Within the newest of what you may anticipate might be a protracted line of Walt Disney World vs. Common Orlando information for the following few years, final 12 months’s attendance statistics have been launched by the Themed Leisure Affiliation. This seems to be on the winners and losers within the first regular 12 months since 2019, with commentary about modifications and traits for each Central Florida theme park heavyweights and past.
For starters, the 2023 International Sights Attendance Report is a collaboration of the Themed Leisure Affiliation (TEA) and the economics apply at AECOM. Prime worldwide theme parks, amusement parks, water parks, museums, and theme park operators are named, ranked by attendance, and trade traits are recognized. The International Sights Attendance Report is taken into account the gold customary throughout the theme park trade, and TEA is extremely credible.
Nonetheless, this report does include asterisks. Common Orlando and Walt Disney World don’t launch attendance statistics as a part of their earnings or annual reporting. There’s a complete ‘methodology’ part beginning on web page 83 of the report, which states that numbers are obtained “by means of quite a lot of sources, together with statistics furnished immediately by the operators, historic numbers, monetary studies, the funding banking group, native tourism organizations, {and professional} estimates the place vital.”
The report goes on to elucidate why most theme park operators voluntarily present statistics to TEA, and addresses skepticism about inflating or in any other case manipulating statistics. There has lengthy been fan cynicism about each Common Orlando and Walt Disney World doing exactly this through the years.
Nonetheless, we doubt that’s occurring right here for quite a few causes (additionally defined beginning on web page 83). The report factors out that misreporting or over-reporting creates issues for the operators in each the lengthy and quick time period. “Within the close to time period, if attendance is up however revenues or profitability aren’t, it raises questions. In the long run, finally, they’ll hit some extent the place the numbers are too far off to be credible.”
That is utterly correct. Anybody who listens to Disney earnings calls is aware of that the important thing metric with which the corporate is outright obsessed is per capita or guesting spending. That issues way more to Wall Avenue than attendance, therefore Disney’s previous notorious assertion about an “unfavorable attendance combine.” You realize what decreases per capita spending? Mendacity about larger attendance!
For that and plenty of different causes, we imagine that numbers for each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando are correct. They have been appropriate final 12 months when the outcomes have been higher for Common, and proper this 12 months when extra favorable for Disney. When you solely imagine the outcomes once they let you know what you need to hear, that claims extra about you than the report.
Once more, the Themed Leisure Affiliation is the gold customary. Each Disney and Common are top-tier sponsors of TEA and publicly rejoice annual accolades they obtain from the group. There’s a near-certainty that each Disney and Common present TEA with correct annual attendance statistics. However in case you nonetheless disagree with the accuracy of this checklist for no matter purpose, maybe this publish isn’t for you!
With that preface out of the way in which, right here’s a have a look at the Prime 25 Theme Parks Worldwide:
It is likely to be stating the apparent, however the regional share modifications are largely pushed by the surroundings in 2022. The biggest jumps in year-over-year figures got here out of parks in Asia, which had probably the most restrictive working environments previous to 2023. That’s why the proportion will increase are so excessive for Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland, Common Studios Beijing–and to a lesser extent, the Disney and Common theme parks in Japan.
The place the respective parks have been within the cycle of pent-up demand issues lots–have been they nonetheless using the wave, or had it receded? It is a huge a part of why the Central Florida theme parks are principally underperforming relative to the remainder of the world. They reopened earlier and noticed the majority of their ‘revenge journey’ in 2022.
That created an unfavorable comparability, and made overperformance in 2023 tough, even with Walt Disney World and different operators pulling numerous “levers” to entice friends to return. Nonetheless, initiatives like higher discounting, return of Annual Passes, particular occasions, and the opening of latest sights are all examples of how among the Orlando parks managed to eek out beneficial properties.
To that time, let’s slender these numbers to North America, right here’s the Prime 20:
Magic Kingdom remained prime canine of theme parks—not simply #1 at Walt Disney World, however in all the world. Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless down as in comparison with 2019, when the park reached a staggering 20.96 million friends. That continues to be the excessive water mark for attendance, and it in all probability received’t be reached once more till Vehicles land opens in 2029.
EPCOT is leapfrogged Hollywood Studios to reclaim the #2 spot of Walt Disney World parks, with a large 19.8% attendance enhance. That was doubtless fueled by the primary full 12 months of Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind, together with partial years of different additions, building winding down, and an extended pageant season.
