“It’s usually the busiest time of yr, however this summer season has been sluggish at Walt Disney World,” “Take a look at Monitor shouldn’t go down proper as peak season begins,” and “the parks must be packed however our dates had been lifeless” are issues we’ve heard just lately–together with plenty of related sentiment. This comes as no shock, since summer season crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.
The one factor summer season hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first printed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day via Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer season crowds weren’t as dangerous as previously. It supplied a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Whereas quite a bit has modified within the 7 (!!!) years since that submit was printed, its sentiment rings true right now. The reasons for decrease crowds in June and July apply virtually equally in 2024 as they did in 2016-2018. There clearly have been some main modifications over the past a number of years, which is exactly why we’re revisiting this subject. So we’d as properly begin with an “replace” from 2019 via 2023…
As we’ve famous elsewhere, Walt Disney World has not skilled a “regular” summer season in a number of years–since 2018. That is most likely an enormous motive why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer season slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer season has persistently been sluggish over the last 7 years.
There’s additionally the truth that many people Walt Disney World followers are dinosaurs (in a great way!). A few of us are engaged on prolonged timelines, and we are inclined to consult with the third gate because the Disney-MGM Studios (or just “MGM”), nonetheless groan about appetizers and suggestions not being included on the Disney Eating Plan, or assume that they “simply” reimagined Spaceship Earth (the present model is now the longest-running).
No shock that it takes us some time to regulate to modifications in crowd traits–we typically nonetheless consider February or October because the low season, and, because it seems, summer season as peak season.
Let’s begin this recap with Summer season 2019, which was sluggish–very sluggish. That was within the lead-up to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, throughout a window we dubbed the “Pre-Star Wars Stoop.” Mainly, followers had been suspending visits till after that new land opened, leading to summer season being even slower than the (new) regular.
Low attendance and lodge occupancy through the first few months truly pushed Disney to maneuver ahead that land’s debut, which is why it opened with out Rise of the Resistance. (There have been additionally distinctive offers that yr, together with an unprecedented three waves of Free Eating.)
Then there was Summer season 2020. The notorious yr of the COVID closure. June broke data for low crowd ranges…as a result of all 4 parks had been closed. The phased reopening of the theme parks started on July 11, with all 4 Walt Disney World parks reopened by July 15. Even as soon as operational, the parks used reservations and solely allowed 20-30% of their full capability.
That didn’t matter throughout Summer season 2020, because the parks couldn’t even hit that low mark. Suffice to say, the early a part of the phased reopening was considerably slower than even the brand new regular and was an anomaly for apparent causes. Anybody who has blocked what occurred out their reminiscence goes to rightfully disregard wait instances information from the second half of 2020.
Then got here Summer season 2021. That is the place issues get actually attention-grabbing! Vacationers had been anxiously awaiting the tip of well being security protocol, ready to e book holidays. And after months of half-measures and rumors, Walt Disney World ended all COVID-era restrictions on June 15, 2021. The one downside? They didn’t announce these modifications till June 11.
Since there’s a lag between reserving and touring, crowds didn’t actually warmth up till July (versus Florida-wide stats displaying airports and lodges doing blockbuster numbers from early June). From there, wait instances information elevated each single week till early August. I’ll always remember our bonkers July 28 go to to Magic Kingdom, which was the busiest day since March 2020.
That was additionally the day that Walt Disney World introduced they’d reinstate indoor face masks guidelines as of July 30. And with that, the revenge journey celebration got here to a crashing conclusion–or at the least, a brief pause.
Enter Summer season 2022, the “do over” season for pent-up demand. Whereas the peak of the post-COVID journey occurred that winter and spring, your entire yr was busy. That included June and July. Wait instances for each months had been properly above-trend, which was true for actually each single month of 2022.
