After a number of bought out days to finish the 12 months, Genie+ has continued that pattern in 2024. Lightning Lane costs are bouncing round for Park Hopping, Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, EPCOT, and Animal Kingdom as Genie+ sells out. This put up covers all of that together with a dialog about why crowds are nonetheless so unhealthy.
For starters, let’s discuss crowds. We’ve closed the ebook on final 12 months, so we’re not going to rehash that. In the event you haven’t, it’s value studying Walt Disney World’s Busiest Week of the Yr By Far for a dialogue of Christmas to New Yr’s Eve, the way it contained the 4 worst days within the final 4 years and was, towards all odds, a lot busier than anticipated. A few of you could assume final week’s crowds have been “apparent,” however they very a lot weren’t. Not less than, to not the diploma of the madness.
The actually ironic factor is that this week’s colossal crowds really are apparent! We’ve heard from some Walt Disney World followers who’ve been shocked by the excessive wait occasions and ongoing heavy attendance, and there’s been a number of hypothesis on social media as to the trigger. For our half, we’ve been warning about this on our crowd calendars for the final a number of years–this week even made our listing of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 & 2025. (Spoiler alert: it wasn’t on the perfect aspect!)
For these holding rating at residence, wait occasions are down year-over-year for all days in the course of the first week of January 2024. Final 12 months up thus far, January 2-4 had a mean wait time (throughout the whole thing of Walt Disney World) of 60-64 minutes. That first week of January ended up being tied for the second busiest week with Easter, and behind solely Christmas to New Yr’s Eve.
January 2-4, 2024 has common every day wait occasions of 55-58 minutes. (January 1 is under that in each years–it at all times is–however was considerably slower this 12 months.) These are all nonetheless 10/10 crowd ranges, for what it’s value. The present week might not be high 3, nevertheless it’ll undoubtedly be one of many 10 worst weeks of the 12 months when all is claimed and finished.
So it’s not like January 2024 is something remotely resembling “gradual” in absolute phrases. It’s simply slower (relative) than the identical dates final 12 months, which was to be anticipated given normal developments since then. It’s considerably stunning, although, as a result of final week (between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve) outperformed.
Longtime followers little question keep in mind crowd ranges plummeting in a single day from New Yr’s Eve to Day, and the parks being ‘sleepy’ from then till the lead-up to Marathon Weekend (which was generally over a full week away). It was downright blissful, particularly in case your journey began earlier than NYE and also you have been subjected to these crowds on the entrance finish, and refreshingly empty parks in the course of the second half.
Followers “little question” keep in mind this phenomenon as a result of lots of them nonetheless attribute crowds in early January 2024 to the runDisney race. To make certain, that’s definitely a contributing issue, however it isn’t the principle driver of crowds. We’re assured on this evaluation as a result of the noticed crowd ranges this week–stunning as they’re to some longtime followers–really are usually not a brand new improvement.
Extra considerably, this pattern has occurred with out a lot regard for Marathon Weekend. The true drivers for heavy crowds in the course of the first week of January are winter break (particularly for Central Florida faculties) and lifting of Annual Move blockouts. We first observed this occurring in 2019 and it received even worse in early 2020.
Granted, January 2020 was the primary full month of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance–and Disney’s Hollywood Studios was an absolute nightmare in consequence–however the crowds have been unhealthy in all places. It appears like historic historical past now, however I keep in mind being shocked by the morning crowds at EPCOT and Magic Kingdom, too.
(I nonetheless imagine 2020 would’ve been a blockbuster 12 months had the closure not occurred, and a number of what we name pent-up demand now’s higher categorized simply as increased demand, a brand new regular that may’ve hit because the final improvement cycle ended, regardless. However I digress.)
As for the primary week of January crowds, our sturdy suspicion has been that Central Florida’s rising inhabitants and extra locals with Annual Passes which are topic to blockout dates across the peak weeks of Christmas and New Yr’s Eve are the massive drivers. Though there’s nonetheless an enormous hole, Walt Disney World’s visitor demographics are resembling Disneyland extra with every passing 12 months.
This has been corroborated to at the very least a point by runDisney races not having as significant of an influence on park attendance since returning as they did up to now. We first actually observed this with Marathon Weekend final 12 months, when crowds dropped on that Saturday after which plummeted on the Sunday of the principle occasion. Most different runDisney occasions that didn’t coincide with different holidays/breaks have been an analogous story.
In making an attempt to elucidate this pattern final 12 months, my theories have been that fewer out-of-state runDisney individuals have been nonetheless Annual Passholders because of suspended gross sales (on the time) and rising prices, runners have been reducing journeys quick because of rising journey prices, and fewer have been buying multi-day tickets (additionally because of rising prices). Anecdotal reader suggestions appeared to recommend some or all of this was true, however clearly, it’s nonetheless only a concept.
Regardless, our expectation is that Walt Disney World crowds peak at the moment or tomorrow (January 5, 2024) after which start trending down on Saturday and actually drop off on Sunday, January 7, 2024. It wouldn’t be stunning if there’s a slight spike on Monday because of day of week developments and nothing else, earlier than falling once more on January 9, 2024.
That ought to roughly mark the unofficial begin of the winter low season. Effectively, to the extent there’s nonetheless such a factor. It’s actually much less an off-season and extra an off-weeks in between extra holidays and breaks, however that doesn’t have fairly the identical ring to it!
In the event you go on January 9, be warned that you just’ll be subjected to a bunch of “Folks from the Web” who’re documenting the entire modifications taking impact that day. (Decrease crowds beginning then is exactly why they’re taking impact that day, for what it’s value!) There are only some hundred of us, so we don’t materially influence the crowds, however we’re so annoying that generally we really feel like a small military. Sorta just like the distinction between crowd ranges as measured by wait occasions versus “appears like” congestion!
As famous above, Genie+ has already bought out on a number of events this week. Listed here are the dates and parks:
- January 2, 2024: Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios & Multi-Park
- January 3, 2024: Magic Kingdom & Multi-Park
- January 4, 2024: Disney’s Hollywood Studios & Multi-Park
I might count on tomorrow to be the ultimate day of (potential) Genie+ promote outs till (possibly) Mardi Gras or Presidents’ Day.
Listed here are the costs for Genie+ at Walt Disney World for January 4, 2024:
- A number of Parks (legitimate with Park Hopper tickets): $29
- Magic Kingdom: $29
- Disney’s Hollywood Studios: $26
- EPCOT: $21
- Animal Kingdom: $18
Though 2024 is barely 4 days outdated at this level, Genie+ costs have been in all places. Not solely don’t have any two days had precisely the identical value factors, however I’m additionally fairly positive that at the very least 3 days have had a mixture of costs by no means seen earlier than.
The charitable amongst you’ll most likely say that that is Walt Disney World being savvy, making an attempt to check new pricing to search out the candy spot of provide and demand. The extra cynical may level to that as proof that Walt Disney World doesn’t really know what they’re doing, and isn’t so nice at forecasting demand or attendance.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider Genie+ persevering with to promote out in early 2024? What in regards to the excessive crowd ranges to this point for the primary a number of days of January 2024? Did this catch you without warning, or have you ever skilled these post-NYE crowds up to now? Another crowd concerns we didn’t keep in mind or particulars we missed/received improper? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