With building now totally completed, it’ll be fascinating to see whether or not EPCOT sees a year-over-year enhance in 2024. I’d wager towards it. My sturdy suspicion is that Walt Disney World massively miscalculated by not providing a summer season pageant, and the opening of CommuniCore did nothing to drive visitation. Nonetheless, even principally flat attendance ought to maintain EPCOT within the #2 spot. And that proper there explains why the park solely bought one D23 Expo announcement–a brand new lounge.
In the meantime, Disney’s Hollywood Studios dropped by 5.5% and Animal Kingdom was down by 2.8%. It’s no coincidence that these are the 2 parks furthest faraway from main additions—DHS particularly noticed greater bumps the final two years, which means harder comparisons.
Animal Kingdom is simply flailing. After peaking at almost 14 million friends in 2019, the park has been dropping since, and there’s a not-insignificant likelihood it’ll fall to half that quantity within the first full 12 months (2026) that Epic Universe is open. Which means we received’t see the complete fruits or penalties of Epic Universe (relying upon your perspective) till this time in 2027, when the 2026 report is launched.
I’m truthfully stunned that Disney isn’t performing with a higher sense of urgency. Remember the fact that these numbers aren’t “information” to Walt Disney World–they’d’ve seen these traits emerge over 12 months in the past. As we’ve been saying for some time, Animal Kingdom is in pressing want of assist and its enlargement ought to’ve opened by now.
As a substitute, building will lastly get began in 2025. Frankly, I don’t understand how DAK can get away with nothing to drive attendance between every now and then. Zootopia: Higher Zoogether isn’t going to do the trick–they want a drone present. Most likely extra.
As famous above, attendance is down just about throughout the board as in comparison with the 2019 report. EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are the 2 parks that come the closest, but it surely doesn’t seem to be both will surpass these excessive water marks anytime quickly. Particularly not with no additions this 12 months and Epic Universe on the horizon subsequent.
It looks like Walt Disney World is okay with this. Not less than, for probably the most half. As we famous above, per visitor spending is the corporate’s key metric they usually’ve achieved enviable outcomes there. However they’ve additionally supplied extra reductions over the past 18 months. A few of these, like Free Eating, truly do enhance per visitor spending. Others, like the present ticket offers, don’t.
Our place for some time has been that Disney Doesn’t Need Decrease Crowds. The title of the publish ought to give away our conclusion, however there’s actually extra nuance to it than that. In actuality, the corporate desires to have its cake and eat it too: the intersection of upper visitor spending and larger attendance. Which means that if per visitor spending stats might be maximized concurrently Magic Kingdom breaking the 20 million barrier, Disney would completely take each. That isn’t fairly doable, so that they goal to string the needle and steadiness these wishes.
Then there’s Common Orlando. Islands of Journey was down 9.3% to 10 million friends whereas Common Studios Florida additionally fell 9.3% to 9.75 million friends.
Common apologists are prone to hand wave this away, saying that followers have been suspending journeys till Epic Universe. We’re skeptical of that. Whereas it’s completely true that folks postpone journeys for brand new choices, this normally happens within the months main as much as openings, not the years. It’s very tough to think about the typical visitor in January 2023 opting to place off a go to for one more 2+ years. That simply was not occurring at any significant scale. It isn’t how most of the people operates.
And actually, Comcast has not even made that declare on latest earnings calls to excuse worsening outcomes. On the contrary, they’ve attributed their (documented) slowdown on pent-up demand for different journey choices together with cruises and worldwide tourism, the power of the greenback, and normalization post-pent-up demand.
Common executives additionally conceded their decrease attendance to a lull in new attraction choices: “We haven’t launched a serious new attraction in Orlando since VelociCoaster in 2021, in anticipation of Epic Universe,” defined Jason Armstrong, Comcast’s CFO throughout a latest earnings name.
For its half, the report attributes a “giant half” of Orlando’s underperformance (relative to world numbers) to worldwide journey that has nonetheless not returned to pre-pandemic ranges. In addition they level to the relative power of the U.S. greenback, which makes inbound worldwide journey a lot much less engaging. In line with the report, Orlando operators additionally cited a lower in group journey as a key purpose for decrease numbers.
Though efficiency elsewhere within the U.S. was steady or up, the load Florida has on the entire North American market pulled common numbers down, leading to little or no internet progress for all the North American area. Nonetheless, Orlando stays a robust major hub of the trade.
There could also be a lull, however the social gathering is way from over, based on the Themed Leisure Affiliation. They level out that Disney has pledged $60 billion for world funding over the following decade, seeking to “turbocharge” Disney Experiences. SeaWorld Orlando can also be persevering with the multi-year investments in its property, together with new curler coasters, water slides and extra. Lastly, Common’s huge funding in Epic Universe, scheduled to open in 2025, will create main buzz for the market.