From my perspective, what’s extra attention-grabbing than than general month-to-month numbers is the trajectory of crowds. Summer season wait instances peaked in early June and decreased persistently from there–the precise reverse of the yr prior! On this case, the explanation was very totally different: rising gasoline costs, inflation, and fears concerning the broader economic system.
Nonetheless, it was a scorching summer season at Walt Disney World by any cheap account. It will thus be silly to match the final two years to 2022 until doing so within the context of the exhaustion of pent-up demand (as we have now performed). In any other case, you run the danger of falling right into a narrative about each season/month/week/day experiencing a slowdown. When actually, it’s a reversion to the imply.
That brings us to Summer season 2023. Final summer season wasn’t that irregular, however did have its personal distinctive wrinkles. The massive one which garnered mainstream media protection was how Independence Day was downright lifeless at Walt Disney World. It was such a scorching subject that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer season in Orlando requirements. He wasn’t improper, however that was additionally solely a part of the story–Disney had overly aggressive ticket blockouts that had been the overriding problem.
Aside from that, what I discovered considerably stunning about final summer season was that it had ‘twin peaks.’ There was one peak exactly whenever you’d count on in a standard (2016-2018) summer season across the final week of June. (It will’ve been early July, however for these blockouts.) However there was one other peak on the finish of July. My finest principle is that this was a ‘final hurrah’ for households wanting to go to earlier than faculty went again into session in August–but it surely’s simply that, a principle.
Regardless, summer season crowd ranges had been decrease throughout the board. Definitely not on par with the low season and even shoulder season, however undoubtedly not what you’d count on in the event you final skilled summer season at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Effectively…as long as you ignore the dreadful climate. Minor asterisk.
In any case of that, we arrive at Summer season 2024. Under is a take a look at weekly wait instances not simply from this yr, however from the beginning of 2022 to indicate pent-up demand in motion, in addition to the exhaustion thereof. (As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.)
Crowds to this point this yr have been in every single place. The primary three months had been busier than anticipated, the primary time there have been month-to-month will increase in wait time averages as in comparison with the prior yr since January 2023. (That means that Jan/Feb/March 2024 had been busier than Jan/Feb/March 2023.) This led us to theorize about Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024–a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand, which means followers visited in 2022, took a yr off, and had been now returning.
The idea didn’t maintain up for lengthy. April dropped like a rock, and though May very well did enhance a bit (as a result of final yr having a really low ground), now June 2024 is down significantly. Final June, the typical wait time was 37 minutes–that’s a 5/10 or average crowd stage. June 2024 is seeing common wait instances of 33 minutes, for a low stage common of three/10. That’s solely a few minutes, but it surely does quantity to 2 ranges–and all provides up over the course of the day.
Most notable is Magic Kingdom, which has a 25 minute common for a crowd stage of 1/10 in June 2024. That is down as in comparison with 31 minutes for 4/10 final yr. (For those who’re questioning concerning the resort-wide vs. Magic Kingdom discrepancy, it’s as a result of common wait instances for every crowd stage fluctuate per park–DHS is the worst, MK is the perfect.) Hollywood Studios has additionally seen an enormous drop. On the different finish of the spectrum, EPCOT is comparatively unchanged. Proof optimistic that folks truly love CommuniCore Corridor? Or perhaps they simply hate Big Dust Pits?!
It’s additionally value stating that wait instances are additionally growing as of this week, with right now (June 19, 2024) having crowd ranges of 5/10. Though three days is just too early to name it a pattern, this gradual enhance is exactly what we’d count on to see occurring within the two weeks main as much as Independence Day, with a gradual downslope within the two weeks after.
With that clarification and up to date historical past out of the way in which, let’s speak theories as to why summer season is slower now (2016-2019; 2023-2024) than it was again within the day…
The largest motive for decrease crowds through the summer season is pricing. This was extra apparent again once we first printed this submit, because the pattern turned very seen within the couple of years after Walt Disney World moved to seasonal ticket pricing. That solely accelerated as soon as date-based charges had been launched for multi-day tickets, and with summer season being one of many costlier instances of the yr.
