Walt Disney World has made main modifications to queueing during the last 6 months. This publish combines wait occasions knowledge for standby strains and stats for Lightning Lane availability with our personal anecdotal experiences with each plus ‘appears like’ crowds each single month since June to color an image of how issues have modified within the second half of 2024.
Let’s begin with crowd ranges as measured by wait occasions knowledge. Suffice to say, it’s been a down 12 months for Walt Disney World with a gradual lower in month-to-month crowd ranges between February and October. In a standard 12 months, there can be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which a summer time uptrend.
As a substitute, this 12 months noticed a sluggish and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! It was a sluggish summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as we mentioned at size in Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World.
Unsurprisingly, August continued that pattern and September accelerated it. That a lot is to be anticipated–these two months being the slowest of the 12 months occurs each 12 months. On this case, there was an 8-week stretch in there that was the slowest since 2021, although. So even quieter than regular.
In a standard 12 months, October would buck that pattern in a giant approach. Not your complete month, however fall breaks and the second half of the month would have a adequate affect to make October the busiest month since spring break season. This 12 months, October did see an uptrend–breaking the multi-month downtrend–however barely. A giant a part of that may be chalked as much as hurricanes, although, and Disney itself indicated the storms price them $130 million in cancellations.
November was up as in comparison with October, which can also be typical–nevertheless it noticed an even bigger bounce, doubtless as a result of aforementioned hurricanes miserable attendance in October. Nevertheless, November nonetheless fell wanting what’s regular for the month. And though December simply started, the sensible cash can be on it being the busiest month of 2024. Not due to the following couple of weeks, however as a result of the ultimate two will likely be so excessive above the remainder of the 12 months that they’ll elevate all of December.
It’s price noting that each one of that is wait time traits inside 2024.
We often do year-over-year comparisons, which means we’d consider November 2024 vs. November 2023 (and many others.) as a result of it’s the extra significant comparability that accounts for the seasonality of attendance traits. When doing that, each month besides February and March have been down year-over-year, and people two have been inside 1 minute of the prior-year. All different months have been down, some significantly so.
Additionally price noting is that 2023 was largely down as in comparison with 2022, which was the peak of pent-up demand. This has been acknowledged by the corporate itself throughout earnings calls, so it’s not likely in dispute. In reality, Disney CEO Bob Iger has extra of much less mentioned as a lot and warned traders of attendance softness and demand moderation via 2025.
Beforehand, the corporate cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney World final 12 months, too, attributing this to the top of revenge journey, lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and poor climate. With that mentioned, the corporate isn’t saying there’s been an enormous drop in attendance. On the contrary, the latest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely. The wait occasions present a steeper drop.
The wait occasions knowledge is what it’s, and I don’t actually assume it’s up for debate. Opposite to some anecdotal studies, you’re nearly sure to come across decrease wait occasions this 12 months versus 2023, to not point out as contrasted with 2022.
However as we frequently level out, crowd ranges as decided by wait occasions (an imperfect measure, however the one worthwhile one) usually are not the identical as ‘appears like’ crowds or congestion, that are extra akin to attendance (nonetheless imperfect, however nearer). In a variety of instances, wait occasions don’t inform the complete story. That’s true yearly. We predict that’s extra so the case in late 2024 than ever.
What if the modifications to queueing insurance policies have brought on decrease wait occasions which are disproportionate with the lower in attendance? That crowds have solely dropped dramatically year-over-year if utilizing wait occasions as their measure?
My principle is that precisely this has occurred.
This could be completely in line with Disney’s quarterly studies, which have (generally) talked about declines in attendance and resort occupancy, however not almost to the diploma of wait occasions.
The corporate’s monetary studies are, as anticipated, about metrics corresponding to earnings and per visitor spending–not wait occasions. If attendance have been down in comparable measure with wait occasions, we’d count on near double-digit drops. That the majority definitely has not occurred.
Which means there has nearly essentially been a divergence between posted wait occasions and appears like crowds. Attendance can’t have dropped by as a lot as wait occasions recommend. If it had, the Home Parks & Experiences would doubtless mirror that in its income and working earnings.
As a substitute, Disney Experiences simply posted file income and working earnings for the complete 12 months–which means it outperformed even the banner 12 months of pent-up demand (no less than financially).
This roughly comports with my anecdotal observations about Walt Disney World crowds. I’ve spent about 5-7 days every month within the parks since June, which clearly means I’m not seeing daily at each park. Even when I have been, it’s inconceivable to be in all places without delay, and congestion could be extremely variable.
However, my perspective (and once more, this can be a sweeping generalization) is that the parks usually are not as busy as they have been in 2022 and largely down as in comparison with final 12 months, however not almost as sluggish because the wait occasions recommend. If I needed to estimate crowd ranges primarily based purely on what I noticed and felt–and didn’t take a look at a single posted wait time–I might fairly persistently be overshooting by 2-4 crowd ranges.
Actually, I can’t consider a single day I’ve visited within the second half of the 12 months that I perceived as much less busy than the group ranges as dictated by wait occasions. It’s nearly all the time been the precise reverse. There have been lots of 1/10 to three/10 dates that I might’ve guessed have been nearer to five/10 primarily based on merely strolling across the parks. However wait occasions instructed a really completely different story.