Turning to commentary, we’ll try and reply the apparent query: what do these numbers imply?
“There are three sorts of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” That could be very a lot apt right here, and underscores the purpose that you could possibly draw quite a lot of conclusions from these numbers relying upon the place your theme park allegiances lie. Some Disney diehards may spotlight the general efficiency relative to its crosstown competitor, whereas Common acolytes will undoubtedly level to Epic Universe.
Actually, I feel each are truthful, albeit not for the explanations followers assume. Walt Disney World has opened way more since 2021 than Common Orlando. Followers appear to assume it’s not sufficient for no matter purpose, however within the eyes of most of the people, there’s been lots–and it has carried out nicely.
Not solely that, however Common overperformed previous to this, having already gone all out to draw Annual Passholders and entice different guests. That resulted in a blockbuster 2022 for Common, with these parks returning to actuality final 12 months. In contrast, Walt Disney World was simply lastly beginning to “pull levers” (in Disney parlance) to lure again locals and followers final 12 months.
So for Walt Disney World to solely file these ends in a 12 months when it had extra new choices and was enterprise initiatives to spice up attendance…that’s not nice. Particularly if you account for the truth that Disney had no main attraction openings after this, and received’t till 2027.
Walt Disney World might be reliant on celebrations, promotions, and leisure to drive attendance within the subsequent few years. That would work! The brand new Disney Starlight nighttime parade might be a serious draw for followers in 2025, but it surely’ll doubtless take greater than that to incentivize most of the people (at scale) to guide holidays. It’ll be fascinating to see what else Disney has up its sleeve for the following couple of years, and whether or not that’s sufficient to forestall erosion of market share to Common.
Conversely, Common is down due to Epic Universe–however not by advantage of friends delaying journeys. It’s as a result of that has been the first focus of funding for Comcast, so there was nothing main since 2021 when VelociCoaster opened. (Which means they, themselves aren’t counting the Minions and DreamWorks stuff.)
The draw back of that is that 2024 might be going to be one other tough 12 months with extra decreases for Common Orlando. The upside is that Comcast might be completely high quality with this, and it creates a juicy comparability that’ll be simple to blow out of the water as soon as Epic Universe opens.
It’ll be fascinating to see how attendance fares at Common Studios Florida and Islands of Journey as soon as Epic Universe opens. Traditionally, new gates have come on the quick time period expense of current ones–however Common is seemingly intent on bundling Epic Universe entry into multi-day packages that “pressure” friends to go to the legacy parks. It’s a daring technique–we’ll see if it pays off for them.
In brief, success for Central Florida theme parks is fairly easy: in case you construct it, they’ll come.
Time and time once more, the TEA numbers have borne this out. Animal Kingdom noticed an identical explosion post-Pandora, whereas Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Story Land have been huge for Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Final 12 months’s numbers for EPCOT inform an identical story, with the park lastly benefitting from Cosmic Rewind and the additions that got here earlier than it. In the meantime, Magic Kingdom noticed a modest increase from TRON Lightcycle Run.
Equally as necessary, the TEA report exhibits the reverse: when parks go too lengthy between opening new sights, their attendance suffers. If you would like one “narrative” to remove from these attendance statistics, that needs to be it! For one factor, it’s true. For an additional, it’s the narrative that advantages us all and places us all on the identical “aspect” somewhat than the limitless Common vs. Disney discourse that makes us all sound like bizarre cultists. Most significantly, it’s the attitude that encourages theme parks to take a position extra money into enlargement and opening new sights.
Clearly, there are macroeconomic and different externalities that impression attendance. With that stated, the largest ‘lesson’ to be realized is that constructing cool new stuff will increase attendance. It’s loopy that that is even a lesson, because it appears patently apparent. However Disney and different operators have performed video games through the years, making an attempt to extract larger spending or optimize with out including something new.
Fortunately, it seems that period is over–as evidenced by the blockbuster D23 Expo. Or at the least, it’s over till they “overlook” this lesson and choose to take a position billions within the subsequent NextGen folly. Within the meantime, it needs to be a implausible decade to be a Central Florida theme park fan as each Common and Disney make investments billions upon billions of {dollars} to draw new guests. No matter which aspect “wins” or “loses” within the close to time period, we as followers all win in the long run!
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Your Ideas
What do you consider the TEA International Sights Attendance Report? Ideas on the outcomes for Common Orlando or Walt Disney World? Any coloration commentary of your individual so as to add? Do you agree or disagree with our assessments and forward-looking predictions? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions—even if you disagree with us—is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
