this Monday may nonetheless be busy as a little bit of a final hurrah, however that additionally requires dad and mom having that time off work, and most won’t.
As such, our expectation is that January 1-5, 2025 could be very busy, January 6 sees elevated crowds, and there’s a drop-off beginning January 7, 2025. We’d additional predict that this 7-day stretch would be the busiest at Walt Disney World till Easter (surpassing the favored Presidents Day/Winter Break), and sure till subsequent New 12 months’s Eve.
Talking of Presidents Day and Winter Break, there’s an affordable likelihood that week in Winter 2025 is busier than this yr’s Christmas week. That was the case this yr (in comparison with the prior Christmas), albeit solely by 1 minute. It’ll be a detailed name once more, particularly because it doesn’t coincide with Mardi Gras. The distinction is that “everybody” expects Christmas week to be busy, whereas Winter Break catches folks without warning.
The Walt Disney World Marathon occuring January 8-12, 2025 ought to make the prediction in regards to the first week of January and its causes pretty simple to determine. (Since marathon crowds will largely happen the second week of January 2025.)
We nonetheless count on marathon week to be above-average, however we’re extraordinarily assured within the prediction that it gained’t be as unhealthy as the primary 7 days of 2025. Or, for that matter, a lot worse than a median week in Winter 2025. No matter crowd ranges these two weeks really find yourself being ought to pretty properly settle the “trigger” of them.
(For no matter it’s price, my theories as to why runDisney isn’t as impactful to crowd ranges are that fewer out-of-state runDisney members are nonetheless Annual Passholders as a result of rising prices, runners are slicing journeys quick as a result of rising journey prices, and fewer are buying multi-day tickets (additionally as a result of rising prices). Anecdotal reader suggestions appeared to counsel some or all of this was true, however clearly, it’s nonetheless only a idea.)
Past this, it’s additionally secure to foretell that Winter 2025 can be busy at Walt Disney World due to gentle climate inflicting extra deferred visits, a fan-favorite seasonal occasion, and multi-year developments on this course. See Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World for extra.
I wouldn’t count on wait occasions or crowd ranges in January by way of early March 2025 to be up year-over-year, given the decrease waits that we’ve usually seen within the final 6 months plus postponed visits as theme park followers await Epic Universe. However that doesn’t actually matter except you’re a statistician.
Notion is actuality, and Walt Disney World company are nonetheless shocked by winter crowds, interval, regardless of this sample rising in 2017. It takes standard WDW knowledge some time to catch as much as actuality, which is why so many continued declaring October the low season lengthy after that ceased being true or why some followers nonetheless consider the parks are lifeless post-NYE. Crowds this winter can be extra adequate that individuals understand them as being worse than their very own expectations.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you ever visited Walt Disney World for Christmas, New 12 months’s Eve, or through the first week in January in the previous few years? What was your expertise? Ideas on our evaluation for these weeks? Do you agree or disagree with the group predictions or rationales? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