To that time, my expertise with standby strains since June has been a breeze. Posted wait occasions have been manageable, they’re often inflated, and the strains are constantly-moving. After all, I’m largely not doing rides at peak hours when waits are the worst, however I did do TRON Lightcycle Run experience testing in any respect hours over a vacation weekend and didn’t as soon as wait even 60 minutes for it. (Posted wait occasions ranged from 35 to 120 minutes.)
In reality, my longest waits of your complete 12 months have been for…Tiana’s Bayou Journey. A experience that has a digital queue. However that’s as a result of it breaking down repeatedly, and my knack for in some way managing to queue up simply earlier than that occurs. That’s actually past the scope of this publish, however I however discover it amusing that I’ve waited in line essentially the most for an attraction that…isn’t imagined to have a line.
One factor to bear in mind right here is that low crowds doesn’t imply that each attraction is a walk-on. Individuals generally hear 1/10 or 2/10 crowd ranges and assume that’ll be the case. As a substitute, it means you would possibly encounter a 65-75 minute common wait time for the preferred rides, versus 90-120 minute wait occasions. Since these numbers are averages, it additionally means larger peaks and decrease lows.
So what’s inflicting these disproportionately decrease wait occasions?
My robust perception is that the secret is a decrease utilization fee of the Lightning Lanes. Which means fewer visitors are skipping the road, and are as an alternative within the common line (or doing one thing else completely). This could clarify why the standby strains are transferring extra fluidly and why wait occasions are decrease–as a result of fewer visitors are within the Lightning Lanes and processing that backlog isn’t inflicting standby to return to a standstill.
Beforehand, normal working process known as for a roughly 4:1 or 80:20 ratio of Lightning Lane to standby visitors on the the attraction’s merge level. That means that for each one particular person admitted into the load space (or wherever merge happens) via the common queue, 4 persons are pulled from the Lightning Lane line. This was the baseline–the ratio solely will get much less favorable for the standby line!
Anecdotally, my expertise whereas within the standby strains is unquestionably not that 4 persons are being pulled from the Lightning Lane for each one visitor from the standby line. I’m not on the market counting the folks passing, however I wouldn’t be in the least shocked if the numbers skewed barely in favor of standby. It’s definitely nothing like the ten:1 ratio in favor of Lightning Lanes that may occur throughout peak occasions.
Since I’m doing technique discipline testing as a part of solo analysis journeys, I’m often standing in line on my own. And since I apparently wish to torture myself, I’ve developed a behavior of watching the Lightning Lane visitor move to get an concept of how and when the standby line will transfer. Previously, this has been needlessly anxiousness inducing. Undoubtedly not beneficial, because it’s no enjoyable to see a gentle stream of individuals passing as you stand nonetheless.
That hasn’t been the case within the final 6 months. I’ve observed it on a number of completely different sights, however the place it was most pronounced was, once more, throughout my TRON Lightcycle Run testing. I used to be truthfully shocked that, regardless of Lightning Lane Single Cross being completely offered out, the standby line was manageable and transferring. I had skilled a lot, a lot worse when TRON was utilizing a digital queue final 12 months.
It’s not simply TRON, both. There are a number of different sights that used to repeatedly use overflow queues for the Lightning Lanes. There have been occasions when Peter Pan’s Flight would again up previous PhilharMagic, Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice would have a number of switchbacks (by way of tape on the bottom), House Mountain had a line out to the TTA monitor, and many others.
This will nonetheless occur from time-to-time, particularly on peak days or after rides return from extreme downtime. But it surely was beforehand occurring with regularity, even on low season days final September or reasonable days this winter. I haven’t seen Lightning Lanes that persistently backed up within the final 6 months.
(Observe that this solely applies to Walt Disney World. This downside nonetheless happens at Disneyland with a point of regularity. I don’t assume it’s fairly as unhealthy as earlier than, nevertheless it’s nothing just like the night-and-day distinction at Walt Disney World.)
To that time, the reason for that is not Lightning Lane Multi-Cross or Single Cross being considerably much less fashionable than their predecessors. On the contrary, Lightning Lane Single Cross is promoting out way more typically than Particular person Lightning Lanes did, even in low to reasonable crowd ranges.
The doubtless causes for this are past the scope of this publish, nevertheless it’s one thing we handle at size in Lightning Lane Single Cross is Promoting Out FAST! The circumstances haven’t actually modified since that publish was printed. The title there actually says all of it, however suffice to say, a number of of those LLSPs are actually totally booked up upfront or have restricted same-day availability.
We’ve seen one thing related with larger demand and extra restricted stock for Lightning Lane Multi-Cross. That was coated in What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Cross Availability at Walt Disney World? The circumstances have modified since that publish was printed, as LLMPs have gotten simpler to guide–however nonetheless extra aggressive than Genie+ Lightning Lanes.