Anyway, for each tickets and lodge rooms, summer season pricing tends to be properly above-average from Memorial Day via the primary weekend of August. To make sure, there are occasions when room charges and ticket costs spike greater (a lot greater), notably round holidays and spring break. Nevertheless, no different multi-month interval has the identical sustained stage of upper costs.
Recognizing the truth that summer season costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of massive reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating supply.
All of that has undoubtedly moved the needle for 2024 (which means numbers could be even worse however for these promos!), but it surely’s nonetheless not sufficient. The typical customer to Walt Disney World doesn’t do a lot planning–many take a look at costs on the web site as soon as, and if that’s out of their funds, they don’t go to.
For a lot of guests, the elevated costs in June and July are important. Between lodges and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer season trip could possibly be over $1,000 for a household of 5, and that’s sufficient to justify suspending a go to for many individuals. Even a 1-day summer season go to may price an additional $100 or so for a household.
In fact, it additionally doesn’t matter for some households. Summer season is probably the most handy time for them to go to as a result of faculty breaks, in order that’s once they go. That is the rationale for summer season being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer season has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.
Nevertheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of faculty, studying (and dealing!) remotely, households are much less “afraid” to tug their children out of faculty for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle.
There has undoubtedly been a normalization of crowd ranges, and distant faculty/work together with hybrid work/play journeys are among the many main explanations. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly readers who do precisely this. We will’t again it up with onerous stats, but it surely passes the scent check and appears extremely believable to us.
This brings us to the following large issue, which is climate. Floridians keep residence when the forecast turns unseasonably scorching, humid or wet. Vacationers can not shortly pivot and people already booked gained’t cancel–however they’ll possible spend much less time within the parks per day. Equally as important, they could possibly be shifting journeys away from the summer season months, as a result of extra reviews of oppressive climate.
Issues had been fairly dangerous final summer season. The Orlando space noticed record-setting highs on a number of events, and had temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “seems like” temperatures properly above 100º. In that sort of warmth, you may also guess that many Annual Passholders opted to skip their weekend day journey.
In fact, it’s no information that summer season is unbearably scorching and humid in Central Florida. This isn’t a current improvement, so that you may argue that it shouldn’t quantity to a change. Nevertheless, the final couple summers have been particularly brutal, and as extra folks avail themselves of on-line planning sources, vacationers grow to be extra cognizant of simply how scorching and humid summers are in Florida.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to tug children out of faculty, and there’s a situation the place households have data and incentive to not go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
After brutal climate final June via August, I questioned the knowledge of visiting this time of yr. And but, we did once more for previews of Tiana’s Bayou Journey…simply as one other warmth wave arrived. Whereas I “should” return for analysis throughout all months of the yr, summer season is completely undesirable for a household trip.
One other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer season numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Huge World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. At the least, not with out dire penalties because of the warmth and humidity.
EPCOT additionally doesn’t have a summer season competition for the primary time since 2020, a transfer that basically shocked us–we actually anticipated one thing for the launch of CommuniCore. Regardless, this should be primarily based within the sensible actuality that summer season festivals merely will not be as fashionable with locals or vacationers. They’re not “value it” for Disney to run.
Then there’s the Disney Conferences enterprise for company occasions, which has fewer excessive profile conventions on the summer season schedule. Whereas I can not communicate to it with authority, I’d assume Disney Weddings is the same story. (It’s additionally not as impactful on attendance both means.)
There are possible different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer season attendance has been down. Different elements is perhaps at play, and in mixture might have a noticeable impression, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
Lastly, there’s the chance that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to cut back abuse and misuse is having a optimistic impression on wait instances. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, and it’ll occur. Truthfully, I’m sort of shocked by all the cynicism about this being solely to push extra Lightning Lane gross sales. That’ll additionally occur, but it surely’s each.