Our preliminary rationalization for this within the days that adopted the launch of Lightning Lane Multi-Cross and Single Cross was throttled availability. That made sense initially, as the brand new system was model new and Disney was not sure of what to anticipate, so that they doubtless needed to slowly open the valve on Lightning Lane stock.
Within the months which have adopted, this appears to have modified. Whereas it stays true that there could be restricted availability–particularly for Single Cross–it’s not as unhealthy as earlier than. Furthermore, our experiences in testing Lightning Lane Multi-Cross have demonstrated that same-day availability (or experience reservation refills) is pretty strong.
At this level, it looks as if demand is pretty robust for Lightning Lanes, but in addition that Walt Disney World is doing a reasonably good job of assembly this. As for why demand would stay strong, our greatest rationalization is heightened FOMO and FUD–two of my favourite “facronyms.”
Since visitors are not shopping for Lightning Lanes same-day, it’s harder to evaluate the necessity for them and modify accordingly throughout your trip. As such, there’s doubtless a bent to “over-purchase” Lightning Lanes as in comparison with underneath the previous system. (One other topic that’s past the scope of this publish, nevertheless it’s price studying our latest publish: When You Ought to Skip Lightning Lane Multi-Cross.)
As we’ve additionally famous, Lightning Lane Premier Cross additionally hasn’t actually moved the needle on utilization.
This was to be anticipated, because the target market for LLPP is exceedingly restricted. It’s my understanding that fewer than 1% of visitors have been buying Lightning Lane Premier Cross on the overwhelming majority of days. That’ll be larger round Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve when crowds are larger, particularly at Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios, nevertheless it’s nonetheless unlikely to eclipse 2% of all visitors.
That is exactly why Walt Disney World expanded eligibility for Lightning Lane Premier Cross. Not solely is it being utilized by a really low proportion of visitors, however they’ve the surplus bandwidth within the Lightning Lanes to open it as much as extra visitors with out the system even coming near its breaking level. The underside line is that Walt Disney World has expanded its paid line-skipping techniques they usually’re nonetheless performing much better than earlier than. How will we make sense of that?
The elephant within the room is that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to scale back abuse and misuse is what’s having the most important affect on each wait occasions and decreased utilization of Lightning Lanes. I hesitate to even broach this matter because it has actual human penalties and has been heartbreaking to learn the tales of DAS denials.
Nevertheless, it’s all however sure that the DAS overhaul isn’t only a contributing issue, however is the first purpose for shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, so it makes full sense. Every thing we had heard even previous to the overhaul announcement instructed DAS utilization had exploded and was the first reason for utilization of Lightning Lanes, not paid gross sales.
As we’ve mentioned repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum recreation. This isn’t even theoretical–Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled visitors prior to now, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony (see A.L. vs. Walt Disney Parks & Resorts, US). A check research throughout that exposed that DAS customers skilled, on common, 45% extra sights than these with out DAS.
Understand that this research would’ve been carried out a number of years in the past, underneath the previous free FastPass+ system and previous to the explosion of TikTok and Fb teams that inspired and facilitated abuse. It stands to purpose that visitors who’re truly disabled and want DAS are in a position to expertise fewer (most likely far fewer) sights than fraudsters who recreation the system to basically create a free FastPass exploit.
After all, this additionally comes on the expense of disabled visitors who want DAS to be able to get pleasure from Walt Disney World and are being unfairly denied as a part of the crackdown. Whereas it’s good to see the abusers being denied, there’s additionally collateral harm to this. Many visitors who’re truly disabled have been swept up within the crackdown–it’s unlucky there’s no technique to narrowly goal the abusers. I gained’t faux to know what the “excellent” answer is–however I do know that the established order is devastating, and that Disney can and will do higher.
Nevertheless, that’s additionally past the scope of this publish. That is about shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization regardless of demand staying robust. And given the entire above, I have no idea easy methods to reconcile all of that with out attributing it to the DAS overhaul. There are undoubtedly different contributing components (shifting demographics, parks persevering with to revive misplaced capability, and many others), however the major driver is undoubtedly DAS.
In the end, that’s our principle as to why standby strains are shorter and sooner transferring on the similar time that Lightning Lane utilization has decreased, even with demand for Multi-Cross and Single Cross showing pretty robust and experience reservation stock being wholesome. This strikes us as the one believable conclusion primarily based Disney’s quarterly outcomes, wait occasions knowledge, and our in depth anecdotal experiences.
As we’ve talked about earlier than, there was an inside need inside Walt Disney World to raised stability the pursuits of visitors utilizing standby strains and Lightning Lanes, and that seems to have been completed. However once more, we’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge that this occurred with disabled visitors because the collateral harm. It’s saddening that this has occurred, and we nonetheless consider Walt Disney World may narrowly tailor the system in a approach that targets abusers (who have been a big variety of customers).
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YOUR THOUGHTS
When you’ve visited Walt Disney World within the final 6 months, what’s been your expertise with standby strains, Lightning Lanes, and the move of visitors in each versus earlier visits? How about as in contrast with in-park congestion? Have you ever observed any discernible variations? Would you suggest LLMP or simply advise sticking to standby given these traits? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