As we’ve mentioned repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum recreation. You probably have one class of visitors benefitting disproportionately from a sure system, whether or not that be DAS or Lightning Lanes, there may be essentially one other class, standby visitors, who’re deprived. This isn’t even theoretical! Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled visitors previously, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony.
Regardless, I don’t assume the crackdown is considerably transferring the needle but. Effectively, it most likely is as of the final week or so, but it surely wasn’t like flipping a change the day that the DAS modifications rolled out. It will take time for uptake and the brand new DAS customers to work their means via the system. That’ll undoubtedly be a contributing issue to decrease year-over-year wait instances from the second half of June and past, although.
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Tiana’s Bayou Journey opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of visitors postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They had been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an attention-grabbing subject in and of itself (one in all my theories is that the complexity of accessing new points of interest has given visitors chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this submit. Regardless, I’ve a really troublesome time believing that Tiana’s Bayou Journey has extra drawing energy than both of these. (Nation Bear Musical Jamboree, then again…)
If we’re theorizing about postponed journeys for brand new issues, I’d be inclined to say that Epic Universe is having a much more important impression on Walt Disney World than Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Although that’s at Common Orlando, there’s apparent overlap, and a brand new park has far more drawing energy than a reimagined trip.
Furthermore, Common’s summer season slowdown is much more pronounced than Walt Disney World’s (2024 vs. 2023 per wait instances information). That’s precisely what you’d count on to see if a significant variety of persons are delaying visits–a significant impression on Common and spillover at Walt Disney World.
Finally, it’s true that wait instances have been below-average to this point in Summer season 2024, with crowd ranges of round 3/10. It’s additionally true that this isn’t actually a current improvement. That’s, until you’re evaluating to the pent-up demand interval, through which case we may have articles about each single time of the yr, contending that [insert month] is now low season. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a number of years pre-COVID closures, and why it appears notable this yr is as a result of issues have been irregular for thus many summers that it’s onerous to recollect what regular even is nowadays.
Earlier than you learn all of this and assume that summer season out of the blue seems like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. For those who beforehand dominated out a summer season trip to Walt Disney World, contemplate the chance that you simply did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a foul time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at residence.” That’s true as all the time.
What I’ll say is that no matter “positive aspects” you’ll expertise throughout summer season at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait instances can be worn out by subjectively inferior every thing else. For those who pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation.
Not simply because I like Christmas, however as a result of I do know I may overcome the upper crowd ranges by advantage of excellent technique or, fairly merely, spending extra hours within the parks per day due to much less weather-induced fatigue. Said in another way, it’s infinitely simpler to beat the crowds than it’s the climate.
For those who’re already wanting ahead to Summer season 2025, hoping for the same situation, it’s most likely value stating that “summer season shouldn’t be peak season” shouldn’t be the identical as “summer season is low season.” On the contrary, the shoulder season (post-Spring Break via Memorial Day) and early fall low season (mid-August after faculties return into session via fall break in late September or early October) are nonetheless slower than summer season. June and July are not two of the busiest months of the yr, as they as soon as had been. That doesn’t imply they’re two of the slowest. There are different choices moreover these extremes.
Within the near-term, I additionally wouldn’t rely on Walt Disney World’s summer season crowds staying this low. Wait instances and attendance are virtually actually going to regularly begin growing heading into the tip of this month, particularly since Disney didn’t make the identical mistake with ticket blockouts for Independence Day 2024 and Free Eating ‘season’ begins quickly. As famous above, crowd ranges are already reaching the 5/10 or average vary, and I wouldn’t be in the least shocked to see 7/10 days earlier than the month is over and thru mid-July.
My expectation is that 3/10 crowd ranges are within the rearview mirror for this summer season, to not be seen once more till the second week of August. For those who wished mild crowds and excessive warmth, you most likely already missed your window of alternative. Effectively, not for the latter…however that’s most likely not a lot of a silver lining.
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer season crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree completely, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits through the fall months that comply with this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
